NFL Thread

[Matt]

Wentz was very very good in a beaten side. Unfortunately for him, the stat sheet has his 1st NFL INT - at least its a quality CB that took it, and TBF, it was chasing the game.

Chargers fall short again... how surprising?!?! Conversely, Raiders win another tight contest.

[Botman]

Very disappointing game
Wentz kept them in the game right the way through, defence didnt show up at all in the first half, and we had over 100 yards of accepted penalties, the lions got some home cookin' from the zebras, particularly on the Matthews fumble which ultimately cost us the game, Kelce clearly touches the ball whilst being out of bounds, that's Eagles football. Zebra's stayed with the call and the rest is history.

The play call for Wentz in the INT wasnt ideal, and the throw was bad. They had enough time to try and get some intermediate gains pressing for a game winning FG, tried to get it all in one play. Rookie mistakes by two guys who hadn't had one yet.

Good loss to have i guess. Reminds them that they cant just win games, they arent talented enough to over come turn overs and penalties.
3-1, still right in the mix for the NFC E.
Things get very interesting now though, next 7 weeks:

@WSH, MIN, @DAL, @NYG, ATL, @SEA, GB
We could easily go 1-6 or 2-5 in that period. I'm not worried, we've got a franchise QB, the rest of the team needs work, but we've got the important part

[Matt]

Yeah that call was bad. Still not sure how they got it wrong TBH. The NFL are usually really good at getting it right.

I didn't think the throw was that bad, nor was it a bad idea. You needed points late, so they took a shot down field. Just not a great idea to throw it into double coverage, esp. if it isn't an AJ Green, Juilo, Dez, Hopkins or the like chasing it.

Its funny, but the NFC East doesn't look at bad as I thought it would be.
All are 0.500+.
3 out of 4 teams have already posted 110 points - meaning top half on offence (Cards and 49ers have scored more points than Rams and Seahawks and are actually below them in the div. ****?!?!).
3 out of 4 team have less than 100 points against - meaning top half on D

Loving Elliot! I still think we should have bolstered the D, but the guy is awesome.
Dak still impressed me. Made some crucial 3rd downs that lead to points today. The late fumble wasn't good, but it happens to QBs, but the game was already won. He doesn't have Wentz ability, but has the composure and reads the game. So your 'Kaep to Wilson' comparison is pretty good.

[Botman]

Yeah i didn't see a lot of the Dallas game but Dak is going a good job from what I've seen
They'd be mad to go back to romo at this point

I think Dak is helped tremendously by their line and running game though. I wish Wentz had that line and a reliable Rb. Elliott is **** money. Good thing we paid Fletcher Cox, we're going to need him in the coming years

NFC looks pretty average IMO
I can't see any of these teams beating NE or PIT when it comes down to it

[Botman]

Lock Of the Week:
Brady is back, he’s angry, the Pats coming off an embarrassing loss and they get a talent poor Browns team. -10.5 is not nearly enough. This could easily be a 40-10 sort of game.
NE @ CLE: NE -10.5 $50.00 @ $2.07

Upset of the Week:
I am not buying into this LA team. They will come back to earth with a sickening thud. Buffalo are playing good football, Rex is circling the wagons. They’ll go in and get a win in LA.
BUF @ LA: BUF H2H

Rollin:
I’ve made some errors here, I’ve lost 2 in a row going against my rules.
1a. Never take a road team (ARI @ BUF – LOSS)
1b. Never take a division game (LA @ ARI – LOSS)
Gotta get back to basics, and I’m going to go with that amazing Vikings D to keep the good times rollin at home and get to 5-0 against the Texans
HOU @ MIN: MIN H2H - $100.00 @ $1.38

In good news, bags got back on track here
Going to stick to this rules for my roles now on

Lock currently 60% against the spread

[gerg]

Was a good in by the Cowboys but the Bengals and Cardinals look like damaged goods this year, after disappointing finishes last year. Still early though.

