Coronavirus

[gangrenous]

Doc, I did some number crunching of my own today, and it’s rough to be totally clear, but I couldn’t find the actual data anywhere else.

I used ‘current hospitalised’ numbers from June to now, added each day ‘higher’ numbers as new that day, and compared that with daily covid cases. Seems for the first few weeks we were averaging somewhere 6-8% of daily cases being hospitalised, now currently somewhere 2-3% of daily cases.

Does that sound legit? I’d imagine that the increase in vaccinations in the last 2 months would be starting to have SOME effect, it’s obviously not going to be a magic switch at 70% vac rate.

I think you have other factors at play in your data here.

Early on cases are more likely to be identified through being symptomatic -> they have higher likelihood of hospitalisation

As you increase the number of people getting preemptively tested due to being a contact, or regular screening, you recognise more asymptomatic cases. Early detection also introduces early intervention. Hospitalisation relative to cases drops.

[Dr Zaius]

We've often heard about Israel being one of the leaders in vaccination rates. Supposed to be around 70% of the population but hard to work out exact numbers because total population includes 0-15 year olds. Delta strain is running through the place at the moment and getting around 1000 cases per day. Total active cases at 62,000 in a population of 9 million.

The interesting numbers are how many are listed as Serious, which is currently 600 out of those 62,000. Apparently a big chunk of the cases are being spread through children. That would certainly be a factor in the lower numbers of serious cases. A recent sample of the seriously ill cases had around 70% being unvaccinated, 21% partially vaccinated and 9% fully vaccinated.

Of course we don't all the detail of these numbers so any analysis based on the raw figures will be flawed. Regardless we can deduce that vaccination will significantly reduce the impact of COVID. However there will still be an impact.

Precisely. There are about 20 million Australians over 16. 20% of those unvaccinated is 4 million. Conservatively, 1/4 of them get covid next year - 1 million. 5% admission rate - 50,000. 0.3% die - 3000.

Small percentages of large numbers are still large numbers.

Friend of mine reckons Government should set a date in future and say everything reopens from that point. It's then up to the individual whether they get vaccinated or not. Those who choose not to can take their chances with COVID.

That's what the UK did. It works on the assumption of a competant roll out and thst everyone has had a chance to get jabbed by Freedom Day.

One things for sure, there will be less antivaxxers by the end of 2022, one way or another.

[Dr Zaius]

As a doctor in a COVID unit, I’m running out of compassion for the unvaccinated. Get the shot

Last year, a case like this would have flattened me. I would have wrestled with the sadness and how unfair life was. Battled with the angst of how unlucky he was. This year, I struggled to find sympathy. It was August 2021, not 2020. The vaccine had been widely available for months in the U.S., free to anyone who wanted it, even offered in drugstores and supermarkets. Cutting-edge, revolutionary, mind-blowing, lifesaving vaccines were available where people shopped for groceries, and they still didn’t want them.

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2 ... ssion=true

[Manbush]

It’s frustrating enough for non doctors I can’t imagine how much more it would be for those actually dealing with the cases.

I had an argument over vaccinations with a manager from another branch, the indoctrination and crazy coming from an otherwise reasonable person was insane I didn’t realise how far gone she was until she told me to watch a video. After looking who made it and discovering it was a QAnon production I just laughed and gave up.

Some people are just too far gone, nothing will convince them.

[RedRaider]

As a doctor in a COVID unit, I’m running out of compassion for the unvaccinated. Get the shot

Last year, a case like this would have flattened me. I would have wrestled with the sadness and how unfair life was. Battled with the angst of how unlucky he was. This year, I struggled to find sympathy. It was August 2021, not 2020. The vaccine had been widely available for months in the U.S., free to anyone who wanted it, even offered in drugstores and supermarkets. Cutting-edge, revolutionary, mind-blowing, lifesaving vaccines were available where people shopped for groceries, and they still didn’t want them.

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2 ... ssion=true

Once the 80% fully vaccinated level is reached in Australia, I think the messaging with place heavy emphasis on stats that show the worst affected are the unvaccinated. Hopefully that message will hit home. There will be people who cannot have the vaccines for medical reasons but they are few in number. That will leave a rump of anti-vaxxers which I think will be much less that 20% of the population. Even so, I don't know of any nation which has the Delta variant under control at this point in time. Even at the 80% vaccination level, I think the wearing of masks, social distancing and hand washing/sanitizing will be with us for some time. I am still concerned that there is no vaccine approved for kids under the age of 12.

