Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
Friday 24 March 8:05pm AEDT 7:05pm local
Lang Park
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502, Nine
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds. Max 30 Min 22
Round 3 2107. A big 46-6 win over the Wests Tigers and the Raiders are suddenly no longer on the bottom of the ladder, but are in the top eight. It was the sort of result that the team and fans needed. Eight tries to one. It was a real fillip for team confidence and we saw the re-emergence of some 2016 attacking form. The Wests Tigers had a good game plan and it was working well in the first half. But once the Raiders scored two quick tries just before half time, the spirit of the Wests Tigers' in defence was broken. From that point on they were shot ducks.
2017 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
More on Round 3: As I saw it
The Raiders head to Brisbane in Round 4 to face the Broncos - and they have named an unchanged team 1-17. The only change in the squad of 21 is the surprise inclusion of Joe Tapine (broken finger). It had been expected that he would not return until Round 6-7, but he must be rated some chance to be fit - otherwise coach Ricky Stuart would not have named him in the squad. It at least gives Stuart the option of making Tapine a late inclusion.
Canberra Raiders junior Tevita Pangai Jnr is the only change for the Broncos top 17, named on the bench. Benji Marshall drops back to the Brisbane reserves list. Half Anthony Milford is another Raiders junior in the Broncos squad.
Jarrod Croker is on a significant potential milestone: with one more try, he will have scored 100 career tries in first grade.
Late changes: For the Raiders, Dunamis Lui and Scott Sorensen are the two players to drop out on match eve. It suggests Joe Tapine is still a chance of a late inclusion... or that the lineup 1-17 is very settled. The Broncos have indicated they are likely to line up 1-17... and have dropped Benji Marshall and Jonus Pearson from their squad of 21.
Matt's Match-ups: Which players and which team win the skins?
Franko's Five: Five things the Canberra Raiders should do to beat the Brisbane Broncos
History: In the nineties, the Raiders and Broncos were major rivals, but no longer. Canberra has won just 19 of 49 matches against Brisbane and drawn one. In the last 10 matches, Canberra has won four - but lost the last three straight. The Raiders have won just four times in 16 matches at Lang Park - in 1988, 1995, 2004 and 2010. Canberra also won just once in six matches at QEII Stadium. It's not a great record in the northern State capital.
2016 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
2015 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
So in this week's "History Happens", we recall one of the Raiders' best - and one of the few - wins at Lang Park - a Round 26 match in 2010 which cemented a finals place for Canberra, and sent the Broncos off to celebrate their Mad Monday. What a night!
2000 Round 17 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Form: The Raiders have a WLLLW record in the last five matches; the Broncos a WLWLL form line. The Broncos started the season with a win over the 2015 premiers at Cronulla, but lost to the Cowboys in a tough golden point match at home. They then suffered a narrow two point loss to the Storm in Melbourne in Round 3.
Betting: The Broncos are clear favourites in this match, paying $1.65; the Raiders $2.25. Canberra has a 3.5 points start.
Our tip: Both teams are on two competition points, the Raiders in eighth and the Broncos in ninth, on points differential. And while both have lost two matches, the Broncos have the more consistent form - losing by two points or less.
It's difficult to discern statistical trends after just three rounds, but there are a few points to highlight. While the Raiders are now top two in attack, and are averaging 26 points and five tries per match - but most of that is down to the big win over the Wests Tigers. Brisbane has looked more solid in defence than Canberra. The Broncos have conceded around 18 points per match, while the Raiders have conceded 23 points per match. Brisbane has also made fewer errors per match (10-12 per match) and are completing at 78 per cent - compared to a 71 per cent completion rate for Canberra. Finally, Brisbane has been making more running metres (1674m-1401m per match) and kicking metres (570m-329m per match) than the Green Machine.
The Raiders will need to cut the silly errors and penalties and lift the completions. If they can, and win the battle up front, it will give the opportunity for the Raiders' backs to unleash.
On the other side of the coin, we can expect that Brisbane will play it tight, minimise errors, complete sets and kick long. They will try to force the Canberra big men to work hard in defence, put them on the back foot and tire them out. The plan will be to grind and capitalise on mistakes.
The Raiders will already be tired because of a five day turnaround - while the Broncos have had eight days to prepare. Coach Ricky Stuart has said the Raiders will likely have only one training session before the game. One thing in Canberra's favour is that the Broncos have had a tough start to the season - and would have expended a lot of energy in their past two games.
But when you add in the advantage of a big home crowd at Lang Park - and the associated flow of penalties - it is going to be a very difficult night for Canberra. The heart says the Raiders, but the head says Broncos by six. Hopefully, the Raiders prove that wrong!
What they're saying:
Blake Austin on Canberra's five day turnaround: "I'd play three games in a week if they asked me to. It wasn't long ago we were kids and playing three and four games on a Saturday backing up for any team you could. For myself it's not a very big issue and we just go out there and play a game of footy."
Jordan Rapana on the Broncos: "I'm hoping that it's going to take off from here [the Wests Tigers victory] and we're going to be better next week. They're a quality team [the Broncos]. If we hand over the ball as much as we did against the Tigers when we're playing teams like the Broncos or Sharks, quality teams, it's definitely going to cost us so we've got to be better in that area."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Nick Cotric 3. Jarrod Croker (C) 4. Joey Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Junior Paulo 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Luke Bateman
14. Adam Clydsdale 15. Sia Soliola 16. Clay Priest 17. Dave Taylor
18. Jordan Turner 22. Joe Tapine
Brisbane Broncos
1. Darius Boyd C 2. Corey Oates 3. James Roberts 4. Tautau Moga 5. Jordan Kahu 6. Anthony Milford 7. Ben Hunt 8. Korbin Sims 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Adam Blair 11. Sam Thaiday 12. Matt Gillett 13. Josh McGuire
14. Alex Glenn 15. Tevita Pangai 16. Herman Ese’ese 17. Jai Arrow
19. George Fai 20. David Mead
Officials:
Referees: Ashley Klein, Adam Gee
Sideline Officials: Brett Suttor, Nick Morel
Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLBroncosRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
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happy days. 
