Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Brookvale Oval
Saturday 27 August 3:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox Sports live
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Round 24. It didn't go to plan. Or maybe it did. The Raiders trailed 18-4 at half time, but a stunning comeback produced the 28-18 win. The comeback was led by captain Jarrod Croker, who scored a stunning try, sheer pace and acceleration, six minutes into the second half. And then proceeded to set up his winger, Brenko Lee, through some skillful passing - ending the day with three try assists. Brenko, well, he scored four tries all up, and three in the space of 15 minutes in the second half. It turned the game.
More on Round 23: As I saw it
The Canberra Raiders are on the road for the final two matches of the regular season and first up, meet the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. Josh Hodgson (suspension), Edrick Lee (calf) and Paul Vaughan (sternum) return to the Raiders squad. Junior Paulo has been cleared of serious injury (back), but will miss this week. Vaughan starts at prop in his place. With the return of Hodgson, Adam Clydsdale drops back to Mounties. Brenko Lee and Shaun Fensom are 18th and 19th men on an extended bench.
The retiring Manly Sea Eagles captain, Jamie Lyon (hamstring) has not named for a match that would have been his final home game. It had been thought that Dylan Walker (shoulder) would be out for the season, but he has been named at centre. Brayden Wiliame moves to the wing, with Brad Parker dropping out. Apisai Koroisau returns at hooker, with Blake Leary dropping back to the extended bench.
Late changes: Canberra Raiders five eighth Blake Austin broke his hand at training on Wednesday, so Sam Williams comes into the side. Austin may be out for the season. For Manly, Dylan Walker is struggling to be fit for the match, described as a "slight chance" to play by coach Trent Barrett.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
History: Canberra has won 19 of 50 matches against the Manly Sea Eagles. Including matches against the Northern Eagles, doesn't make it look better either. In that case it is 21 wins for Canberra from 56 matches. The Raiders have won just three of the last 10 matches played. Two of those wins have been in the last two years: the victory in Round 13 this year at Canberra Stadium, and the win at Albury in Round 5 last year. No doubt Raiders fans also well remember the loss in Round 23 last year, which would have been a win, but for an illegal try to the Sea Eagles in the final minutes. Canberra has won only nine games from 25 matches at Brookvale Oval, the last being a 24-22 victory in 2010.
2016 Round 13 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2015 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2015 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
This week's "History Happens" first goes back to Round 9 of 1990 and a clash at the WACA in front of over 23,000 people. Sit back and enjoy!
1990 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: The Raiders have now won eight matches in a row, and it's the first time that has happened since 1995, 20 odd years ago. That year, the Raiders won their first nine matches of the season, and then finished the season with eight in a row... faltering at just the wrong time in the finals. The Sea Eagles are on a WWLLL form line. They had narrow losses to the Eels and Bulldogs, but suffered a 38-18 loss in Round 24 to the Melbourne Storm at Brookvale.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.36 favourites in this match; the Sea Eagles are paying $3.15. The Sea Eagles have 8.5 points start.
Our tip: It is third versus 12th on the ladder and the Sea Eagles are now out of contention for the finals. In addition, this season, the Sea Eagles have only won one match from 11 against a top eight team. However, it is the final home game before Manly captain Jamie Lyon retires. There will likely be a big crowd, even though Lyon is not playing, to say farewell. And the Sea Eagles will be doing their all to give him a win.
Attack: The Raiders are No. 1 in attack, scoring at 27 points a match; the Sea Eagles rank outside the top eight, at 19 points per match. The Raiders score an average five tries per match, the Sea Eagles three. It's the same for line breaks. The teams are about on par for running metres (Raiders 1532m, Sea Eagles 1542m per match) and kicking metres (Raiders 401m, Sea Eagles 419m per match).
The Raiders and Sea Eagles both average a little less than 50 per cent possession and both average nine errors a match. The Raiders are completing at 76 per cent, the Sea Eagles at 78 per cent. The Raiders concede an average of seven penalties per match, the Sea Eagles eight.
Defence: The Raiders concede 19 points on average per match, the Sea Eagles 22. The Raiders let in 18 points against the Eels, but have conceded less than the magic 16 points mark during their eight game winning streak, and 13 in the past five matches. The Sea Eagles have conceded over 19 points per match in the last five. The Raiders average 22 tackles per match, the Sea Eagles 28.
The Raiders are again expected to win, but, as Ricky Stuart says, there's no easy team to beat in the NRL. Some of the statistics are not far apart, but Canberra certainly has more strike in attack and a bit better defence. The Sea Eagles have their problems with injuries, with the likes Lyon, Brett Stewart, Steve Matai on the sideline. But then the Raiders also have Blake Austin and Junior Paulo missing through injury. If Canberra win its final two matches of the season, they have a chance at a top two spot - provided the Sharks drop at least one of their matches. The Raiders will need to be more mentally switched on than in the first half of the Eels match. But they should have too much at stake. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Shannon Boyd: "There's no individuals, it's a group game and everyone's got to do it together, not just one person. Stick [Ricky Stuart] has done a really good job down here. He's got all the boys in line, and everyone's playing well for each other and we're all good mates so it's all working for us."
Blake Austin on Canberra's road trips for the final rounds: "We really enjoy each other's company getting away. We'll spend a bit of time by the beach in Manly and then out to Leichhardt. Two pretty traditional grounds in our game, and it should be enjoyable."
Ricky Stuart on Blake Austin's injury: "It was a very simple accident and very unfortunate for Blake. As I said last week we are not a one man team and Sam Williams will come into the team now and we know he’ll do a great job for us. This will challenge us and everybody has to buy in and assist in picking up the slack.”
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joey Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Sia Soliola
14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Luke Bateman 16. Clay Priest 17. Joe Tapine 18. Brenko Lee 19. Shaun Fensom
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Lewis Brown 4. Dylan Walker 5. Brayden Wiliame 6. Matthew Wright 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Api Koroisau 10. Nate Myles 11. Martin Taupau 12. Jamie Buhrer 13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Matt Parcell 15. Josh Starling 16. Frank Winterstein 17. Siosaia Vave 18. Blake Leary
Officials:
Referees: Ben Cummins, Tim Roby
Sideline Officials: Ricky MacFarlane, Adam Reid
Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Bryan Norrie, Jason Robinson
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLManlyRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2016 #FromAllAngles
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