Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday 10 September, 5:40pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Gates open: 12:45pm
NRLW - Gold Coast Titans V Parramatta Eels: 1:05pm
NRLW Brisbane Broncos V St George Illawarra Dragons: 2:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers. Partly cloudy. Very high (90 per cent) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning. Chance of any rain: 90 per cent Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm Min 11 Max 15
The Canberra Raiders have qualified for the finals in eighth place and now head to Melbourne for a clash with the Storm. It is not a venue that should raise any fears for the Green Machine - they have won four games straight at the ground.
Last round: 2022 Round 25. Canberra Raiders 56 - Wests Tigers 10. It was all over at half time. The Raiders led 42-0 at the break, having scored seven tries. The Raiders chose to rest Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead on the day of the game, given it was almost certain they had already secured a finals spot. Jamal Fogarty was then rested during the second half. While the Raiders took the foot off the accelerator, they still ran out comfortable winners over the wooden spooners.
More on Round 25: As I saw it
Team news: Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead return to the Raiders' starting team after being rested on Sunday. That means Matt Frawley drops out of the top 17, while Corey Harawira-Naera returns to the bench. The Raiders have made no other changes to the team.
Halfback Jahrome Hughes (calf) returns for the Storm, with Cooper Johns dropping to the reserves list. Kenny Bromwich (head knock) and Nick Meaney (shoulder) have both been named after suffering injuries against the Eels.
Late changes: Both teams left their starting 17 u changed on Friday afternoon, when they reduced their squads to 19. Albert Hopoate and Matt Frawley remain on the Raiders’ extended bench, while the Storm retained Young Tonumaipea and Jordan Grant as reserves.
History: The Raiders have won only 15 of 51 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a meagre 29 per cent win rate. The Raiders broke a five game losing streak against Melbourne with a memorable 22-18 victory in Bleak City in Round 22 in 2019. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points. It was the Storm's worst ever collapse. Canberra followed up with another stunning, 12-10, victory in Week 1 of the 2019 finals - with a John Bateman try in the final stages delivering a match winning lead. They produced their third straight win against Melbourne in Round 3 of 2020. But the Storm then went on another five game winning streak against Canberra, including the 2020 Preliminary Final. The Raiders ended that streak in Round 18 this year, winning 20-16 in Melbourne.
2022 Round 18 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2022 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2021 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2021 Round 11 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
The Raiders have won seven of the 12 games played between the clubs at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, including the last four.
Form: Raiders: LWWWW
Storm: WWWLL
The Storm is coming off back to back losses, having fallen to both the Roosters (18-14) and the Eels (22-14). But Melbourne also has recent wins over the Broncos (60-12), Panthers (16-0) and Titans (32-14). The Raiders are on a four game winning streak - decisively beating the Tigers (56-10) and Sea Eagles (48-6) and scraping home against the Knights (28-22) and Dragons (24-22). Their most recent loss was a 26-6 defeat at the hands of the Panthers at Canberra Stadium.
Betting: The Storm is a $1.37 favourite, with the Raiders paying $3.10 The Raiders have 8.5 points start in the line betting. The odds for Canberra have shortened slightly late in the week.
Stat attack: This is a clash between eighth (Raiders) and fifth (Storm) on the ladder. The Storm has the best attack in the league and they're not far off the benchmark team, the Panthers, in defence. Melbourne ranks first for tries, line breaks and dummy half runs, third for completions and fourth for tackle breaks.
Canberra's relative strength is their defence - but they've finally broken into the top eight teams in attack, having opened up against the Sea Eagles and Tigers in the past couple of weeks. The Raiders rank second in the NRL for offloads and third for dummy half runs.
The Storm is just a bit better than the Raiders in almost every department, apart from offloads and tackle efficiency. The Storm has shown some signs of wear and tear over recent weeks, as the injury toll has mounted. But they've also had a much tougher draw heading into the finals than the Raiders.
The Storm has conceded more penalties than any team in the competition. That's not surprising as they are prepared to test the patience of the officials in terms of offside play and the wrestle. The Storm's Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Justin Olam and Cameron Munster are three of the top five most penalised players in the NRL. But the Raiders aren't far behind, ranking third for most penalties conceded.
