Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Sunday 28 May 4:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. Early morning fog patches. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm Max 13
Forecast for game time: Fine, partly cloudy. Temperature at kick off, 11C, dropping to 8C by the end of the match.
Round 11 2017. It was a 22-16 win over the Eels. It was less than polished. It did look slick at times, particularly at the start of the match. But there were some poor choices at times. There were some critical errors. But the most important thing was that it was a win, that it restores confidence. It is clear that Ricky Stuart has a plan and he's a man of his convictions. He wants the team to play a grinding style of football and that's what they did. There were some moments of brilliance in how they ran away to a 10 point lead, how they came back after trailing by six points. But for good stretches of the game, it was a grind.
2017 Round 11 Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels
More on Round 11: As I saw it
The Raiders return home in Round 12 for a clash with the Sydney Roosters. The Raiders are missing only Josh Papalii on State of Origin duty. The Roosters, on the other hand, are missing five players: key playmaker Mitchell Pearce, Boyd Cordner and Blake Ferguson, all selected for the Blues; and Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra, selected for the Maroons.
For the Raiders, Joe Tapine will start in place of Papalii, with Sia Soliola to move to the starting lock position. Luke Bateman (concussion) returns to the top 17 on the bench. Dave Taylor is named on the reserves list, while also having been named in the second row for Mounties.
The changes for the Roosters are, obviously, more significant. Mitchell Aubusson moves to centre and Joseph Manu to wing to cover for Blake Ferguson (Origin). In turn, Ryan Matterson will cover for Aubusson. Sio Siua Taukeiaho will move from lock to second row to cover for Boyd Cordner (Origin), while Zane Tetevano wil start at lock. Connor Watson will partner Luke Keary in the halves, with Mitchell Pearce on Blues duty. Kane Evans start will start in place of Dylan Napa (Origin). On the bench, Isaac Liu replaces Aidan Guerra (Origin), while Lindsay Collins has been named to make his debut. Chris Smith and former Raiders half Mitch Cornish have also been named on the bench.
Jarrod Croker could pass the 1500 career points mark in the match, as he's just four points short. He will be one of the few players to pass the 1500 points, 100 tries milestone if he does it. Terry Lamb and Hazel El Masri are the only players to ever do it before.
Late changes: The Raiders officially dropped Dave Taylor and Brent Naden from their squad of 21 on Saturday afternoon, leaving Scott Sorensen and Lachlan Croker on the reserves list. Both Naden and Croker played for Mounties on Saturday and Dave Taylor is not fit to play (chicken pox). Scott Sorensen will be the Raiders 18th man in first grade.
The Roosters have not officially announced which players will drop out of their squad of 21. However, Nat Butcher and Victor Radley have been named for New South Wales U20s on Wednesday night and Brock Gray played for the Wyong Roos on Saturday. That suggests Eloni Vunakece - who did not play for the Wyong Roos on Saturday - will be 18th man for first grade. Mitch Cornish and Chris Smith also did not play for the Roos, after being named both in firsts and the NSW Premiership - indicating they will be part of the top 17.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
History: The Canberra Raiders have won 26 of 59 matches against the Sydney Roosters - which represents a 44 per cent win rate. Canberra has won four of the last 10 games between the clubs. There was just one meeting in 2016: a 21-20 win in Round 2. The Raiders were without both halves and lost both Shaun Fensom and Lachlan Croker during the match. To top it off, Joey Leilua was sent to the sin bin for striking with 15 minutes remaining. The Raiders trailed by six points, and despite playing with 12 men, Jarrod Croker scored a try and a goal from the sideline to level the match. And then a Hodgson 40/20 kick put the team in the position for Sam Williams to kick the winning field goal. It was an extraordinary victory under considerable adversity.
The Raiders have won 12 of the 18 matches between the clubs at Canberra Stadium - and 17 of the 26 matches at Canberra's home grounds.
In this week's "History Happens", we go back to Round 5 of 1990 at Canberra Stadium - the first of the matches between the teams at the venue. It was a 66-4 win, at the time, the biggest ever win for the Green Machine. It remains the equal second biggest victory of all time - along with the 74-12 win over the Panthers in 2008 - just behind the 68-0 victory over the Eels in 1993. Mal Meninga scored five tries and 38 points in the match, still the most ever by a Raiders player in a single game. I'd love to see another big score posted this Sunday!
