Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 23, 2021, 9:38 pm
gangrenous wrote:I haven’t followed the news today. Was the declaration of a disaster linked to funding? Or might they be laying justification groundwork for vaccine prioritisation?
Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.

They want to target the vaccines to those workers, in those services, coming from those communities. They want additional vaccines to do it.
There were additional restrictions announced today on Blacktown and Cumberland, both of which aren’t SW Sydney. Cumberland is W and Blacktown is more like NW Sydney.
They said that they are seeing cases in those areas and so tightening restrictions to get ahead. Main concern is still Bankstown, Liverpool et al
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote:Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.
This doesn’t fit the numbers. Active in the community numbers are too high to imply that spread at home is inflating the numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.
This doesn’t fit the numbers. Active in the community numbers are too high to imply that spread at home is inflating the numbers.
Why? You find a case, and test their family. They are positive and have been active in the community. Active in the community doesn't distinguish between going to work, or ducking out to Woolies or doing some outdoor exercise. It just indicates that they are haven't been directed to isolate.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.
This doesn’t fit the numbers. Active in the community numbers are too high to imply that spread at home is inflating the numbers.
Why? You find a case, and test their family. They are positive and have been active in the community. Active in the community doesn't distinguish between going to work, or ducking out to Woolies or doing some outdoor exercise. It just indicates that they are haven't been directed to isolate.
OK let me rephrase. Yes that can be correct, but if it is then it doesn’t fit with your downplaying of the seriousness. If there’s a 70% chance you have been out and about and you’re not an essential worker. Then the lockdown is doomed.

I don’t really think they’re counting walking round the block as active in the community. If they are then I’d be less concerned about the active in community numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.
This doesn’t fit the numbers. Active in the community numbers are too high to imply that spread at home is inflating the numbers.
Why? You find a case, and test their family. They are positive and have been active in the community. Active in the community doesn't distinguish between going to work, or ducking out to Woolies or doing some outdoor exercise. It just indicates that they are haven't been directed to isolate.
OK let me rephrase. Yes that can be correct, but if it is then it doesn’t fit with your downplaying of the seriousness. If there’s a 70% chance you have been out and about and you’re not an essential worker. Then the lockdown is doomed.

I don’t really think they’re counting walking round the block as active in the community. If they are then I’d be less concerned about the active in community numbers.
I'm not downplaying the numbers. I'm giving some explanation as to why they are high, straight from the mouth of the CMO. They are still infected, which is awful for them, and dangerous for the community.

As for what is considered active in the community, I'm not sure that has been explained to the public. My assumption is that it is anyone that hasn't been directed to isolate, regardless of whether they have been about and about. There is every chance of that being wrong though.
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Coronavirus

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I would wager that is not the definition. Could also be wrong of course.
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:I would wager that is not the definition. Could also be wrong of course.
I'd assume that as a bare minimum, if they have potentially been in contact with anyone in the community, for example just ducking down to the milko for a packet of Winnie Blues, they are counted as active in the community.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 9:42 am
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:Essentially the spread is predominantly in South Western Sydney. It's occurring in essential workers which is why they are active in the community. They are spreading it in workplaces, and taking it home infecting the whole family, hence the numbers.
This doesn’t fit the numbers. Active in the community numbers are too high to imply that spread at home is inflating the numbers.
Why? You find a case, and test their family. They are positive and have been active in the community. Active in the community doesn't distinguish between going to work, or ducking out to Woolies or doing some outdoor exercise. It just indicates that they are haven't been directed to isolate.
OK let me rephrase. Yes that can be correct, but if it is then it doesn’t fit with your downplaying of the seriousness. If there’s a 70% chance you have been out and about and you’re not an essential worker. Then the lockdown is doomed.

I don’t really think they’re counting walking round the block as active in the community. If they are then I’d be less concerned about the active in community numbers.
I'm not downplaying the numbers. I'm giving some explanation as to why they are high, straight from the mouth of the CMO. They are still infected, which is awful for them, and dangerous for the community.

