2017 season preview: The verdict
2016 was the best season for the Canberra Raiders since 1995, more than 20 years. 1995 was the last time the Raiders finished in second position on the ladder and made a Preliminary Final in a full competition. In 2016, Canberra just missed a Grand Final appearance. Along the way, all sorts of records were broken. The Raiders won 10 matches in a row, the most in club history during a single season. They scored the most points ever in a season. Jarrod Croker broke the all time Raiders point scoring record; he scored more points than any other Raider in a single season. Jordan Rapana scored more tries than any other Raider in a single season. So as the New Year starts, what might the 2017 season bring the Green Machine?
In the final part of our season preview, we give our overall verdict. We've previously featured recruitment and retention, the spine, the forwards and the backs.
Coaching
Canberra Raiders mentor Ricky Stuart won the 2016 Dally M Coach of the Year. It is often an award that goes to the coach of the surprise packets - the team that performed better than everyone expected. In fact, in the NRL era, only four winners of the Coach of the Year also coached their team to the premiership: Trent Robinson in 2013, Tim Sheens in 2005, Steve Folkes in 2004 and Wayne Bennett in 2000.
Coaching the Raiders to second place on the ladder came as a surprise to Stuart as well. After the loss to the Melbourne Storm in a Preliminary Final last season Stuart said: "I'd be lying if I said I expected this. If anybody said they'd expected us to be No. 2 in the competition this year and be playing in a prelim, you'd think they were dancing with the fairies."
But after that Preliminary Final loss he was also looking to the future - with optimism.
"Our hurt now is the start of a really, really competitive era for the Canberra Raiders. This loss will help us achieve success in the near future. We have to learn from this loss. It's not something we throw away and think, 'Oh well, that's over now'.
"The way we play the game has given rugby league another injection of energy and enthusiasm purely through our players. I'm so proud of the season. We're not going away empty handed. We'll get something out of this."
I said in this preview last year Stuart has many critics, seemingly right across the NRL. Eels fans, in particular, still seem to be bitter after he left the Eels after a single season to return to his home town. Remember Round 6 when the Raiders went to Parramatta Stadium last year?
It was a smash up on the field. Kieran Foran and Corey Norman cut loose and the Eels led 24-0 at half time. At one stage Foran dummied and stepped, finding an embarrassingly easy passage to the line. It ended at 36-6, with the Raiders fortunate to get on the board. In the final minute, the Eels fans started a long chant... Ricky... Ricky... Ricky... and stood and pointed at the Raiders' coach's box.
But how good was it when the Raiders fans - and the players in the sheds - were doing the same after the Round 24 victory over the Eels? It was appreciation for what he'd done to rebuild the Green Machine into a genuine premiership threat. He and the club endured two seasons of missing the finals. There were some tough decisions made in changing the roster. But what a turnaround he's achieved in just three seasons - in terms of the squad, performance and the culture of the club. He was deservedly Coach of the Year.
The assistant coaches were a critical part of the success of 2016. Mick Crawley re-joined the Raiders as attacking assistant in 2015. He was an assistant to Neil Henry both at the Raiders (2007-08) and the Cowboys (2009-11) and then to Wayne Bennett at the Newcastle Knights (2012-14). Since his return, the attack has built into the best in the league. In 2016, the Raiders scored more points (736) in a season than in any other in the Canberra club's history. Can it get any better? Amazingly, perhaps it can, given it was the first season that the Raiders spine has played together.
Defence has been Canberra's weakest point in recent years. In 2015, the Raiders had the fifth worst defence in the league. That improved to seventh best in 2016 and only the Storm ended up with a superior points differential. However, the seventh placing masks an improvement over the season in the defence. In the last third of the season, the Raiders conceded an average of 14 points per match. In the first third of the season, they conceded an average of over 22 points per match. Fourteen points per match is a statistic that comes with premierships. Defensive coach Dean Pay clearly deserves a lot of credit. What's now needed is a season of consistently delivering that strong defence.
COACHING RATING: A
Pre-season
The Raiders start their pre-season with a trip to New Zealand for the fourth annual Auckland Nines tournament on 4-5 February. In 2016, the Raiders put in their best showing in the Nines so far, with a quarter finals appearance against the Warriors. They had wins over the Dragons and Sharks, defeating Cronulla by the exact margin (12) needed to progress to the quarters on points difference. Canberra has named a team for 2017 that is short on top players - and includes players still on train and trial contracts. It remains to be seen if the NRL approves that. But it will be a chance to see a few players for the first time in green - like Jordan Turner, Eddie Aiono, Brent Naden, Scott Sorensen and Dunamis Lui. The most intriguing selection is Paul Roache - a young Auckland player who has a rugby union background. It's only come to light in the past week that he's been training with the Green Machine.