1990 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Roosters
Form: The Raiders have a WLLLW record in the past five matches, while the Roosters are on a WWLWW form line. The Roosters were 24-18 winners over Canterbury in their last start, just staving off a late challenge challenge from the Bulldogs.
Betting: Given the impact of Origin, the Raiders are $1.42 favourites, while the Roosters are paying $2.95. The Roosters have 7.5 points start. The odds for the Roosters have lengthened during the week.
Stat attack: It's fourth versus eighth on the ladder - with the Roosters having an 8-3 record so far, while the Raiders are 5-6 in the first 11 rounds.
The Raiders are top four in attack, averaging 23 points (four tries) per match - but the Roosters are not too far behind (21.5 points and 3.7 tries per match). The Roosters average a greater possession share (51-48 per cent of the ball) and higher completion rate (77-74 per cent) than the Raiders. The Raiders are awarded 7.1 and concede just over six penalties per match. In contrast, the Roosters are awarded just 4.5 and concede six penalties in each game. The Roosters also make slightly more errors (11.5-11 per match).
The Roosters are top four for running metres (1467 metres per match), while the Raiders 11th in the league (1376 metres per match). The Raiders still make good metres per run, however (9.4 metres per run for the Raiders, 9.1 for the Roosters). The Roosters also make more kick metres than the Raiders (547-406 metres per match) - and take more line kicks than any team in the competition.
The Roosters just shade the Raiders in line breaks (5-4.7 per match) and offloads (10-9.7 per match). However the Raiders are ahead of the Roosters in tackle breaks (32.1-29.6 per match) and try assists (3.8-3.5 per match). There's not much between the teams in any of that.
The Roosters have better defence. They concede 15.5 points (2.5 tries) per match, compared to 19 points (3.3 tries) for the Raiders. The Roosters concede fewer offloads (8.9-10.1 per match). However, the Raiders concede fewer line breaks (3.2-4.4 per match) and slightly fewer running metres (1390-1402 metres per match). The Raiders also miss fewer tackles (24-28), but the missed to made tackle percentage is line ball.
Our tip: The Roosters have the statistical advantage, but the most important statistic this week is that the Roosters have lost five players to Origin duty and the Raiders, one. That makes the Green Machine the deserved favourites in the match. Canberra's confidence will have been boosted by last Saturday's win over the Eels, but that match showed that the Raiders still have work to do to get back to their best. They cannot afford to take the Tricolours lightly - as the Roosters still have some very good players in their team. But if the Raiders play to their potential, they should be too strong for a weakened Roosters outfit. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Joe Tapine on the impact of Origin on the Roosters: "There's always those young guys who are going to try and step up and make their mark. The boys have got to turn up, every NRL team comes out firing so we'll prepare as best as we can and take that on. They're good players and they will be missed, but I reckon they'll still be strong without them."
Josh Papalii: "Hopefully that [the Eels win] was the start to something special. The loss to Newcastle really hurt us, with them being a really young team and us with a lot of experience. We just need to focus on ourselves. We know where we went wrong against Newcastle and also the Eels game as well."
Canberra Raiders
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Shannon Boyd
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Sia Soliola
14. Adam Clydsdale
15. Luke Bateman
16. Clay Priest
17. Dunamis Lui
18. Dave Taylor
19. Scott Sorensen
20. Brent Naden
21. Lachlan Croker
Sydney Roosters
1. Michael Gordon
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Latrell Mitchell
4. Mitchell Aubusson
5. Joseph Manu
6. Connor Watson
7. Luke Keary
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend (c)
10. Kane Evans
11. Ryan Matterson
12. Siosiua Taukeiaho
13. Zane Tetevano
14. Isaac Liu
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Chris Smith
17. Mitchell Cornish
18. Nat Butcher
19. Victor Radley
20. Eloni Vunakece
21. Brock Gray
* Players in light grey have been ruled out.
Officials:
Referees: Henry Perenara, Dave Munro
Sideline Officials: Russell Turner, Chris Sutton
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Luke Patten
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersRoosters
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
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