Coronavirus
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- Mickey_Raider
- Jason Croker
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- Location: North Sydney
Re: Coronavirus
It is interesting and it prompts the question:
Is action taken which prevents disaster, but which is seen in some quarters as overkill; worse than an action perceived to be proportionate but which ends in disaster?
I don’t think it is.
Is action taken which prevents disaster, but which is seen in some quarters as overkill; worse than an action perceived to be proportionate but which ends in disaster?
I don’t think it is.
Up The Milk
Re: Coronavirus
Clearly not, but the key there is "prevents disaster". Some of the "short, sharp lockdowns" hailed a success by those that implemented it, saw no further cases identified and thus didn't prevent disaster, only prevented people from earning a living, going to school, seeing family etc. As Melbourne are finding out,, when a lockdown is needed, it's needed for more than a few days. Nothing short about them. The cynic in me believes that some of the "short sharp lockdowns" have been more about show than health. They haven't prevented disaster. We've seen the old adage "never let a crisis go to waste" play out on repeat from all sides of politics this pandemic.Mickey_Raider wrote:It is interesting and it prompts the question:
Is action taken which prevents disaster, but which is seen in some quarters as overkill; worse than an action perceived to be proportionate but which ends in disaster?
I don’t think it is.
Have SA over reacted? Time will tell. The epidemiologist on The Project tonight is a big fan of go hard go early described SA as going <very> hard <very> early. He felt it's because they have little experience in contact tracing outbreaks. Would Victoria, NSW or Queensland have locked down over this number of cases? I doubt it. That said, perhaps they've got intel that the Greek Restaurant is a superapreader event, and case numbers are about to explode, in which case - good call. Time will tell.
- gangrenous
- Laurie Daley
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Coronavirus
Now who might have predicted exactly this?…Dr Zaius wrote: The game plan is shifting. I think that the current Victorian approach has the best balance. Once they had transmissions at the MCG they new that they had a problem and came down hard.
Re: Coronavirus
Huh?gangrenous wrote:Now who might have predicted exactly this?…Dr Zaius wrote: The game plan is shifting. I think that the current Victorian approach has the best balance. Once they had transmissions at the MCG they new that they had a problem and came down hard.
- gangrenous
- Laurie Daley
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Re: Coronavirus
gangrenous wrote: I think the issue now is that NSW rolling the dice has put other jurisdictions at risk. So that lockdown backup seems like it will not be an acceptable backup any longer. So I suspect we’ll see greater pressure in future for even NSW to go a circuit breaker route.
Re: Coronavirus
NSW has stuffed up big time. Now it’s in the regional NSW, Victoria and South Australia. The NSW Premier and Government have to take responsibility for putting a whole country at risk. I’m not seeing any regrets from them. Between Gladys Berejiklian and Scott Morrison we’ve seen one of the biggest failures in public policy ever seen in this country.
The hubris shown by Gladys Berejiklian… and telling other States how wrong they were etc etc. Regrettable… for the country. How wrong she was.
The hubris shown by Gladys Berejiklian… and telling other States how wrong they were etc etc. Regrettable… for the country. How wrong she was.
Re: Coronavirus
The reaction of the Orange, Blayney and Cabonne shires has been interesting. As far as I can glean from the published reports no one from the Orange area has been diagnosed with Covid so far. A person from South West Sydney with Covid while infectious visited the area. I hope the testing shows that no one from the area is positive. It is a 7 day lockdown from midnight tonight. I think the 'stay home' message has been delivered loud and often, but there are individuals who don't abide by the clear message.
Re: Coronavirus
Red Raider… there’s a case of community transmission in Blayney. And a number of close contact sites in Orange et al.
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... 3cedab0c52
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... 3cedab0c52
Re: Coronavirus
Thanks GE. I heard on the ABC this morning about the case in Blayney. I hope the Go Hard, Go Early shutdown is successful. The testing will be all important in learning if the virus has been contained.greeneyed wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 12:06 am Red Raider… there’s a case of community transmission in Blayney. And a number of close contact sites in Orange et al.
