Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Saturday June 10 5:30pm
Carrington Park, Bathurst
Gates open: 2:00pm Group 10 A Grade Curtain Raiser: 2.30pm - Bathurst Panthers and Orange Hawks
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two. Cloudy. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h. Chance of any rain: 50 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0-8 mm Min 5 Max 14
Round 13 2017. It was 21-20. Another golden point loss. That is three this season. It was a second golden point loss to the Sea Eagles in a matter of weeks. The Raiders have also lost by a point in the final moments to the Broncos. That's eight competition points. It leaves the Raiders in ninth on the ladder, halfway through the competition, six competition points adrift of the top four. It was courageous to come back in the second half. But the team is not playing to its potential or capability. And the Raiders do have trouble winning close games.
2017 Round 13 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
More on Round 13: As I saw it
The Raiders head to the country town of Bathurst for a Penrith Panthers home game at Carrington Park. Both Shannon Boyd (knee) and Dunamis Lui (ACL) have been ruled out with injury - Lui for the whole season. Sia Soliola has been named at prop in place of Boyd, while Luke Bateman (thumb) returns at starting lock. Mounties forward, Royce Hunt, has been named to make his debut off the bench. Dave Taylor, Kurt Baptiste and Brent Naden are named on the extended bench - but all three are also named for Mounties. Scott Sorensen is the only reserve not named for Mounties, signalling he will again be 18th man.
The Panthers have made no changes to the team that defeated the Bulldogs last weekend.
Late changes: Adam Clydsdale and Brent Naden have been omitted from the Raiders squad of 21, with Kurt Baptiste included in the top 17 on the bench. Dave Taylor and Scott Sorensen remain on the reserves list. It looks like Sorensen will be the 18th man, while Taylor, if he plays, will turn out for Mounties. Sitaleki Akauola and Moses Leota have been omitted by the Panthers from their squad of 21.
Matt's Match-ups: Who wins the skins?
Franko's Five: Five things the Raiders should do to beat the Panthers
History: The Canberra Raiders have won 36 of 71 matches against the Penrith Panthers and drawn one. That's just over a 50 per cent win rate.
Canberra played Penrith three times in 2016, winning two of the three. They lost the clash played at Carrington Park in the corresponding match last year by a point, in controversial circumstances. However, at Canberra Stadium, the Green Machine produced a win in the heat in Round 2 and in Week 2 of the finals.
Canberra has won six of the last 10 matches between the clubs. The Raiders have won just 12 of 31 matches played at the home ground of the Panthers, Penrith Stadium - but Penrith has elected to play Canberra at Bathurst for the second year in a row.
2016 Finals Week 2 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
2016 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
In this week's "History Happens", we go back to Round 1 of 1992. The Raiders had defeated the Panthers in the 1990 Grand Final, but Penrith turned the tables in 1991. The following season started with a Grand Final replay and the Raiders had a very small piece of revenge at Canberra Stadium. They ran out 14-10 winners, with Brad Clyde and Brett Mullins scoring tries for the Green Machine. It was two tries apiece, with Mal Meninga's three goals proving decisive. Will it be the Panthers getting revenge this time for the 2016 finals loss to the Raiders?
1992 Round 1 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Form: The Raiders have a LLWWL record in the past five matches, while the Panthers are on a three game winning streak (LLWWW). In their last start, they decimated the Canterbury Bulldogs, 38-0. They've also accounted for the Knights and Warriors in the past few weeks.
Betting: The Raiders are outsiders in this week's match, paying $2.05 - and have 1.5 points start. The Panthers are paying $1.80.
Stat attack: The Raiders and Panthers were early favourites for the 2017 premiership... but this is a battle between ninth and 10th. The Raiders have won six, the Panthers five, with both teams on 12 competition points.
Attack: The Raiders have scored more points than any other team (296) and are equal first for tries scored (51). However, they are fourth in the league for average points (22.8) and fifth for average tries scored (3.9). The Panthers rank sixth for points (21.7) and eighth for tries scored (3.6).
The Panthers average a 53 per cent share of possession (the Raiders 49 per cent) and have a slightly higher completion rate than the Raiders (74-73 per cent). Penrith receives more penalties than Canberra (7.5-6.9 on average per match) but also concede more (6.6-6.2) - so there's not much advantage for Penrith there. The Panthers make slightly more errors (12-11 per match). What explains the possession share? It's the Panthers' style, which is to keep the ball in play and to pass often.
The Panthers are top four for running metres (1474 per match, 1394 for the Raiders), but the Raiders make slightly more metres per run (9.4-9). Both teams are bottom four in the league for kick metres (408 metres per match for the Raiders, 396 for the Panthers).
The Raiders are second in the league for tackle breaks (33 per match) - but the Panthers (31) are not far behind. The Raiders also produce more try assists (3.5 per match, 2.9 for the Panthers). However the Panthers have the advantage in line breaks (5.6-4.8 per match) and offloads (11.8-9.8 per match).
Defence: The defensive records of both teams are similar - and not great for either team. Canberra concedes 18.9 points (3.3 tries) per match, compared to 19.4 points (3.3 tries) for the Panthers. The Panthers concede fewer running metres than any other team in the competition (1301 metres per match, compared to 1387 metres for the Raiders). The Raiders miss fewer tackles (23 per match, compared to 31 for the Panthers) and have a clearly better missed to made tackle ratio. The Raiders also concede fewer line breaks (3.3 per match, 4.4 for the Panthers). Both teams concede around 10 offloads per match.
Our tip: It's not surprising that the Panthers are favourites in the match. The Panthers are on a winning streak and all the commentators are saying the Panthers are "back". Nevertheless, I don't think we should get too carried away. The teams Penrith has beaten in that streak are all towards the bottom of the ladder.
The Raiders are not performing to their potential and not performing consistently. The Raiders are also suffering some injury trouble, with Boyd and Lui out. But Canberra is no more disadvantaged by injury than the Panthers. They also have a number of players missing, including Peter Wallace (groin) and Bryce Cartwright (knee). Until Canberra puts some better form on the board, I'm going to have to go with the Panthers in this one. Whichever team is the winner, they could produce a lot of points. Let's hope I'm wrong - and that this is the game where the Raiders "click".
What they're saying:
Sia Soliola on Dave Taylor: "He is always a good one to have on board, it's great that we've got a player like Dave with his experience, size and ball playing ability. He's just come in and done everything required of him. He hasn't whinged or moaned ... he's come in and done the work. It would be good for him [to play]."
Jarrod Croker: "They're a quality side as well [Penrith] and they've been a bit similar to us. They're finding their feet, they've got some fantastic players in that side and they're going to be tough ... we need a win going into the bye."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Sia Soliola
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Luke Bateman
21. Kurt Baptiste
15. Royce Hunt
16. Clay Priest
17. Joe Tapine
18. Scott Sorensen
20. Dave Taylor
14. Adam Clydsdale*
19. Brent Naden*
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Josh Mansour
3. Dean Whare
4. Waqa Blake
5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6. Matt Moylan (C)
7. Nathan Cleary
8. James Tamou
9. Mitch Rein
10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Isaah Yeo
13. Trent Merrin
14. Tyrone Peachey
15. Leilani Latu
16. Tim Browne
17. Viliame Kikau
19. Sione Katoa
21. Peta Hiku
18. Sitaleki Akauola*
20. Moses Leota*
*Omitted players
Officials:
Referees: Henry Perenara, Chris James
Sideline Officials: Rohan Best, Tim Roby
Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Bryan Norrie
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLPanthersRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
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