[irvste]

Read some random Houston chronical report suggesting unvaccinated people should have to pay 100% hospital costs without insurance coverage if they get covid

Likened it to not getting insurance if u burn your own house down.. Can't see that happening here but if Vax passports and no Medicare and no health insurance can't convince an anti vaxxer nothing would

Sent from my SM-G781B using Tapatalk

[MrPosh]

Australia now has over 10million first vaccine doses and 5.5million second vaccine doses given. More than 279,000 doses given yesterday. Still a long way to go but acceleration continuing.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout

And sadly, thanks to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, huge numbers of Australians have been left with no option but to take a vaccine that risks very serious side effects. The massive failure of the federal government's COVID vaccine program is shown here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ases-today

Is this still a thing?

I thought that massive study in Catalonia showed there was no difference in the vaccines for side effects.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astraze ... dy-1127179

[greeneyed]

Australia now has over 10million first vaccine doses and 5.5million second vaccine doses given. More than 279,000 doses given yesterday. Still a long way to go but acceleration continuing.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout

And sadly, thanks to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, huge numbers of Australians have been left with no option but to take a vaccine that risks very serious side effects. The massive failure of the federal government's COVID vaccine program is shown here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ases-today

Is this still a thing?

I thought that massive study in Catalonia showed there was no difference in the vaccines for side effects.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astraze ... dy-1127179

Don’t think there’s any such thing as a “massive study in Catalonia”. The warnings about AstraZeneca are pretty clear.

[Coastalraider]

Doc, I did some number crunching of my own today, and it’s rough to be totally clear, but I couldn’t find the actual data anywhere else.

I used ‘current hospitalised’ numbers from June to now, added each day ‘higher’ numbers as new that day, and compared that with daily covid cases. Seems for the first few weeks we were averaging somewhere 6-8% of daily cases being hospitalised, now currently somewhere 2-3% of daily cases.

Does that sound legit? I’d imagine that the increase in vaccinations in the last 2 months would be starting to have SOME effect, it’s obviously not going to be a magic switch at 70% vac rate.

I think you have other factors at play in your data here.

Early on cases are more likely to be identified through being symptomatic -> they have higher likelihood of hospitalisation

As you increase the number of people getting preemptively tested due to being a contact, or regular screening, you recognise more asymptomatic cases. Early detection also introduces early intervention. Hospitalisation relative to cases drops.

Yep, 100% agree there are factors that I can’t track that’s for sure. The other is that the data I have only shows current cases, but I can’t track when someone is released. Now with a 5-6 week hospitalisation that’s not as big an error over an 8 week period as I first though, but it’s still an error.

[MrPosh]

Australia now has over 10million first vaccine doses and 5.5million second vaccine doses given. More than 279,000 doses given yesterday. Still a long way to go but acceleration continuing.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout

And sadly, thanks to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, huge numbers of Australians have been left with no option but to take a vaccine that risks very serious side effects. The massive failure of the federal government's COVID vaccine program is shown here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ases-today

Is this still a thing?

I thought that massive study in Catalonia showed there was no difference in the vaccines for side effects.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astraze ... dy-1127179

Don’t think there’s any such thing as a “massive study in Catalonia”. The warnings about AstraZeneca are pretty clear.

It was more than a million people, so it's certainly bigger than anything else and enough to be statistically significant.

The study shows no greater threat from AZ than there is Pfizer.

[gangrenous]

I responded to your post earlier.

One million is dwarfed by the results of people getting it in the world. That’s your study.

One million people studying effects that occur in around 1 in 100000 are prone to noise and random fluctuations. You only expect ~10 cases.

[greeneyed]

Australia now has over 10million first vaccine doses and 5.5million second vaccine doses given. More than 279,000 doses given yesterday. Still a long way to go but acceleration continuing.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout

And sadly, thanks to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, huge numbers of Australians have been left with no option but to take a vaccine that risks very serious side effects. The massive failure of the federal government's COVID vaccine program is shown here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ases-today

Is this still a thing?

I thought that massive study in Catalonia showed there was no difference in the vaccines for side effects.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astraze ... dy-1127179

Don’t think there’s any such thing as a “massive study in Catalonia”. The warnings about AstraZeneca are pretty clear.

It was more than a million people, so it's certainly bigger than anything else and enough to be statistically significant.

The study shows no greater threat from AZ than there is Pfizer.

There’s a fair bit of discussion of it above. The real world experiences of many times the size are a better guide. Medical authorities around the world are setting rules and giving advice on relative safety on the basis of that. Even on Australian experience we know we have seven deaths attributed to AstraZeneca blood clotting. In relative terms, Pfizer is clearly safer. Seems to be more effective too.

[Off]

But the government tells me I should have AZ and not to listen to an independent body set up that look in to these things.

[Azza]

That's because they want you dead.

[greeneyed]

12 new cases, 11 are linked to existing cases, one under investigation: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14329

47 per cent of the ACT cases are in the 0-17 age group, which is deeply saddening, as vaccinations have not yet been approved for children under 12.

18000 odd close contacts, 5000 secondary contacts. Getting up to 25,000 in quarantine.

Just watching 7 News... it appears third jabs are going to be required as efficacy falls after three months.