Auckland Nines squad: Jeff Lima (c), Zac Santo, Eddie Aiono, Thomas Cronan, Brent Naden, Nick Cotric, Blake Austin, Aidan Sezer, Dunamis Lui, Adam Clydsdale, Luke Bateman, Scott Sorensen, Jordan Turner, Paul Roache, Mark McCormack, Anthony Moraitis, Makahesi Makatoa, Topi Tafua
The Raiders have four representatives in the 2017 All Stars in Newcastle: Joey Leilua and Jordan Turner in the World team and Jack Wighton and Aidan Sezer in the Indigenous team. It was a surprise to see Turner selected, given he's not yet played a match in the NRL as yet... but it'll be a chance for Raiders fans to see how he handles a 13 a side match.
The Raiders again have just one trial match in 2017. They meet the Newcastle Knights at Seiffert Oval, Queanbeyan and it's the second return to the Raiders' birthplace in recent years. For those who can't make it to Queanbeyan, it is expected that the match will be live streamed on line.
Saturday 4 February 3:05pm NZ 1:05pm AEDT NRL Auckland Nines Canberra Raiders v South Sydney
Saturday 4 February 6:35pm NZ 4:35pm AEDT NRL Auckland Nines Canberra Raiders v North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday 5 February 1:30pm NZ 11:30am AEDT NRL Auckland Nines Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters
Friday 10 February 7:30pm Indigenous All Stars V World All Stars Hunter Stadium
Saturday 18 February 6:30pm NRL Trial Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights
NRL draw
Last year, the pre-season discussion was all about how "easy" the Raiders draw was. This year, it's all about how tough the Raiders' draw is.
In 2016, the Raiders played every team that missed the 2015 finals twice and only two of the 2015 top eight – the Bulldogs and Sharks. However, 2016 wasn't as easy as it looked because the Raiders ended up playing four of the 2016 top eight twice - the Panthers, Titans, Bulldogs and Sharks. So "easy" draws and "tough" draws are not always what they seem.
But at this stage, the 2017 draw does look tougher than last year, with Canberra playing each of the five teams that finished in the top six in 2016 twice. They play just half of the 2016 bottom eight twice. NRL.com rates the Raiders' draw as the fourth most difficult, assessing the opponents on the 2016 finish and the 2017 premiership betting market.
Play twice: Cowboys, Sharks, Broncos, Eels, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Knights, Panthers, Storm
Play once: Tigers, Titans, Bulldogs, Roosters, Dragons, Rabbitohs
Play at home: Sharks, Wests Tigers, Eels, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons, Storm, Panthers, Knights
Play away: Cowboys, Broncos, Titans, Bulldogs, Knights, Eels, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Warriors, Storm
Home stretches: Canberra has five home games in the opening eight rounds. In the space of six matches between Rounds 9-14, the Raiders have just one home game, against the Roosters. Then in the six rounds from Round 15-20, they do not travel, with four home games and two byes. The two final home games are in Round 24-25.
Time slots: Thursday night 0, Friday night early 1, Friday night late 2, Saturday afternoon 0, Saturday night 11, Sunday afternoon 4.
Television: FTA TV: 4 All matches on STV.
Turnarounds: Five days 1 (Rounds 3-4), six days 3, seven days or longer 13.
Origin disruptions: In Round 12, the Raiders will be without any Origin representatives when they meet the Sydney Roosters prior to Origin I - and will have players backing up in Round 13 against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale (four day turnaround). Canberra has the bye prior to both Origin II and III. They will have players backing up in Round 16 against the Broncos (three day turnaround) and in Round 19 against the Dragons (two day turnaround). Both games are at Canberra Stadium.
Matches to watch: It's an enormous start to the season for the Raiders. First, they face fellow 2016 Preliminary Finalist, the North Queensland Cowboys away. Then in Round 2, the Raiders face the 2016 premier Cronulla at Canberra Stadium. There's plenty of dislike between the Raiders and Sharks - and certainly their fans - after the events of recent years. Paul Gallen accusing Josh Papalii of a "dog shot" in 2012 right up to Michael Ennis mocking the Viking Clap after the Raiders' two point semi final loss in 2016... there's lots of tension between the camps. Genuine grudge match. In Round 4, the Raiders will be desperate to take away a win in a huge Friday night clash against the Broncos at Lang Park. In Round 20, the Melbourne Storm visit the nation's capital, when Canberra will want to avenge the Preliminary Final loss of 2016... before meeting them again in the final round of the regular season in Melbourne.
Far flung: As usual, the Raiders go on more long road trips than average, given the NRL pits Sydney teams against each other. Not only that, the Raiders are again being taken by Penrith to Bathurst for a Panthers home match. There are flying visits to Townsville, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Auckland and Melbourne and another long road trip to Newcastle. The plus side is that the Raiders now actually seem to thrive on the away game "camps". Canberra won seven away matches and drew one in 2016. That compares to the home record of 10 wins from 12 in the regular season.