2022 Season record: Raiders 14 and 10 (8th, +63)
Storm 15 and 9 (5th, +247)
Attack: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked eighth on tries scored
Storm 27 points and 5 tries scored per match, first on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked sixth for fewest tries conceded
Storm 17 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked fourth for fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 51 per cent, Storm 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Storm 80 per cent
Running: Raiders 1518 running metres per match
Storm 1555 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 32, Storm 35 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Storm 6 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Storm 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 12, Storm 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 518 kicking metres per match
Storm 499 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Storm 87 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1315 running metres conceded per match
Storm 1289 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 10, Storm 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Storm 7 per match
Key match-ups:
Xavier Savage and Nick Meaney. Xavier Savage has come on in leaps and bounds in his rookie year. He made three appearances last year, but has now notched up 17 in 2022. He's scored six tries and produced seven line breaks, 37 tackle breaks and averaged 142 running metres per game. He's reduced his error count as the season's progressed, while his positioning and passing game are developing quickly. Nick Meaney is filling in at fullback for an injured Ryan Papenhuyzen. They are big boots to fill. Meaney is possibly best known as a winger, but about half of his 87 NRL games have been at fullback. In 22 games this year, he's produced 13 tries, eight try assists, 13 line breaks, 56 tackle breaks and 108 running metres per game. Meaney's numbers are better overall. But is difficult to compare the statistics for these two, as Meaney has only played half of his games this year in the No. 1 jersey.
Jack Wighton and Cameron Munster. Two of the best five eighths in the competition. Jack Wighton has been a little up and down in 2022, but in recent weeks he's been back to his absolute best. He is an incredibly dangerous runner. In 2022, he's scored four tries and produced nine try assists, 12 offloads, 14 line break assists and 14 line drop outs. He's averaged 98 running metres and 284 kicking metres. He hits hard in defence, very hard. Cameron Munster's numbers are even more impressive. Recently he's been roaming, switching to fullback in attack. So he'll be hard to contain. He has 11 tries, 15 try assists, 30 offloads, 15 line break assists and nine line drop outs to his name. He's average 141 running metres and 205 kicking metres per game. His tackle efficiency is almost as good as Wighton's. This will be a great contest, but Munster is in front in this match-up in my view.
Josh Papalii and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Josh Papalii has probably been overtaken by Joe Tapine as the No. 1 prop at the Raiders, but Big Papa is still awesome. He's scored four tries, made 67 tackle breaks, 37 offloads and averaged 124 running metres and 26 tackles per game. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is probably lucky he's not on the sidelines, suspended for this match. Just this year, he's been fournd guilty on five charges for high tackles and dangerous contact, but has only ever paid a fine. So he plays on the edge. He's got three tries, 82 tackle breaks, 34 offloads, and an average 119 running metres and 20 tackles per game so far in 2022. Big Papa takes this match-up for mine.
My tip: The Storm are rightly favourites in this game - and almost all the numbers point to a Storm victory. But the Storm is looking more vulnerable right now than they have for years. They haven't finished outside the top four since 2014. In fact that has only happened once since 2010 - when they were stripped of all their competition points for salary cap cheating. They have only won four of their past 10 games, while the Raiders have won eight of their past 10. Canberra is peaking at the right time. Then add in the Raiders' good recent record in Melbourne. It is going to be a very tough contest. But I'm going to go with the Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Raiders coach Ricky Stuart after the win over the Tigers: "Any hit out without any problems with injury or whatnot is a good hit out. We're in good form, the players are full of belief and confidence and for them to do what they've done over the last three months has been an extraordinary feat. And it's not over yet. We're not just in there to make up the numbers, like a lot of other people think."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Albert Hopoate
20. Matt Frawley
Injury/Suspension
Adrian Trevilyan, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Ryan Sutton, Hand (Season)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Marion Seve
4. Justin Olam
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Harry Grant
10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenny Bromwich
13. Josh King
14. Brandon Smith
15. Tui Kamikamica
16. Trent Loiero
17. Chris Lewis
18. Young Tonumaipea
19. Jordan Grant
Injury/Suspension
Tyran Wishart, Ankle (Finals)
Dean Ieremia, Hamstring (Season)
Ryan Papenhuyzen, Knee (Season)
Reimis Smith, Pectoral (Season)
Christian Welch, Achilles (Season)
George Jennings, Knee (Season)
Tom Eisenhuth, Ankle (Season)
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Drew Oultram, Liam Kennedy
Video referee: Ashley Klein
NRL Teams: Click here
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