Coronavirus

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

greeneyed wrote: July 28, 2021, 8:40 pm The UK was and still is in a fine mess. They did rely on Astra Zeneca as they had little choice.
I don't think that's true GE. The UKs performance during this pandemic has been awful. But the one thing that thye did get right was their vaccine rollout. I'm not aware of the decision making behind opting to get behind AZ in the UK, but the fact that it was developed at Oxford probably factored in there heavily. Regardless, the people of the UK didn't line up for AZ because they had "little choice". Thye were more than willing, and gave one of the chief scientists a standing ovation when she was introduced at Wimbledon. The reports that I've hear are that the average punter in the UK look on at our hesitancy with AZ as absurd. But then, they''ve had a different pandemic to us.

As for the UK being a fine mess currently. They have no restrictions in place currently, and while Covid is fairly rampant, case numbers have stabilised, probably declining, and the burden on the health care system and death is about 7% of where it was at this point in their last wave, and the majority of those are unvaccinated. Far from being a fine mess, for the first time in the pandemic, the UK is in a better position than us, and its on the back of AZ
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by T_R »

The UK is now offering quarantine free travel for vaccinated residents of the US and EU.

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Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

greeneyed wrote:RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
You're still making it out like people are dropping left right and centre

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 7:54 am
greeneyed wrote:RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
You're still making it out like people are dropping left right and centre
Compare it to the "serious adverse health consequences, and possibly death" from COVID and its a not even a discussion. You only have to look at the mortality rates in the UK from COVID pre and post vaccine distribution to recognise how many lives it's saving. Still won't quell the noise from the anti-vaxers.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

This article talks about how this is essentially a pandemic of superspreaders. I'd said 20% were responsible for 80% of infections. They actually say that 10% are responsible for 80%.

It explains why Brisbane can have 13 incursions in 2 months, with minimal onward transmission, while Sydney and Melbourne had one incursion each that led to lockdown - chance.

No doubt lower population density and the fact that many restaurants/cafes/bars up here have been to Brisbane's advantage.

We've heard of R numbers. But what are k numbers? And how do they explain COVID superspreading?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/ ... /100330124




In this article, one epidemiologist talks about how luck plays a role. But most interesting is the Queensland seems to be firing up the blowtorch for the Feds over hotel quarantine. She wouldn't be wrong. They are still doing a feasibility study into building a facility on ADF land near Brisbane airport. A feasibility study! The country will be vaccinated and the pandemic over by the time it opens. It should have been built 12 months ago.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nation ... 58dow.html
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by papabear »

Dr Zaius wrote: July 29, 2021, 8:34 am This article talks about how this is essentially a pandemic of superspreaders. I'd said 20% were responsible for 80% of infections. They actually say that 10% are responsible for 80%.

It explains why Brisbane can have 13 incursions in 2 months, with minimal onward transmission, while Sydney and Melbourne had one incursion each that led to lockdown - chance.

No doubt lower population density and the fact that many restaurants/cafes/bars up here have been to Brisbane's advantage.

We've heard of R numbers. But what are k numbers? And how do they explain COVID superspreading?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/ ... /100330124




In this article, one epidemiologist talks about how luck plays a role. But most interesting is the Queensland seems to be firing up the blowtorch for the Feds over hotel quarantine. She wouldn't be wrong. They are still doing a feasibility study into building a facility on ADF land near Brisbane airport. A feasibility study! The country will be vaccinated and the pandemic over by the time it opens. It should have been built 12 months ago.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nation ... 58dow.html
The amount of money Gov’s pay to economists/ big 4 accountants to delay and muck around on decisions that s ridiculous….