[Botman]

Not particularly confident of this
Game seems like a gambling stay away but Ol 'Bags doesn't stay away from MNF
$25 on this

[Raidersfan]

Saw my first full game this season yesterday (replay) between GB and NYG.

0ne particular play saw a beautiful long throw from the NYG QB which probably should have been caught with a clear cut run to the end zone for a TD. Next play saw the QB sacked and losing the ball which was retrieved by GB.

End of the game was a bit of a let down with less than 2mins remaining, no TO's left for NYG so the inevitable 3 x kneels from GB and shake hands the clock running down.

Go Packers !!

[Botman]

That was a terribly sloppy game
Expecting today's game to be a struggle too

It's been a slow start for the NFL this year, not a lot of bangers, but the quality usually starts picking up around this time

[Matt]

Ravens vs Redskins was horrible too. Mostly crap, with the odd shock/ bizarre play.

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[Botman]

What just occurred between Dirk Koetter and Riverboat Ron was a clinic on coaching malfeasance

Christ almighty

[Matt]

Ooooooooooooooo-K.
Well that was another weird game.

So is Aguayo a good or bad kicker? I can't decide

[Botman]

Hahah, you can't decide?!?!?

He's 4/8 on FG's, has two missed extra points

I mean it doesn't get worse than that. If he wasn't a 2nd round pick they'd have cut him weeks ago


Which is not to say he won't be good some day. Kickers get cut all the time, latch on to another team and stay hot for 2-3 years. That's the nature of it
He's a very talented kicker but right now you absolutely can not trust him. And that's bad

[Matt]

Thats it though. He was money in college. Now cant hit the broad side of a barn. Thats why its confusing

[Thombre]

God damn the raidwrs were terrible. Had the chargers punter not put money on them to lose then I reakon we woulda lost that. Secondary non existant (thank god rivers was so predictable, he was like an 8 yr old on madden throwing deep to one guy every play), running game gone (murrey injured) couldnt stop anything, crabtree dropping everything (then finally catching 2 td passes) amari cooper just stinking.... ugh

[Botman]

MONEYBAGS!
Bags got back on track last week, the Roll, upset and Lock all delivered for about $70 profit. We’re still down a little bit over the year but we’ll keep grinding toward a profit. Lock currently going at a staggeringly good 60% against the spread! Get around me ****.

Lock Of the Week:
It hurts me to do this, it really does but I don’t see any reason why Dallas should be getting 4 points going into GB. I think Dallas can win the game straight up. They are playing great football and the Packers have been VERY unimpressive. And you’re giving me more than a FG start? I’ll take that! This is a legit toss up game, and the bookies are giving you a full score start. I dont see the pack winning by more than 3.
DAL @ GB: DAL +4 - $50.00 @ $1.96 to win $98.00

Upset of the Week:
I’ve got an angle on this. KC coach Andy Reid is a staggeringly good 15-2 H2H and 12-5 against the spread coming off the bye in his career. Fifteen and two! Twelve and five! That’s munny! And they are narrow underdogs. I’m all about that. I regret it every year when I don’t bet the Andy Reid post bye week game. Not this year.
KC @ OAK: KC H2H - $20.00 @ $2.03 to win $40.60

Lulz of the Week:
Miami make me sick to the stomach. **** Ryan Tannehill and **** the Dolphins. They come in against a Steelers team blowing the **** doors off everyone except Wentz. They have no corners, subpar safety play, aren’t great rushing the passer and the offence is anaemic. Put bluntly, they are a bad football team and they should feel bad.
PIT @ MIA: PIT 14+ - $20.00 @ $2.66 to win $53.20

Multi of the Week:
Have not hit a multi this year, it’s been ugly stuff. So im scaling my betting down to $10 and trying to stay a little safer. Let’s roll with the following H2H multi
DEN/BUF/NE/ARI/PIT H2H - $10.00 @ $4.16 to win $41.60

Rollin:
Got off the Cardinals schneid by backing that delightful Vikings D to get me back on track. Once again, what we are looking for here is home teams who are not playing a divisional rival. I’m desperate to take the Steelers on this but I’d be playing with fire if im too heavily invested in them, plus they are an away team so do not qualify for the roll. Meanwhile the Niners go all the way across the country to play the resurgent Bills.
SF @ BUF: BUF H2H - $138.00 @ $1.30 to win $179.40

[DJ89]

Nice one Pig.