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaki ... 3cedab0c52
- Mickey_Raider
- Jason Croker
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- Location: North Sydney
Re: Coronavirus
112 cases and up to 73 cases infectious in the community today in NSW.
****.
****.
Up The Milk
Re: Coronavirus
Out of 80,000 tests.. that's pretty good considering.
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- Mickey_Raider
- Jason Croker
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- Favourite Player: Big Papa
- Location: North Sydney
Re: Coronavirus
I don't think you can call a result yielding an approximate doubling of the "potentially infectious in the community " result from 24 hours prior a good outcome.
Sounds downright grim to me.
Up The Milk
- FuiFui BradBrad
- Bradley Clyde
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Re: Coronavirus
Not gonna lie, today’s update was a bit of a kick in the guts.
I know it’s a selfish reason, but I was really looking forward to having a bit of a birthday bash in a couple of weeks. Started cancelling bookings now, realising that won’t be happening again this year.
I know it’s a selfish reason, but I was really looking forward to having a bit of a birthday bash in a couple of weeks. Started cancelling bookings now, realising that won’t be happening again this year.
Feel free to call me RickyRicky StickStick if you like. I will also accept Super Fui, King Brad, Kid Dynamite, Chocolate-Thunda... or Brad.
Nickman's love of NSW
Nickman's love of NSW
- NSW has done a superb job - 18/12/2020
- NSW has been world-class with their approach to date, that's a fact. - 04/02/2021
Re: Coronavirus
feeling for you and the other sydneysiders Fui, can't imagine.
Today it feels inevitable the whole state or country is headed back to April 2020, I'm not sure I can do that again I'm just so busy at work I can't dedicate time to home schooling or trying to work from home in a house full
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Today it feels inevitable the whole state or country is headed back to April 2020, I'm not sure I can do that again I'm just so busy at work I can't dedicate time to home schooling or trying to work from home in a house full
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Edrick The Entertainer
Re: Coronavirus
What a **** result. Doesn't feel like we are getting anywhere at the moment.
The last lockdown triggered the collapse of my last relationship, although I don't blame covid for that it probably did me a favour. But the mental health consequences and impacts on people of these lockdowns will be felt for years.
The last lockdown triggered the collapse of my last relationship, although I don't blame covid for that it probably did me a favour. But the mental health consequences and impacts on people of these lockdowns will be felt for years.
- -PJ-
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
Anyone see Gladys on the tv this morning.
Girl needs a cuddle.
Girl needs a cuddle.
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank
#emptythetank
-
- David Furner
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Re: Coronavirus
There will be an inevitable transition period from our current position of locking down to attempt to essentially eliminate the virus (pre vaccination) to dealing with daily figures in the 10s of thousands with minimised hospitalisations/deaths (post vaccination).
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
It's an interesting point. Our transition will be very different from places like Europe where they have 10s of thousands of cases yet are getting back to relative normality. The Open Golf, Tour De France, British GP all had packed crowds. Their fear of the virus is greatly diminished as the majority of the population have had access to vaccines. By contrast we've had relative freedom the past 8-10 months because we've been able to close ourselves off to a degree. Now with around 100 cases per day in our largest city and we're back to full lockdown because we're still in elimination mode.Coastalraider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 2:14 pm There will be an inevitable transition period from our current position of locking down to attempt to essentially eliminate the virus (pre vaccination) to dealing with daily figures in the 10s of thousands with minimised hospitalisations/deaths (post vaccination).
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
At some stage we'll need to shift from one to the other. Expect that to come something in the next few months. In the 50+ age bracket (the highest risk category) we have 60% of the population at least partially vaccinated. With 12 weeks between 1st and 2nd jabs for AZ that figure will become fully vaccinated by end of September. With all the Pfizer vaccines now being distributed (along with shorter time span for full vax) we'll be looking at more than 50% of the total adult population fully vaccinated come Grand Final weekend. Question will then be how authorities respond to these kind of outbreaks when risk to the community has been greatly diminished.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: Coronavirus
Those aren't great numbers, but we're yet to see the results of the tightening of restrictions, so time will tell.