[Azza]

This sucks Steven

[-PJ-]

Welcome to Gladystan..

[FuiFui BradBrad]

11 people test positive after attending an illegal beach party in Maroubra.
But I thought there was no issue with people hanging out on the beach?

Police have no info on party... imagine my surprise

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... d829d58b8b

[Mickey_Raider]

11 people test positive after attending an illegal beach party in Maroubra.
But I thought there was no issue with people hanging out on the beach?

Police have no info on party... imagine my surprise

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... d829d58b8b

Are there people who seriously think that COVID does not transmit outdoors?

**** used your brain. The limo driver passed it to a lady at an outdoor cafe to start this whole thing ****.

Obviously there is a lower transmission risk being outside than being indoors.

But its so painfully obvious that it depends on the context. If you're outside having a beach party in Maroubra, sharing drinks and darts and debauchery, why would you think you're immune.

It is just a lazy claim by the outraged freedom fighters in this country.

[Dr Zaius]

And curfews are now in. You can time their decision making with a sundial.

[Off]

If you're outside having a beach party in Maroubra, sharing drinks and darts and debauchery,

Oh stop it not now.

[Off]

First on my agenda is to ride naked tandem with azza on a mini mal.

[Off]

I'm kinda sickened by this hero worship of nurses and all this sickening thankyou crap, it's your job, do it and stop bringing it into your workplace like st georges oncology unit, these **** have enough to worry about.

[Azza]

First on my agenda is to ride naked tandem with azza on a mini mal.

My pop-ups gone way backwards since I moved off the 8 footer softlite onto a 7ft fun board mate.

[FuiFui BradBrad]

11 people test positive after attending an illegal beach party in Maroubra.
But I thought there was no issue with people hanging out on the beach?

Police have no info on party... imagine my surprise

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... d829d58b8b

Are there people who seriously think that COVID does not transmit outdoors?

**** used your brain. The limo driver passed it to a lady at an outdoor cafe to start this whole thing ****.

Obviously there is a lower transmission risk being outside than being indoors.

But its so painfully obvious that it depends on the context. If you're outside having a beach party in Maroubra, sharing drinks and darts and debauchery, why would you think you're immune.

It is just a lazy claim by the outraged freedom fighters in this country.

It was a cheeky dig at Dr Chant not being worried about beach goers, when I was comparing PINs issued in the Eastern suburbs vs Western suburbs. Part of my “West Sydney is copping the hangover from Eastern Sydney’s party” series of rants.

Are they breaking the rules? Aren't you allowed out exercising? Dr Chant said about 2 weeks ago that she was not concerned by people walking on the beach.

[Mickey_Raider]

11 people test positive after attending an illegal beach party in Maroubra.
But I thought there was no issue with people hanging out on the beach?

Police have no info on party... imagine my surprise

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... d829d58b8b

Are there people who seriously think that COVID does not transmit outdoors?

**** used your brain. The limo driver passed it to a lady at an outdoor cafe to start this whole thing ****.

Obviously there is a lower transmission risk being outside than being indoors.

But its so painfully obvious that it depends on the context. If you're outside having a beach party in Maroubra, sharing drinks and darts and debauchery, why would you think you're immune.

It is just a lazy claim by the outraged freedom fighters in this country.

It was a cheeky dig at Dr Chant not being worried about beach goers, when I was comparing PINs issued in the Eastern suburbs vs Western suburbs. Part of my “West Sydney is copping the hangover from Eastern Sydney’s party” series of rants.

Are they breaking the rules? Aren't you allowed out exercising? Dr Chant said about 2 weeks ago that she was not concerned by people walking on the beach.

No I agree with you completely.

Just taking your dig further to the broader cohort who cannot wrap their little cells around the fact sharing cocktails at a beach picnic is not zero risk.

[Dr Zaius]

I think that there is a clear difference between walking on the beach and partying on the beach.

[-PJ-]

The hardest part about this 7 day lockdown is the first 3 weeks.

[Dr Zaius]

Melbourne looking like Sydney did a month ago

[Off]

At some point like in the movie titanic ya just gotta throw your arm over the missus put your head down on the pillow and close your eyes.

[gangrenous]

Melbourne looking like Sydney did a month ago

Yep, they’re looking in deep **** too. Ugh.

[Schifty]

The thing about 21,000 Canberrans told to quarantine is that it means their whole household has to quarantine.

[-TW-]

825 in NSW today..

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Mickey_Raider]

Wow. NSW and VIC in a world of pain.

Lockdown until Christmas sounded like an exaggeration not too long ago. Not so sure any more.

[Dr Zaius]

Wow. NSW and VIC in a world of pain.

Lockdown until Christmas sounded like an exaggeration not too long ago. Not so sure any more.

Lockdown until 70-80% target achieved is a formality now.