No one seems to care until you have a pandemic and **** needs to get done
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Northern Raider wrote: July 29, 2021, 8:16 am
-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 7:54 am
greeneyed wrote:RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
You're still making it out like people are dropping left right and centre
Compare it to the "serious adverse health consequences, and possibly death" from COVID and its a not even a discussion. You only have to look at the mortality rates in the UK from COVID pre and post vaccine distribution to recognise how many lives it's saving. Still won't quell the noise from the anti-vaxers.
In the UK, COVID was rampant and out of control. Australia had effectively eliminated it. My point has nothing to do with being anti vaccine. I am pro vaccines. My point is that Australia had the chance to have the population vaccinated safely, without people being forced to risk the side effects of a vaccine that involves death or disability. The incompetence of two governments has now put us in the situation of being sometime back in 2020. A great position completely wasted due to bumbling of government. It’s sad that incompetence has fed the anti vaxers. Rolling out a vaccine that has the side effects of Astra Zeneca does that.

In my view, we should be concerned about the unnecessary death of anyone.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

greeneyed wrote:
Northern Raider wrote: July 29, 2021, 8:16 am
-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 7:54 am
greeneyed wrote:RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
You're still making it out like people are dropping left right and centre
Compare it to the "serious adverse health consequences, and possibly death" from COVID and its a not even a discussion. You only have to look at the mortality rates in the UK from COVID pre and post vaccine distribution to recognise how many lives it's saving. Still won't quell the noise from the anti-vaxers.
In the UK, COVID was rampant and out of control. Australia had effectively eliminated it. My point has nothing to do with being anti vaccine. I am pro vaccines. My point is that Australia had the chance to have the population vaccinated safely, without people being forced to risk the side effects of a vaccine that involves death or disability. The incompetence of two governments has now put us in the situation of being sometime back in 2020. A great position completely wasted due to bumbling of government. It’s sad that incompetence has fed the anti vaxers. Rolling out a vaccine that has the side effects of Astra Zeneca does that.

In my view, we should be concerned about the unnecessary death of anyone.
Including the unnecessary death of people not taking a widely available, proven safe vaccine?

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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 8:53 am
greeneyed wrote:
Northern Raider wrote: July 29, 2021, 8:16 am
-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 7:54 am
greeneyed wrote:RedRaider I do understand all that... and that the risk equation has now changed, particularly for people in greater Sydney right now. Sadly, due to the incompetence of the federal and NSW governments, people are now being forced to take the risk on being vaccinated with Astra Zeneca - and possibly suffer the serious adverse health consequences of doing so, and possibly death. That was avoidable and the federal and NSW governments need to be held to account for that in my view. Unfortunately, younger people are likely to be even more affected by the adverse side effects of Astra Zeneca than older people... even though older people are also dying after taking that vaccine. Very sad state of affairs.
You're still making it out like people are dropping left right and centre
Compare it to the "serious adverse health consequences, and possibly death" from COVID and its a not even a discussion. You only have to look at the mortality rates in the UK from COVID pre and post vaccine distribution to recognise how many lives it's saving. Still won't quell the noise from the anti-vaxers.
In the UK, COVID was rampant and out of control. Australia had effectively eliminated it. My point has nothing to do with being anti vaccine. I am pro vaccines. My point is that Australia had the chance to have the population vaccinated safely, without people being forced to risk the side effects of a vaccine that involves death or disability. The incompetence of two governments has now put us in the situation of being sometime back in 2020. A great position completely wasted due to bumbling of government. It’s sad that incompetence has fed the anti vaxers. Rolling out a vaccine that has the side effects of Astra Zeneca does that.

In my view, we should be concerned about the unnecessary death of anyone.
Including the unnecessary death of people not taking a widely available, proven safe vaccine?

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It’s not safe for everyone. Now we’ve been effectively thrust back in time, sure, people are going to have to risk taking Astra Zeneca to avoid death from COVID. Massive blundering from government has put the country in that situation. It was avoidable.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Again, if it wasn't safe, why hasn't the TGA revoked it's provisional approval for use?

They are obviously satisfied it still falls within the realms of safe use.

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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

-TW- wrote: July 29, 2021, 9:06 am Again, if it wasn't safe, why hasn't the TGA revoked it's provisional approval for use?

