Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
Saturday June 24 5:30pm, Gates open 3:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. Areas of morning frost. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Min - Max 12
Round 14 2017. A 24-20 last gasp loss. It was, sadly, one of the worst in Raiders history. Canberra led by eight points with around two minutes remaining. A try was almost scored by Nick Cotric after a kick to the corner. The Penrith Panthers then proceeded to score two four pointers, with Matt Moylan calling the shots. It was gut wrenching, heart breaking. We saw it, but it was hard to believe it happened, inconceivable.
2017 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
More on Round 14: As I saw it
The Raiders have had the bye weekend to put that behind them, and they now meet the Brisbane Broncos at home in Round 16. Josh Papalii will back up from State of Origin duty for the Raiders, while Shannon Boyd returns from injury at starting prop. Luke Bateman drops back to the bench, with Royce Hunt named on the reserves list. For the Broncos, Anthony Milford (dislocated shoulder) is replaced at five-eighth by Benji Marshall, with Ben Hunt named in the top 17 on the bench. Darius Boyd, Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire will back up from Origin II.
Late changes: Lachlan Croker and Scott Sorensen were omitted on Friday from the Raiders squad, with Dave Taylor and Royce Hunt remaining on the reserves list. The Broncos reshuffled their top 17, with injury to Darius Boyd, moving Jordan Kahu to fullback, and bringing David Mead onto the wing. Jayden Su'A has also dropped out of the Broncos' squad, but there's still no official announcement about which other reserve has been omitted.
Matt's Match-ups: Which players win the skins?
Franko's Five: Five things the Raiders should do to beat the Broncos
History: The Canberra Raiders have won just 19 of 50 matches against the Brisbane Broncos and drawn one. They have won just three of the last 10 matches - and the last four in a row. That includes an an agonising one point loss to the Broncos at Lang Park in Round 4 earlier this year. The Raiders lost the only clash last year, 28-18, in Round 14 - after the Broncos went out to a 24-0 lead after 45 minutes.
The Raiders have won 12 of 23 matches played at Canberra Stadium, and drawn one. The Broncos won't have too many concerns about playing in Canberra, having won their last two matches in the national capital.
2017 Round 4 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
2016 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
In this week's "History Happens", we go back to Round 2 of 2010. It was a 22-14 win at Canberra Stadium, in front of 14,200 people... and it was all topped off by a try to Josh McCrone in the final seconds!
2010 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
Form: The Raiders have a LWWLL record in the past five matches, while the Broncos have a WWLLW form line. The Broncos have lost to both the Warriors and the Roosters in recent weeks, while they managed to hold on against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, 24-18, in their last start.
Betting: The Raiders are favourites in this week's match, paying $1.53. The Broncos are paying $2.58 - and have 5.5 points start.
Stat attack: It's a match up between fourth and 10th on the competition ladder - with the Broncos having won nine, the Raiders just six.
Attack: The Raiders rank third in the league for average points (22.6) and equal third for average tries scored (3.9). The Broncos rank sixth for points (21.5) and seventh for tries scored (3.6).
The Broncos average a 52 per cent share of possession (the Raiders 49 per cent) and have a better completion rate than the Raiders (76-73 per cent). Only the Sharks have a worse completion rate than the Raiders - and that says more about the grittiness of the second placed Sharks than anything. Both teams receive 15 per cent more penalties than they concede - and around 11 errors per match.
The Broncos are top of the league for running metres (1525 per match, 1398 for the Raiders). Both average 9.3 metres per run - but the Broncos average two more sets with the ball per match than the Raiders. Brisbane also rank second for kicking metres, Canberra 14th (520 per match, 406 for the Raiders).
No team makes more tackle breaks than the Raiders (34 per match) - but the Broncos are still top four (31). The Raiders also produce more try assists (3.6-3.2 per match) and line breaks (4.8-4.6 per match) - while the Broncos make more offloads (10.9-10.3 per match). However, there's not much difference in any of that.
Defence: The Broncos have the better defence, ranking third in the league - the Raiders ninth. They concede just over 16 points (2.8 tries) per match - while Canberra concedes over 19 (3.4 tries) per match. The Broncos concede more running metres than the Raiders (1443-1396 metres per match) - which partly offsets their advantage in metres gained. The Raiders miss fewer tackles (24 per match, compared to 27.2 for the Broncos), but the tackle efficiency for the two teams is line ball. Both teams concede around 3.5 line breaks per match, and the Raiders concede around one more offload per match.
Our tip: Most of the statistics point in favour of a Broncos win in this one. Their attack is in the same ball park as the Raiders, and they are a better defensive outfit. However, there was only one point difference between the teams when they met earlier in the year. And when you look at the points differential for the two teams, the gap is not as large as ladder positions suggest. The Broncos are +76, the Raiders are +46.
The other variables are State of Origin and injury. Canberra has one player backing up, the Broncos three. With Shannon Boyd's return, the Broncos are probably more affected by injury as well. I said last week that the Raiders are not performing to their potential and not performing consistently. That's still the case. But I think Canberra, at home on a winter's night, will be the more desperate to win. Raiders by four.
What they're saying:
Josh Hodgson: "We spoke a bit about game management before Penrith but in a couple key areas we just lost the plot a little bit, two breaks costs us two tries and it can happen as quick as that in this league. We're definitely learning but it would just be nice to win a few of these close ones, especially those golden point ones. Losing a few late can affect your back end of the year so we definitely know we need to fix things up.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Shannon Boyd
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Sia Soliola
14. Kurt Baptiste
15. Luke Bateman
16. Clay Priest
17. Joe Tapine
19. Royce Hunt
20. Dave Taylor
Brisbane Broncos
5. Jordan Kahu
2. Corey Oates
3. James Roberts
4. Tautau Moga
21. David Mead
6. Benji Marshall
7. Kodi Nikorima
8. Korbin Sims
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Adam Blair
11. Sam Thaiday
12. Matt Gillett
13. Josh McGuire
14. Alex Glenn
15. Tevita Pangai
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. Ben Hunt
18. Jai Arrow
20. Herman Essese
22. Jonus Pearson
Officials:
Referees: Henry Perenara, Chris James
Sideline Officials: Dave Ryan, Russell Turner
Video Referees: Luke Patten, Jared Maxwell
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersBroncos
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
NSW Premiership teams: Click here
Holden Cup teams: Click here
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