As for what is considered active in the community, I'm not sure that has been explained to the public. My assumption is that it is anyone that hasn't been directed to isolate, regardless of whether they have been about and about. There is every chance of that being wrong though.
I believe that is correct.

It will therefore manifest as a mix of people in the community, whether it be old mate going down to Woolies, old mate picking up a script from the chemist, to old mate conducting essential painting work 200km away from Fairfield.
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Coronavirus

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That’s not quite what Zaius said. He’s also saying it applies to old mate who sat at home and went absolutely nowhere, but hadn’t formally been directed to isolate by NSW health.

I assume the definition would be attending a public venue. I don’t reckon they’ll be counting outdoor activity.
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Re: Coronavirus

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There is a lot of bullet dodging going on up here. Flight attended, delta positive in the community for nearly two weeks, announced yesterday. Went to a restaurant 2 blocks away from where I live. No cases today, so presumably all her family/household contacts are negative.

Queensland have had about half a dozen delta cases wondering around for a week or more in the last month, with next to no onward transmission. Yet old mate goes to Westfield and shuts down Sydney. Old mate goes to the MCG and shuts down Melbourne.

The key to controlling this pandemic is finding out what makes a super spreader and rounding them up, sending them to Superspreader Island.
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Re: Coronavirus

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A Trumpian perspective would say that today’s result is a fantastic achievement, more tests just means more cases after all.

One thing I cannot get my head around is the wilful determination to misrepresent the number of people infectious in the community. Today up to 90 were infectious in the community.

NSW health refuse to headline this figure and instead prefer to headline only those out in the community for full infectious period. For whose benefit they do this I am not sure. Seems like an exercise in delusion, because the proof is in the pudding of subsequent days and their case numbers.

It also doesn’t correspond with what we know about the transmissibility of Delta. I don’t think someone in the community for x days rather than x+3 days (or whatever the period is) means that that person is an insignificant risk.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:A Trumpian perspective would say that today’s result is a fantastic achievement, more tests just means more cases after all.

One thing I cannot get my head around is the wilful determination to misrepresent the number of people infectious in the community. Today up to 90 were infectious in the community.

NSW health refuse to headline this figure and instead prefer to headline only those out in the community for full infectious period. For whose benefit they do this I am not sure. Seems like an exercise in delusion, because the proof is in the pudding of subsequent days and their case numbers.

It also doesn’t correspond with what we know about the transmissibility of Delta. I don’t think someone in the community for x days rather than x+3 days (or whatever the period is) means that that person is an insignificant risk.
I think that you are reading too much in to that. Having watched yesterday and today's press conference, they aren't trying to sugar coat anything. They are concerned and making that abundantly apparent.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Completely agree Mickey. I don’t understand what a reasonable justification could be for it.
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Re: Coronavirus

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These numbers are terrible. You'd have hoped to see a positive effect from tightened restrictions last weekend, clearly not.

It's difficult to see how they turn this around short of a Wuhan style lock in, and a Samoan style door to door vaccination drive.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:25 am
Mickey_Raider wrote:A Trumpian perspective would say that today’s result is a fantastic achievement, more tests just means more cases after all.

One thing I cannot get my head around is the wilful determination to misrepresent the number of people infectious in the community. Today up to 90 were infectious in the community.

NSW health refuse to headline this figure and instead prefer to headline only those out in the community for full infectious period. For whose benefit they do this I am not sure. Seems like an exercise in delusion, because the proof is in the pudding of subsequent days and their case numbers.

It also doesn’t correspond with what we know about the transmissibility of Delta. I don’t think someone in the community for x days rather than x+3 days (or whatever the period is) means that that person is an insignificant risk.
I think that you are reading too much in to that. Having watched yesterday and today's press conference, they aren't trying to sugar coat anything. They are concerned and making that abundantly apparent.
I don’t think I am reading into it too much.