They are obviously satisfied it still falls within the realms of safe use.

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No doubt because, in this situation, it produces better public health outcomes. Sadly, some people are "collateral damage". If we had a safe, plentiful supply of vaccines without the side effects of blood clots causing death and disability, I've little doubt what the health advice would be.

The bumbling of government has left us in this situation.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Without defending the fact that more Pfizer should have been purchased originally, at least as a contingency, I think the planning around AZ was sound.

Having the ability to produce on shore, and distribute quickly was valid. But in hindsight, they really needed to pump funding into developing an mRNA facility.

Obviously you couldn't foresee the issues with AZ, but in saying that it's still a viable option to vaccinate the population in the next 3-6 months.

I would have happily had AZ if circumstances didn't mean that I was in a risk category.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mickey_Raider »

This is an absolute mess.

239 cases and up to 158 infectious in the community.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FuiFui BradBrad »

I've been worried about the 5km radius rule. I'm in the Blacktown LGA, and I don't have a supermarket within 5kms of my address.
Surely there's got to be some exception though yeah?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Fuifui Bradbrad wrote: July 29, 2021, 11:26 am I've been worried about the 5km radius rule. I'm in the Blacktown LGA, and I don't have a supermarket within 5kms of my address.
Surely there's got to be some exception though yeah?
Yep, you are allowed to travel to your closest shops if there isn’t one within 5km.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Seems the Central Coast has dodged our first bullet. Yesterday and today were the days out mega testing started getting included in the daily results, and we have no locally acquired cases.

Another positive case travelled up from Sydney, took 2 local busses, spent 20 minutes in a servo, then went home to Sydney - let’s see if there is knock on from that one now.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Fuifui Bradbrad wrote:I've been worried about the 5km radius rule. I'm in the Blacktown LGA, and I don't have a supermarket within 5kms of my address.
Surely there's got to be some exception though yeah?
Isn't it within 10km for shopping?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

NSWs handling of previous outbreaks, their ability to avoid lockdown was outstanding, arguably the best in the world.

You can't live on past glories forever though, and they seem to be tackling this lockdown like they are dealing with the ancestral strain. Decisions to tighten restrictions are made slowly as they use the previous "adjust the settings approach", which works on less transmissible variants, but clearly isn't working here. They have completely botched this, and it's hard to see a road out.

It will be interesting reading in 20 years, or whenever cabinet documents are released to the public. We saw reluctance to introduce some measures with the Northern Beaches outbreak - it took a long time for masks to come in for example, appealing to the public for a week or so before finally mandating them.

I'd be interested to know where this hesitancy is coming from. Is it the medical advice? Dr Chant appears very competant. Is it the premier? Economically it makes no sense to string it out - once a lockdown is called, rip that banaid off and reopen quickly. Is it factions in the cabinet? That would be my bet. I don't know a lot about the NSW Liberal and National parties, but if they have similar nuffies as the federal party, I would be suprised if that wasn't what the issue is.

I'm not sure that the new restrictions are going to make any significant impact. Listening to the press conference it sounds that the main benefit is that it makes it easier to police movement and mask wearing.

The key to controlling it is to stop it spreading in workplaces, and stop extended families from visiting each other.

Just make all the restrictions the same city wide. Apply online for your permit as an authorised worker. Without one you should only be out of the house to get groceries or medical attention. Authorised workers to take daily antigen tests.

As for the extended family visitation. What is wrong with these people. Why don't they hate their extended family like normal people?
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Re: Coronavirus

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So we're all locked up to protect the 90 year olds that 2 off keep dying overnight, why did these old ***** take so long to get vaccinated, they should have been slipping it into their water.
This place is woke.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Off »

I notice to all the Labor strong holds are locked up
This place is woke.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BJ »

Question wrote:I notice to all the Labor strong holds are locked up
Also the anti gay marriage voting electorates.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Gladys: "We have harsher restrictions than any other state has ever had."

