The run home
Moderator: GH Moderators
-
- David Shillington
- Posts: 32
- Joined: March 30, 2016, 6:31 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
The run home
After another great performance its fair to say its time to start dreaming. Experts always talk about premiership windows and I think (I have all year) that ours is well and truly open. We now have three years for mine (16, 17,18) to take our chance.
We now know that we must win 4 of our last 5 games to be guaranteed a top four berth. The Dogs and Cowboys must have a loser (a draw still works in our favour).
Our run
Sharks A
Storm H
Parra H
Manly A
Tigers A
I think we will absolutely win three but need to jag one of our next two to put destiny in our own hands.
Dogs
Knights A
Sea Eagles H
Broncos A
Cows H
Souths H
I think this is our best chance. Sea eagles, Broncos and Cows are all capable so two of them would make life much easier.
Cows
Tigers A
Roosters A
Warriors H
Bulldogs A
Titans H
If Thurston finally busts his hammy then there are a lot of games they could drop but if he plays they likely win them all.
I can't wait. Lets hope Sharks win a tough game tomorrow to avoid the bounce back then we may pick them off after a five day turn around. I think we can beat Storm if we play Raiders footy and the others just have to be put away like good teams do.
We now know that we must win 4 of our last 5 games to be guaranteed a top four berth. The Dogs and Cowboys must have a loser (a draw still works in our favour).
Our run
Sharks A
Storm H
Parra H
Manly A
Tigers A
I think we will absolutely win three but need to jag one of our next two to put destiny in our own hands.
Dogs
Knights A
Sea Eagles H
Broncos A
Cows H
Souths H
I think this is our best chance. Sea eagles, Broncos and Cows are all capable so two of them would make life much easier.
Cows
Tigers A
Roosters A
Warriors H
Bulldogs A
Titans H
If Thurston finally busts his hammy then there are a lot of games they could drop but if he plays they likely win them all.
I can't wait. Lets hope Sharks win a tough game tomorrow to avoid the bounce back then we may pick them off after a five day turn around. I think we can beat Storm if we play Raiders footy and the others just have to be put away like good teams do.
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
Our draw is pretty tough with Manly and the Tigers hitting form and away. 3 out of 5 would be realistic and may get us top 4. I could see the Dogs losing 3.
5th and a home semi may be as good a result in some ways.
5th and a home semi may be as good a result in some ways.
Last edited by edwahu on July 31, 2016, 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32522
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
Fair assessment. Round 25 could be decisive with Cowboys playing Bulldogs. Means one of them gets the points and the other misses out.
A lot will depend on how long Thurston is out. Cowboys could conceivably lose every game he misses.
A lot will depend on how long Thurston is out. Cowboys could conceivably lose every game he misses.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
-
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 12444
- Joined: April 1, 2008, 5:19 pm
- Favourite Player: Dane Tilse
- Location: Sydney
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
i worked it out we need 3 out of 5 wins for top 4
i also worked out it will be a raiders storm grand final
i also worked out it will be a raiders storm grand final
Vaccinated
-
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 12444
- Joined: April 1, 2008, 5:19 pm
- Favourite Player: Dane Tilse
- Location: Sydney
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
edwahu wrote:Our draw is pretty tough with Manly and the Tigers hitting form and away. 3 out of 5 would be realistic and may get us top 4. I could see the Dogs losing 3.
5th and a home semi may be as good a result in some ways.
otherwise its storm away......
Vaccinated
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
History shows you need a minimum of 34 points to make the 4 .. for us that means 35 .. which means we need 3 wins from the next five games. Ain't going to easy. Still not the end of it if we finish 5th.
Last edited by Raidersfan on July 31, 2016, 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't post facts
-
- David Shillington
- Posts: 32
- Joined: March 30, 2016, 6:31 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
5th would be ok but we would be away after 1 week rather then playing for a home preliminary final or week 2 at home.
-
- John Ferguson
- Posts: 2316
- Joined: November 1, 2012, 3:54 am
- Favourite Player: Rubenrunlikeatrainandhitlikeatruckwiki!
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
That's a fairly long range weather forecast mateIlanraiders wrote:We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
I don't post facts
-
- David Shillington
- Posts: 32
- Joined: March 30, 2016, 6:31 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4
Raidersfan wrote:History shows you need a minimum of 34 points to make the 4 .. for us that means 35 .. which means we need 3 wins from the next five games. Ain't going to easy. Still not the end of it if we finish 5th.
Yeah i had a look at the history books and i think 35 is the mark ( 3 wins ) but both teams are capable. History also suggests 1 top 4 team goes out in 2 games . I think that could be cows
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home
The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
I don't post facts
Re: The run home
Raidersfan wrote:That's a fairly long range weather forecast mateIlanraiders wrote:We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32522
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The run home
Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor.Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: The run home
Yeah me too.Northern Raider wrote:Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor.Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32522
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The run home
SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: The run home
Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
Re: The run home
Correct. We could finish top four and never get a home final.Schifty wrote:Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home
Well I don't agree, so there !CJ42 wrote:Yeah me too.Northern Raider wrote:Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor.Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
I don't post facts
-
- David Shillington
- Posts: 32
- Joined: March 30, 2016, 6:31 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
Re: The run home
How do you know its at the sfsSchifty wrote:Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
-
- David Shillington
- Posts: 32
- Joined: March 30, 2016, 6:31 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
Re: The run home
Melbourne has the same capacity and played there last year. That cant be rightgreeneyed wrote:Correct. We could finish top four and never get a home final.Schifty wrote:Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
Re: The run home
I believe week 3 finals are "Home Region"bigkarl35 wrote:How do you know its at the sfsSchifty wrote:Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
So we have to play at SFS and Cowboys would play at Sun.corp.