It takes a brave man to back against Rodgers at Lambeau I must say. Think this may be a week were Dak throws his first pick. Packers defence is ranked #1 if I am not mistaken so he'll be feeling the heat. This isnt the Bengals or Niners they are up against now.

[Professor]

Pigman, can you add in your weekly segment "Prof's punt", that being your unders / overs prediction for the Friday game/s. Will save me asking you every week.

Cheers.

[Botman]

Will do Prof

[Botman]

Prof’s Punt:
We’ve got a bit of a banger on Friday week – DEN @ SD
The Chargers have a terrible defence, and Trevor Semian? Seimen? Seman? Yeah that's it. Seman.
Well he's back on deck for the Broncos, which should improve its run game and pass game. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos D is **** studly but Big Dick Rivers doesn’t give a ****. He can pick apart any team.
The line is 45.5 and that’s a pretty good number. No obvious play here. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Broncos put up 23 and hold the chargers under 10, but im going to bet on Big Dick Rivers to put up at least 20, and if they do that, the Broncos will have to keep their foot on the gas.

OVER 45.5 – BRONCOS -3.0

[Professor]

Prof’s Punt:
We’ve got a bit of a banger on Friday week – DEN @ SD
The Chargers have a terrible defence, and Trevor Semian? Seimen? Seman? Yeah that's it. Seman.
Well he's back on deck for the Broncos, which should improve its run game and pass game. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos D is **** studly but Big Dick Rivers doesn’t give a ****. He can pick apart any team.
The line is 45.5 and that’s a pretty good number. No obvious play here. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Broncos put up 23 and hold the chargers under 10, but im going to bet on Big Dick Rivers to put up at least 20, and if they do that, the Broncos will have to keep their foot on the gas.

OVER 45.5 – BRONCOS -3.0

Subscribed! Thanks!!

[Matt]

Isnt Seiman the leader monkey in planet of the apes?

[Matt]

I cant get a read on the Bronx this yr.

Chargers, well, if its a shootout, Rivers will be in it to his eyeballs, but otherwise, I dobt know how so much talent can be so inconsistent.

I like thier new TE in Hunter though, he looks good.

[Botman]

Chargers almost **** blew that game too! Christ almighty

[Matt]

NFL is really hard to tip at this stage. Weird **** keeps happening

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[Botman]

Rivers got me my 20
But I didn't count of Trevor Seman all over my stupid face

[Matt]

Yeah... not sure what it is, but I dont like that guy

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[PrimetimeRaider]

I saw a great meme today where Dak Prescott was Willie Beaman and Tony Romo was Cap Rooney

[Botman]

Haha it's going to be super interesting to see how Dallas handle this
Unfortunately for them, romo's contract makes it nearly impossible for them to move on from him, and he's going to be on the Dallas books for another 2 years at least, then they've got Frederick and Zach Martin to pay in between then which really puts you in cap hell

Basically they've positioned themselves where they can't really take advantage of having a cheap potential franchise QB

And a potential qb controversy, where the locker room is behind Dak, or maybe split, mixed with a coaching staff and ownership who maybe split too... that's an interesting situation and unless they get everyone on board pulling in the same direction, it could derail the cowboys season

[Matt]

Piggy will be happy, Big D rolls out of Lambo with a comfortable 'W'.

Prescott broke the longest passing streak for a rookie into the NFL prior to an INT.
Prescott finally gives up his 1st INT... though he had 2 bites at that today. Both locations were a terrible place to give it up, but at least the game was done when it happened.
Elliott continues to be a better runner than half the league, with another 150+ today.

Im just happy our D caused 4 turnovers (3 fumbles and an INT) and a turn over of downs.
Held Rogers to only 1 TD pass - including the short field from Daks INT (he did throw from nearly 300, though).
Even Lacy was pretty quite with only 65, and 2 thirds of these were in 3 of his 17 carries (2 over 10, and 1 of 25).