Increased restrictions mean that while those people haven't been in isolation, their activity in the community was hopefully limited to ducking into Woolies, and exercising away from others. They will be out and about less, and less people are out and about, meaning less people to infect for the next generation. Less exposure sites per person will mean that contact tracing can be performed more efficiently, and hopefully they can get ahead and isolate more before infectious. Hopefully come the weekend numbers start to come down.
Testing numbers are ridiculously high. 83k is about 1% of NSWs population or around 2% of Sydney's population in a day. In the last 7 days they've tested about 6% of the NSW population or 12% of Sydney's. That's a fair cross-section and they would have to have confidence that they are identifying most cases and have a good handle on how much disease is out there.
Overall its trending better than the Melbourne outbreak last year. But look at the Melbourne delta curve. Despite them locking down pretty quickly, its about to fly past the Avalon cluster, and will likely cap out at higher numbers than Crossroads. Its remarkably transmissible.
Increased restrictions mean that while those people haven't been in isolation, their activity in the community was hopefully limited to ducking into Woolies, and exercising away from others. They will be out and about less, and less people are out and about, meaning less people to infect for the next generation. Less exposure sites per person will mean that contact tracing can be performed more efficiently, and hopefully they can get ahead and isolate more before infectious. Hopefully come the weekend numbers start to come down.
Testing numbers are ridiculously high. 83k is about 1% of NSWs population or around 2% of Sydney's population in a day. In the last 7 days they've tested about 6% of the NSW population or 12% of Sydney's. That's a fair cross-section and they would have to have confidence that they are identifying most cases and have a good handle on how much disease is out there.
Overall its trending better than the Melbourne outbreak last year. But look at the Melbourne delta curve. Despite them locking down pretty quickly, its about to fly past the Avalon cluster, and will likely cap out at higher numbers than Crossroads. Its remarkably transmissible.
Re: Coronavirus
The israelis are casting doubt on how effective Pfizer is against Delta as well, or at least two shots of Pfizer vs a third.
Re: Coronavirus
Problem will be the total mishmash of a response, although I expect that the three Eastern Seaboard states will have a similar approach, and just get on with life. Will be interesting to see if WA try to hold out as a Covid free island.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 3:03 pmIt's an interesting point. Our transition will be very different from places like Europe where they have 10s of thousands of cases yet are getting back to relative normality. The Open Golf, Tour De France, British GP all had packed crowds. Their fear of the virus is greatly diminished as the majority of the population have had access to vaccines. By contrast we've had relative freedom the past 8-10 months because we've been able to close ourselves off to a degree. Now with around 100 cases per day in our largest city and we're back to full lockdown because we're still in elimination mode.Coastalraider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 2:14 pm There will be an inevitable transition period from our current position of locking down to attempt to essentially eliminate the virus (pre vaccination) to dealing with daily figures in the 10s of thousands with minimised hospitalisations/deaths (post vaccination).