Media outlets are always the first to outline the true figures after they have to do the maths themselves, usually gleaned from parsing a NSW Health Twitter thread 6 or 7 deep.

If they were really highlighting it you would be able to walk away from the pressers after 5 minutes with those facts, rather than having to conduct your own investigations.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:25 am
Mickey_Raider wrote:A Trumpian perspective would say that today’s result is a fantastic achievement, more tests just means more cases after all.

One thing I cannot get my head around is the wilful determination to misrepresent the number of people infectious in the community. Today up to 90 were infectious in the community.

NSW health refuse to headline this figure and instead prefer to headline only those out in the community for full infectious period. For whose benefit they do this I am not sure. Seems like an exercise in delusion, because the proof is in the pudding of subsequent days and their case numbers.

It also doesn’t correspond with what we know about the transmissibility of Delta. I don’t think someone in the community for x days rather than x+3 days (or whatever the period is) means that that person is an insignificant risk.
I think that you are reading too much in to that. Having watched yesterday and today's press conference, they aren't trying to sugar coat anything. They are concerned and making that abundantly apparent.
I don’t think I am reading into it too much.

Media outlets are always the first to outline the true figures after they have to do the maths themselves, usually gleaned from parsing a NSW Health Twitter thread 6 or 7 deep.

If they were really highlighting it you would be able to walk away from the pressers after 5 minutes with those facts, rather than having to conduct your own investigations.
There's a difference between poor or confusing presentation of numbers, and deliberate misrepresentation. Watching the press conference, they aren't trying to misrepresent anything.
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
They do. Image
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Re: Coronavirus

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Honestly, the NSW Health Facebook posts have the clearest data of any state. Try figuring out what is happening in Queensland, it says the number of cases and that's it. It's not a conspiracy.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:42 am
gangrenous wrote:What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
They do. Image
Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:42 am
gangrenous wrote:What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
They do. Image
Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
Conduct your own investigation? By clicking on the NSW Health Facebook page, for the post released as the press conference begins? OK then.
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Dr Zaius wrote:These numbers are terrible. You'd have hoped to see a positive effect from tightened restrictions last weekend, clearly not.

It's difficult to see how they turn this around short of a Wuhan style lock in, and a Samoan style door to door vaccination drive.
The restrictions announced were good. The exceptions that look like they pretty much walked it all back the next day weren’t.

Essential workers needs to be ESSENTIAL workers. If an essential worker role can be filled by someone closer, it needs to be filled by someone closer.

Distance restrictions on everyone to within 5km of your home except for as short as possible list of ESSENTIAL reasons for exemption.

Work with supermarkets to ramp up home delivery of groceries and pharmaceuticals. Actively encourage people to order groceries and medicines online where possible. At the very least actively encourage people to minimise trips to shops - aim for once a week max.

Bring in a curfew.

There needs to be a shift in mindset and while some elements like curfew have limited direct influence. I think the indirect influence on mindset, and ability to better police those who are not staying the course is needed.

Without that it looks like vaccines only and we’re in for the long haul…
Last edited by gangrenous on July 24, 2021, 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:44 am Honestly, the NSW Health Facebook posts have the clearest data of any state. Try figuring out what is happening in Queensland, it says the number of cases and that's it. It's not a conspiracy.
Reckon there’s a correlation between the granularity of data, length and scrutiny of press conferences and so on, and the severity of an outbreak and especially….if there is an actual lockdown in place?
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Dr Zaius wrote:
Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:42 am
gangrenous wrote:What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
They do. Image
Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
Conduct your own investigation? By clicking on the NSW Health Facebook page, for the post released as the press conference begins? OK then.
That’s not what was announced in the presser, which was the whole point!