[Matt]

PS.
**** happened in Phins vs Steelers?!?!? How did the Steelers lose???

Who tipped Panthers to lose their div??? WOW!
Who tipped Cards to not make playoffs???

Are the Falcons going to keep going? Or does their slump start soon (as per 2015)?

[Botman]

A good day for bagz
Cleaned up.

The early lines for week 7 are **** tasty

Bucs/Vikings/Falcons/Bills all at nice lines
And the NE line should come out tomorrow, I'll be heavily invested in that if it's under 10

[Matt]

Just caught the Chief highlights.
Speaking of catches, did you see Poe scored a TD from a screen pass??? LOL

[Botman]

UBET i did.
That was a **** awesome play call, what the **** are LB's and DB's going to do to stop a 350lb monster a yard out from the goal line?
Andy Reid off the bye is absolutely free money

[Botman]

MONEYBAGS Week 7!
Really good week for Bags, hit the lock, hit the upset, hit the roll and also hit a tasty 4 leg multi paying $12.90. Unfortunately it was a rogue multi for my punters club though, so my valuable readers missed out on that good oil 
I love this week 6 slate, I really do, seeing A LOT of value. So let’s get into it. I know it's early but i'll explain below

Lock Of the Week:
When I looked at the lines this morning, this was the one that really threw me. And it threw me enough that it demanded I get on now and not wait for the line to move. And it hurts again, but the Vikings, coming off a bye, going into Philly who showed last week they can’t protect Carson Wentz, only getting 2.5. I mean I don’t think Philly is a bad team and I fully expect this to be a competitive game for a long time. But this Vikings D is scary good and the Eagles do not have the jimmy’s and joe’s to get a win here. I still think the Eagles are a good team but this Vikings team is on another level right now.
MIN @ PHI: MIN -2.5… $50.00 @ $1.86

Upset of the Week:
The Jags stumbled home last week, and frankly should have lost to a terrible Bears team. The Oakland Raiders aint no Bears. They can play and the Jags have got to Jags. A little bit stunned the Raiders aren’t decent sized favourites here. I think they’ll win and win fairly well.
OAK @ JAC: OAK H2H… $20.00 @ $2.02

Lulz of the Week:
Ok, go with me here, this is absolutely wild. But I couldn’t be less impressed with what the Bengals are doing right now, and the Browns are at least a little plucky. This is an old school AFC North game, and as we all know, the AFC North play exclusively 16-13 games. Im taking the Cleveland Browns +10 in this one, and banking on them to keep it a little close.
CLE @ CIN: CLE +10.0… $10.00 @ 1.83

Multi of the Week:
Feeling really good about this one, I struggle to see where it goes wrong but I’m excited to find out!
MIN/BUF/TB/ATL/NE H2H… $20.00 @ $8.62

Rollin:
Ok so im going against my rules this week, the winning formula here is home teams who aren’t playing a division rival. But Ben Roethlisberger had surgery on his knee and is out, so it’s Landry Jones and a shaky defence going against Tom Brady and the NE Patriots two tight end monster and the money line is $1.26. I cannot pass that up, other options were Atlanta but Big Dick Rivers worries me, and im not wild about a Brick Osiweller revenge game against Denver. I think given the money lines, NE is the play. If this goes belly up, I promise you this is the last road time I’m ever rollin’ with.
NE @ PIT: NE H2H… $179.40 @ $1.26


Prof’s Friday Punt:
CHI going into GB, GB are coming off an appalling performance. This GB offence is broken and the Bears seem to be in the game every week late. Historically this has been the game where Rodgers drops a god damn **** anvil on the Bears but I’m just not seeing it. This is an absolute stay away gambling wise, who would know what to make of either of these teams. But I committed to giving the Prof my thoughts, so here we are. I don’t think im going to bet on this game (read: Im definitely betting on this game because I have a problem), but if I had to take a punt, I lean Bears +9.0 / Under 47.0