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
At some stage we'll need to shift from one to the other. Expect that to come something in the next few months. In the 50+ age bracket (the highest risk category) we have 60% of the population at least partially vaccinated. With 12 weeks between 1st and 2nd jabs for AZ that figure will become fully vaccinated by end of September. With all the Pfizer vaccines now being distributed (along with shorter time span for full vax) we'll be looking at more than 50% of the total adult population fully vaccinated come Grand Final weekend. Question will then be how authorities respond to these kind of outbreaks when risk to the community has been greatly diminished.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
Total mishmash of responses and messaging has been a big issue to date. None of our governments can claim innocence for that. We had a united front in the early days. Thats descended into the usual political point scoring over the past 6 months. To be expected given they are politicians. You get the feeling a lot of them are getting tired of playing this game, which has ultimately made nobody look good. Might get back to a more coordinated approach (except WA).Dr Zaius wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 3:09 pmProblem will be the total mishmash of a response, although I expect that the three Eastern Seaboard states will have a similar approach, and just get on with life. Will be interesting to see if WA try to hold out as a Covid free island.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 3:03 pmIt's an interesting point. Our transition will be very different from places like Europe where they have 10s of thousands of cases yet are getting back to relative normality. The Open Golf, Tour De France, British GP all had packed crowds. Their fear of the virus is greatly diminished as the majority of the population have had access to vaccines. By contrast we've had relative freedom the past 8-10 months because we've been able to close ourselves off to a degree. Now with around 100 cases per day in our largest city and we're back to full lockdown because we're still in elimination mode.Coastalraider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 2:14 pm There will be an inevitable transition period from our current position of locking down to attempt to essentially eliminate the virus (pre vaccination) to dealing with daily figures in the 10s of thousands with minimised hospitalisations/deaths (post vaccination).
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
At some stage we'll need to shift from one to the other. Expect that to come something in the next few months. In the 50+ age bracket (the highest risk category) we have 60% of the population at least partially vaccinated. With 12 weeks between 1st and 2nd jabs for AZ that figure will become fully vaccinated by end of September. With all the Pfizer vaccines now being distributed (along with shorter time span for full vax) we'll be looking at more than 50% of the total adult population fully vaccinated come Grand Final weekend. Question will then be how authorities respond to these kind of outbreaks when risk to the community has been greatly diminished.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: Coronavirus
Totally agree. In the early days there was the expectation that we were a couple of weeks behind Italy. United front.Northern Raider wrote:Total mishmash of responses and messaging has been a big issue to date. None of our governments can claim innocence for that. We had a united front in the early days. Thats descended into the usual political point scoring over the past 6 months. To be expected given they are politicians. You get the feeling a lot of them are getting tired of playing this game, which has ultimately made nobody look good. Might get back to a more coordinated approach (except WA).Dr Zaius wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 3:09 pmProblem will be the total mishmash of a response, although I expect that the three Eastern Seaboard states will have a similar approach, and just get on with life. Will be interesting to see if WA try to hold out as a Covid free island.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 3:03 pmIt's an interesting point. Our transition will be very different from places like Europe where they have 10s of thousands of cases yet are getting back to relative normality. The Open Golf, Tour De France, British GP all had packed crowds. Their fear of the virus is greatly diminished as the majority of the population have had access to vaccines. By contrast we've had relative freedom the past 8-10 months because we've been able to close ourselves off to a degree. Now with around 100 cases per day in our largest city and we're back to full lockdown because we're still in elimination mode.Coastalraider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 2:14 pm There will be an inevitable transition period from our current position of locking down to attempt to essentially eliminate the virus (pre vaccination) to dealing with daily figures in the 10s of thousands with minimised hospitalisations/deaths (post vaccination).
Im starting to wonder if we are currently looking at the merger from our old stance of elimination to an early transition to the other model. This thing is spreading completely differently to the last strains, and I dont think (correct me if im wrong) that any other country has successfully eliminated a proper Delta strain spread once it has kicked off like this before.
At some stage we'll need to shift from one to the other. Expect that to come something in the next few months. In the 50+ age bracket (the highest risk category) we have 60% of the population at least partially vaccinated. With 12 weeks between 1st and 2nd jabs for AZ that figure will become fully vaccinated by end of September. With all the Pfizer vaccines now being distributed (along with shorter time span for full vax) we'll be looking at more than 50% of the total adult population fully vaccinated come Grand Final weekend. Question will then be how authorities respond to these kind of outbreaks when risk to the community has been greatly diminished.
As soon as we realised we were looking good the political point scoring began. I sure hope they are over it. I was over it during the initial Melbourne lockdown with the cheap shots from the Feds, and Palaszczuk playing with the lives of border town residents to win an election.