Righto Trumpy.
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Mickey_Raider wrote:Gladys: "We have harsher restrictions than any other state has ever had."

Righto Trumpy.
"Nobody knows lockdowns better than me"

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FuiFui BradBrad »

Coastalraider wrote:Seems the Central Coast has dodged our first bullet. Yesterday and today were the days out mega testing started getting included in the daily results, and we have no locally acquired cases.

Another positive case travelled up from Sydney, took 2 local busses, spent 20 minutes in a servo, then went home to Sydney - let’s see if there is knock on from that one now.
Nah today’s update has come down to 5kms. It just dawned on me that it’s “As the Crow flies” so I’m good to go
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

The Daily Telegraph has pulled Alan Jones' column for continued anti-lockdown, anti-vaxx rhetoric.

Not the first time that Jones has been pulled either.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Dr Zaius wrote: July 29, 2021, 1:26 pm The Daily Telegraph has pulled Alan Jones' column for continued anti-lockdown, anti-vaxx rhetoric.

Not the first time that Jones has been pulled either.
Can you imagine the editorial boardrooms at Sky tonight, brows furrowed, desperately attempting to reconcile their obligatory "cancel culture" rants tonight with the fact that the "cancellor" was their boss Murdoch's most cherished masthead?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RedRaider »

Vaccinations in Australia totaled 201,470 yesterday. I think that is the highest daily number so far, but it will have to go higher and needs to concentrate in and around the LGAs locked down and in the Greater Sydney area.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -PJ- »

This is just plain horrible.

To all you people in Greater Sydney etc I’m short on words with the current situation.

Stay home, stay well..
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Every day that passes I’m more convinced we aren’t actually coming out the other end of this with the current aim of zero community cases. NSW will become the national test case for high vaccination rates and wide community spread. State borders will remain shut until other states catch up on vaccination take up, and the premiers will spend months taking pot shots at each other about how nsw led the way in vaccination and transition to living with the virus, while other premiers lock borders to secure votes in a futile attempt to try and keep covid at bay forever.

Sorry, pretty miserable today.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Coastalraider wrote: July 29, 2021, 4:34 pm Every day that passes I’m more convinced we aren’t actually coming out the other end of this with the current aim of zero community cases. NSW will become the national test case for high vaccination rates and wide community spread. State borders will remain shut until other states catch up on vaccination take up, and the premiers will spend months taking pot shots at each other about how nsw led the way in vaccination and transition to living with the virus, while other premiers lock borders to secure votes in a futile attempt to try and keep covid at bay forever.

Sorry, pretty miserable today.
I tell you what I wouldn't want to be on the comms team of the NSW government after 4 months of lockdown trying to lord it over other states for not vaccinating quick enough :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

We were never going to keep the virus out forever. But curse that limo driver.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mickey_Raider »

All the talk about "living with it" is completely academic until we reach the critical threshold of vaccinations (which is still yet to be identified).

No premier is going to let it rip with a pathetic 12% of the population vaxxed.

A lot of the hand wringing and hyperbole about "locking down forever" is misguided. I don't think governments will sit around waiting for every last person to get vaccinated before shunning lockdowns. You would think it would be enough for every person to have had the opportunity to get vaccinated before doing so.

At that point, it is on the individuals, rather than the incompetence of government.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

We're all, in this, together...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Mickey_Raider wrote:All the talk about "living with it" is completely academic until we reach the critical threshold of vaccinations (which is still yet to be identified).

No premier is going to let it rip with a pathetic 12% of the population vaxxed.

A lot of the hand wringing and hyperbole about "locking down forever" is misguided. I don't think governments will sit around waiting for every last person to get vaccinated before shunning lockdowns. You would think it would be enough for every person to have had the opportunity to get vaccinated before doing so.

At that point, it is on the individuals, rather than the incompetence of government.
I think the Grattan institute are doing the target sums at the moment.

It will basically be majority of the population with enough padding in the ICU capacity to not completely overwhelm it

Edit: they've released this today https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/ 80% is their number

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