In Sydney, there are unusually three matches at the Olympic Stadium at Homebush - with the Bulldogs and Rabbitohs playing both their home games against Canberra at their regular ground. The Eels are temporary residents at the ground as well. Away matches against the Sea Eagles and Sharks will be the only games at traditional Sydney suburban grounds.
Round 1: Saturday 4 March 7:00pm 6:00pm (local) North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders 1300Smiles Stadium
Round 2: Saturday 11 March 7:30pm Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks Canberra Stadium
Round 3: Sunday 19 March 4:00pm Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers Canberra Stadium
Round 4: Friday 24 March 8:05pm 7:05pm (local) Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders Lang Park
Round 5: Saturday 1 April 5:30pm Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels Canberra Stadium
Round 6: Saturday 8 April 5:30pm Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders Robina Stadium
Round 7: Saturday 15 April 5:30pm Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors Canberra Stadium
Round 8: Friday 21 April 6:00pm Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles Canberra Stadium
Round 9: Saturday 29 April 5:30pm Canterbury Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders Stadium Australia
Round 10: Sunday 14 May 2:00pm Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders Hunter Stadium
Round 11: Saturday 20 May 7:30pm Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders Stadium Australia
Round 12: Sunday 28 May 4:00pm Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters Canberra Stadium
Round 13: Sunday 4 June 2:00pm Manly Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders Brookvale Oval
Round 14: Saturday 10 June 5:30pm Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders Carrington Park Bathurst
Round 15: Canberra Raiders BYE
Round 16: Saturday 24 June 5:30pm Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos Canberra Stadium
Round 17: Saturday 1 July 7:30pm Canberra Raiders v North Queensland Cowboys Canberra Stadium
Round 18: Canberra Raiders BYE
Round 19: Friday 14 July 7:50pm Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons Canberra Stadium
Round 20: Saturday 22 July 5:30pm Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm Canberra Stadium
Round 21: 27-30 July TBA South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders Stadium Australia
Round 22: 3-6 August TBA Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders Shark Park
Round 23: 10-13 August TBA New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders Mt Smart Stadium
Round 24: 17-20 August TBA Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers Canberra Stadium
Round 25: 24-27 August TBA Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights Canberra Stadium
Round 26: 31 August-3 September TBA Melbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders Melbourne Park
8-10 September NRL Finals Week 1
15-16 September NRL Finals Week 2
22-23 September NRL Finals Week 3
Sunday 1 October NRL Grand Final Stadium Australia
Rookie to watch
Nick Cotric
What didn't Nick Cotric do in 2016? In 2015 he won the Raiders SG Ball Player’s Player Award alongside Kalani Going before moving up to the Holden Cup squad. He'd also previously represented NSW in Under 16s and was named in the Australian Schoolboys Under 15s merit team. In 2016, he represented in the NSW u18 State of Origin Team and the ASSRL Australian Schoolboys, playing two Tests against the England Academy. He scored two tries in the Second test and earning the Man of the Match Award.
At the season's end he was selected, still aged 17, in the 2016 Holden Cup Team of the Year. He was named the Junior Representatives Player of the Year at this year's Meninga Medal ceremony. He's just turned 18 and is now already with the Raiders top squad. He extended his contract with Canberra this year and is with the Green Machine until the end of 2018. Here's another plus... as a Valley Dragons junior, there's no chance of him getting homesick! Time to get excited Raiders fans!
Strongest squad
The Raiders have one of their most settled squads in years. The only problem is the injury to interchange hooker Kurt Baptiste, which will see him miss the start of the season, and possibly a significant part of the season.
1. Jack Wighton
2. Edrick Lee
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Shannon Boyd
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Junior Paulo
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Iosia Soliola
14. Jordan Turner/Kurt Baptiste*
15. Luke Bateman
16. Joseph Tapine
17. Dave Taylor**
* Kurt Baptiste will miss the start of the 2017 season with an Achilles injury.
** Dave Taylor is still to formally secure a contract.
The verdict
Predicted finish: 1st to 4th
I rated the Raiders as "top eight... but the bottom half of the top eight" in my 2016 preview. This season I've gone for an overall "A" rating, which translates to a top four finish. It's a fool hardy exercise tipping specific ladder finishes - and once a team finishes in a top four, anything can happen. But you know what? I'm getting off the fence. I'm tipping a premiership. It's been more than 20 years since a Raiders title. 2017. It's our time.
SPINE RATING: A
FORWARDS RATING: A+
BACKS RATING: A
RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION RATING: B+
COACHING RATING: A
OVERALL RATING: A
Do you agree with our ratings? Where do you think the Raiders will finish in 2017? Let us know here.