I think that everyone has had enough. Just roll out the **** vaccine, and once every one who wants it has had the opportunity to get it, open the border and welcome covid with open arms.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
Just having a look at UK, where I pointed out they're allowing full crowds at sporting events. They are about to top 1 million active cases and getting around 50,000 new cases per day. Of those million cases only 611 are listed as serious/critical. When you see that you can understand why they're not as concerned by the recent spike in active cases. Simply put vaccination is working and as a community they no longer live in fear of COVID.
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Re: Coronavirus
It's going to be interesting to watch. They are tipping to hit 100,000 new cases a day in a month or two.
AZ has done the heavy lifting. The US is the other place to watch. They are largely the mRNA vaccines - Moderna and Pfizer - which likely reduce transmission as well as death. They are seeing cases rise, largely in states with low vaccination rates and are calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases ... 0f749.html
AZ has done the heavy lifting. The US is the other place to watch. They are largely the mRNA vaccines - Moderna and Pfizer - which likely reduce transmission as well as death. They are seeing cases rise, largely in states with low vaccination rates and are calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases ... 0f749.html
Re: Coronavirus
My friend in Chicago said they are basically handing out Pfizer on the street like chips, pleading with people to get vaccinated, they have so much vaccine. Here we are on the other hand like povos.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
If we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
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Re: Coronavirus
I can't register to get vaccinated until late September / early October. To me, that's a terrible result. We may get to a similar position, but we've been way, way too slow.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 5:59 pmIf we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
When they start wider distribution there will plenty available. They have to use up vials once taken out of storage.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:08 pmI can't register to get vaccinated until late September / early October. To me, that's a terrible result. We may get to a similar position, but we've been way, way too slow.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 5:59 pmIf we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: Coronavirus
My point is, to be getting the vaccine in the last quarter of this year potentially is a massive failure of public policy. I'm used to it though, this is the same bunch of clowns that botched the NBN.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:14 pmWhen they start wider distribution there will plenty available. They have to use up vials once taken out of storage.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:08 pmI can't register to get vaccinated until late September / early October. To me, that's a terrible result. We may get to a similar position, but we've been way, way too slow.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 5:59 pmIf we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
Re: Coronavirus
Registration for people aged 30-39 opened up for people in the ACT today and 5000 signed up in the first 24 hours.
Now I get to play the waiting game.
Now I get to play the waiting game.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
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Re: Coronavirus
Noted.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:49 pmMy point is, to be getting the vaccine in the last quarter of this year potentially is a massive failure of public policy. I'm used to it though, this is the same bunch of clowns that botched the NBN.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:14 pmWhen they start wider distribution there will plenty available. They have to use up vials once taken out of storage.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:08 pmI can't register to get vaccinated until late September / early October. To me, that's a terrible result. We may get to a similar position, but we've been way, way too slow.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 5:59 pmIf we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: Coronavirus
I note your notation.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 7:27 pmNoted.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:49 pmMy point is, to be getting the vaccine in the last quarter of this year potentially is a massive failure of public policy. I'm used to it though, this is the same bunch of clowns that botched the NBN.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:14 pmWhen they start wider distribution there will plenty available. They have to use up vials once taken out of storage.Azza wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 6:08 pmI can't register to get vaccinated until late September / early October. To me, that's a terrible result. We may get to a similar position, but we've been way, way too slow.Northern Raider wrote: ↑July 21, 2021, 5:59 pm
If we're currently getting 1 million doses a week as reported then we'll be in similar position.
- Sterlk
- David Furner
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Re: Coronavirus
I got a rather unhelpful technical error message from the site when trying to sign up. It's either a tad broken at the moment, or they just hate me specifically.
Re: Coronavirus
I think that we all know the answer to that.Sterlk wrote:I got a rather unhelpful technical error message from the site when trying to sign up. It's either a tad broken at the moment, or they just hate me specifically.
Watch your back, you obviously know too much