Edited since the swear filter meant it looked like I was calling Zaius a name instead of expressing frustration.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:44 am Honestly, the NSW Health Facebook posts have the clearest data of any state. Try figuring out what is happening in Queensland, it says the number of cases and that's it. It's not a conspiracy.
Reckon there’s a correlation between the granularity of data, length and scrutiny of press conferences and so on, and the severity of an outbreak and especially….if there is an actual lockdown in place?
Not really no. NSW have always given clear data on their Facebook posts. When numbers were lower, they gave blow by blow descriptions of where each case has come from, how they were linked and where they have been. Clearly that's not possible at the moment. Conversely, outbreak, lock down or not, Queensland solely report cases and whether or not they are community acquired or overseas then links you to a website that doesn't tell much.
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:42 am
gangrenous wrote:What is the value in announcing only complete community numbers then Zaius? Why would they not include partial?
They do. Image
Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
Conduct your own investigation? By clicking on the NSW Health Facebook page, for the post released as the press conference begins? OK then.
That’s not what was announced in the presser, which was the whole point!

Edited since the swear filter meant it looked like I was calling Zaius a name instead of expressing frustration.
The data is easily accessible, so what does it matter? But I take your point. Still, there is no conspiracy to hide the reality of the situation. The situation is dire. They know it and haven't been shy about conveying it.
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Re: Coronavirus

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By comparison, this is how Queensland report their data, their post from yesterday, and the link to a website that tells you absolutely nothing about the individual case. ImageImage
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:53 am
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:42 am They do. Image
Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
Conduct your own investigation? By clicking on the NSW Health Facebook page, for the post released as the press conference begins? OK then.
That’s not what was announced in the presser, which was the whole point!

Edited since the swear filter meant it looked like I was calling Zaius a name instead of expressing frustration.
The data is easily accessible, so what does it matter? But I take your point. Still, there is no conspiracy to hide the reality of the situation. The situation is dire. They know it and haven't been shy about conveying it.
It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a misrepresentation or probably more accurately a minimisation of the true story.

The reason why it matters is because I daresay (from someone in this situation) your average person clocks into the press conference at 11, hears the key figures, and gets on with their locked down lives 5 minutes later.

Walking away from that with “43” in your head is pretty different to “up to 90”.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: July 24, 2021, 11:53 am
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
Mickey_Raider wrote: Yep. As I said. Conduct your own investigations.

Fortunately the ABC usually puts up the correct figures 10-15 mins into the press conference.
Conduct your own investigation? By clicking on the NSW Health Facebook page, for the post released as the press conference begins? OK then.
That’s not what was announced in the presser, which was the whole point!

Edited since the swear filter meant it looked like I was calling Zaius a name instead of expressing frustration.
The data is easily accessible, so what does it matter? But I take your point. Still, there is no conspiracy to hide the reality of the situation. The situation is dire. They know it and haven't been shy about conveying it.
It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a misrepresentation or probably more accurately a minimisation of the true story.

The reason why it matters is because I daresay (from someone in this situation) your average person clocks into the press conference at 11, hears the key figures, and gets on with their locked down lives 5 minutes later.

Walking away from that with “43” in your head is pretty different to “up to 90”.
Well we're going to have to agree to disagree here. I don't think that they are trying to misrepresent anything. They are in no way trying to play down the numbers. Quite the opposite, they are trying to convey the seriousness of the situation so that people follow the health orders.
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Coronavirus

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So the question remains - why don’t they say up to 90?

Forget conspiracies and nonsense. Just, what is the reason?
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Re: Coronavirus

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gangrenous wrote:So the question remains - why don’t they say up to 90?

Forget conspiracies and nonsense. Just, what is the reason?
Incompetance?
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Re: Coronavirus

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On another serious note. There is a massive anti lockdown protest in the Sydney CBD right now.

Plenty of libertarian heroes in amongst the ranks marching on behalf of the rest of us sheep.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mickey_Raider wrote:On another serious note. There is a massive anti lockdown protest in the Sydney CBD right now.

Plenty of libertarian heroes in amongst the ranks marching on behalf of the rest of us sheep.
A whole hundred or so?
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Thousands by the looks of things
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Re: Coronavirus

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Christ, this is why we can't have nice things
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