Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday 29 April 5:30pm, Gates open 3:10pm, NSW Premiership 3:15pm
Stadium Australia
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Sunny. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then turning west to southwesterly in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 mm. Max 23 Min 11
Round 8 2017. A 20-18 loss in golden point. That's two golden point losses this season and a one point loss. In eight matches that's more close losses than you'd like. The Sea Eagles came with a plan to hold the ball, force repeat sets, slow down the play and kick for the touchlines to keep the ball out of the hands of the Raiders' back three. And the plan worked. They forced the Raiders to get in the grind - and while the Raiders may be in the process of learning how to win the grinding matches, they're not fully comfortable doing it at the moment.
2017 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
More on Round 8: As I saw it
The Raiders head to Sydney for the first time in 2017, taking on the Canterbury Bulldogs at Stadium Australia. Clay Priest (shoulder) returns on the bench for the Raiders, with Dunamis Lui dropping back to the reserves list. There's still no sign of Dave Taylor in the Raiders NRL or Mounties squads. For the Bulldogs, Will Hopoate (fractured cheekbone) has been included as a reserve. Former Canberra Raiders junior Matt Frawley is not named in the 17, but it is likely he will again take a bench spot. Brenko Lee is another former Raider lining up for the Bulldogs.
Late changes: Josh Papalii will play in the match after being found guilty on Thursday of a drink driving offence that took place early this year. He has been axed from the Kangaroos squad for the Anzac Test and will meet with the Raiders board on Monday regarding any further penalties. Makahesi Makatoa and Lachlan Croker have been omitted from the Raiders squad of 21.
Des Hasler confirmed on Friday afternoon that Will Hopoate (eye socket fracture) will return at fullback. Francis Tualau and Reimis Smith have dropped out of the Dogs' 21 man squad.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
Franko's Five: Click here
History: The Canberra Raiders have won 28 of 66 matches against the Canterbury Bulldogs, around a 40 per cent win rate. Despite that, Canberra has won five of the last 10 games between the clubs - and they have a good record against the Bulldogs at Stadium Australia, winning five of the nine matches between the clubs at the venue. However, Canberra has not faced Canterbury at Homebush since 2011. In addition, Canberra has won just 11 of 31 matches against the Bulldogs in Sydney.
Canberra won both clashes in 2016 - a 22-8 win in Round 5 at a Belmore Sports Ground and a 32-20 victory in Round 12 at Canberra Raiders. The Raiders showed promise of what was to come last season in both matches. In particular, the match at Belmore showed the Raiders could deal with an intimidating environment and dominate an opposition forward pack with great defence.
2016 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
2016 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs
In this week's "History Happens", let's choose the obvious game... the 1994 Grand Final! That was a win in Sydney!
1990 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: The Raiders have a LWWWL record in the last five matches - and the Bulldogs have exactly the same form line. Canterbury lost to the Wests Tigers at home last weekend in a close match, 18-12 - after the scores were locked at 12-12 with four minutes remaining. In the previous three weeks, they have beaten the Rabbitohs and Knights - but also some tougher opponents in the Broncos.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.48 favourites; the Bulldogs are paying $2.75. Canterbury has six points start.
Stat attack: The Raiders and Bulldogs both have a 4-4 record from the opening eight rounds of the season - with Canberra ahead on the ladder by virtue of their points differential. The Raiders' strength in attack continues, averaging 25 points and 4.4 tries per match. The Bulldogs have averaged just 15 points per match in 2017, and 2.9 tries.
The Raiders average 49 per cent possession - slightly worse than the Bulldogs (51 per cent). Both teams have a completion rate of 75 per cent - and average over 10 errors per match - and neither Ricky Stuart nor Des Hasler are probably happy with that. In terms of discipline, both teams concede around 6.5 penalties per match - and receive more than most (about 7.5 penalties per match).
The Bulldogs make more running metres (1555-1530 metres per match) - but there is not much in it. Canterbury has a more decided advantage in kicking metres (455-384 metres per match). Canberra does, however, make more tackle breaks (31-21 per match), line breaks (3.9-3.4 per match), and produces more try assists (3.3-2.0 per match).
The two teams are close to level pegging in defence - if anything, the Bulldogs have a slight advantage. The Raiders concede an average of 18 points per match (three tries) compared to 17 (a little less than three tries) for the Bulldogs. They both concede around 1360 metres per match. Canberra concedes 3.1 line breaks per match, the Bulldogs 2.6, the Raiders also miss a handful more tackles per match (27-22).
Our tip: Canberra is currently second favourite to win the 2017 premiership - but to be blunt, they are not playing like it. The goal line defence is definitely improving, and the coach and team are confident that they're in the process of learning how to win the tough, close matches. The sort of matches they'll need to win at the end of the season. But they'll need to start winning these close tussles, soon.
In this one, attack is the area where the Raiders have the clearest advantage. I say it repeatedly: if they concentrate, complete their sets, the Raiders should have too much strike for the Bulldogs.
The worry is that teams like the Sharks and Sea Eagles have shown the rest of the competition how to beat Canberra. Get off the line "quickly", be prepared to give penalties away for standing off side - particularly on the edges - slow down the play and kick for the sidelines. The Bulldogs are the sort of team that will be quite prepared to employ similar tactics.
No doubt the Canberra brains trust will have the tactics ready to counteract it. They will need to avoid becoming frustrated. They let the Manly niggle get the better of them last week - and they can't fall for that one again. The pack will need to stand up and be counted - and make metres up the middle of the park before the play makers spread it. Josh Papalii and Junior Paulo are doing a heap of work, but the pack as a whole will need to lift against a big Bulldogs outfit. We know they can do it, and I'm tipping they will. But it will be a very rugged affair. Raiders by four.
What they're saying:
Junior Paulo on the Bulldogs team: "They've got a big forward pack as well and a lot of strike power across the the park, so it will be a job for us middles to hold ourselves accountable for whatever happens because without our go forward the backs aren't able to do their job."
Blake Austin: "I think it's fair to say we're really comfortable with where we're at so far this season, we were heading into [the Manly] game to go four in a row and it went all the way. Manly had to play some really good footy to beat us, so in terms of confidence nothing has changed there and we're really excited to take on the Bulldogs."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Nick Cotric 3. Jarrod Croker c 4. Joey Leilua 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Junior Paulo 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joe Tapine
14. Adam Clydsdale 15. Luke Bateman 16. Clay Priest 17. Sia Soliola
18. Dunamis Lui 19. Scott Sorensen 20. Makahesi Makatoa 21. Lachlan Croker
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Brett Morris 2. Kerrod Holland 3. Josh Morris 4. Brenko Lee 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Moses Mbye 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. James Graham 11. Josh Jackson 12. Greg Eastwood 13. David Klemmer
14. Sam Kasiano 15. Danny Fualalo 16. Adam Elliott 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
19. Francis Tualau 20. Matt Frawley 21. Reimis Smith 23. Will Hopoate
Players in light grey omitted.
Officials:
Referee: Henry Perenara; Assistant Referee: Chris James
Touch judges: Brett Suttor and Kasey Badger
Review Official: Ben Galea; Senior RO: Bernard Sutton
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLBulldogsRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
NSW Premiership teams: Click here
Holden Cup teams: Click here
Follow us on Facebook: The Greenhouse Forum, Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