Unless they've changed things..
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home
^^^
So what you're actually saying Schifty is that you don't really know .. you're guessing .. you haven't googled it
So what you're actually saying Schifty is that you don't really know .. you're guessing .. you haven't googled it
I don't post facts
-
- Ken Nagas
- Posts: 136
- Joined: December 14, 2006, 8:12 pm
- Location: Good ol Charny
Re: The run home
How is our " Hone region" in Sydney?
- Notaroboticfish
- Jason Croker
- Posts: 4125
- Joined: July 13, 2015, 5:50 pm
- Favourite Player: Royce Hunt
- Location: Middle Earth
Re: The run home
We'd play at SFS or ANZ, however the Cowboys would get to play in Townsville.Schifty wrote:I believe week 3 finals are "Home Region"bigkarl35 wrote:How do you know its at the sfsSchifty wrote:Yep.Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.
So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
So we have to play at SFS and Cowboys would play at Sun.corp.
Unless they've changed things..
- DarkRaider
- Glenn Lazarus
- Posts: 356
- Joined: May 26, 2013, 9:09 pm
Re: The run home
If we finish top 4 the worst case scenario is a week 2 elimination final in Canberra against a bottom half of the 8 team. I'd gladly give up the Canberra final to play a "home" prelim in Sydney though. Ensures that we wouldn't have to face a daunting elimination road trip to Melbourne or Townsville.
- Notaroboticfish
- Jason Croker
- Posts: 4125
- Joined: July 13, 2015, 5:50 pm
- Favourite Player: Royce Hunt
- Location: Middle Earth
Re: The run home
If we finish top 4 and play and elimination final in Melbourne or Townsville, that means that we will have also got our home semi final.DarkRaider wrote:If we finish top 4 the worst case scenario is a week 2 elimination final in Canberra against a bottom half of the 8 team. I'd gladly give up the Canberra final to play a "home" prelim in Sydney though. Ensures that we wouldn't have to face a daunting elimination road trip to Melbourne or Townsville.
Re: The run home
Finishing within the top 4 is so, so, so crucial. It can't be understated.
Win in week 1 and we're obviously through to a Prelim in Sydney (which we'll get huge numbers to) with a week off.
Lose and we get a Semi in Canberra against either the Dogs, Broncos, Titans, Warriors (also include Panthers and Tigers as maybes), which we will pack out. We can beat anyone of them and will be very confident in doing so.
Get into a Prelim and anything can happen. As a fan, all I want is to finally get that whiff of a GF.... just once.
Win in week 1 and we're obviously through to a Prelim in Sydney (which we'll get huge numbers to) with a week off.
Lose and we get a Semi in Canberra against either the Dogs, Broncos, Titans, Warriors (also include Panthers and Tigers as maybes), which we will pack out. We can beat anyone of them and will be very confident in doing so.
Get into a Prelim and anything can happen. As a fan, all I want is to finally get that whiff of a GF.... just once.
- Zip Zip
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5150
- Joined: January 11, 2005, 7:41 pm
- Favourite Player: Mal Meninga
- Location: The Club!
Re: The run home
It's true that a 'home' preliminary final would be in Sydney, but as the only team to not have made one in the NRL era, I wouldn't care where it was.
I just want us to make the GF, just once in my adult life.
I just want us to make the GF, just once in my adult life.
"Look sorry if that came across wrong, I was just referring to the jokes we were making about all the desperate guys who chase you. Hope to catch up some time, but if not best of luck with everything."
- BlameItOnTheBooger
- Glenn Lazarus
- Posts: 323
- Joined: July 2, 2008, 6:38 am
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
- Location: Sydney
Re: The run home
Not being negative here, just realistic. I'm very happy that we are in the top 8, and think we are the 5th best team in the comp this year. And I think we're a top 4 team next year.
That said - we are almost no chance of finishing top 4. We'll almost certainly finish 5 or 6 and that means a home semi first up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That said - we are almost no chance of finishing top 4. We'll almost certainly finish 5 or 6 and that means a home semi first up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
- Brett Mullins
- Posts: 1511
- Joined: March 10, 2009, 5:07 pm
- Favourite Player: Josh Hodgson
- Location: Bay 52, Canberra Stadium
Re: The run home
The worst case scenario is that one of the Cowboys and Bulldogs win 5 and the other wins 4. That would have one of them on 38 points and the other on 36, meaning we'd need 37 to get 4th. That's 4 wins to guarantee a top 4 spot. One win against the big 2 and then the last three against Parramatta, Manly and Wests.
Canberra Raiders
Member No. 1130
Breeding Raiders members since 2010
Member No. 1130
Breeding Raiders members since 2010
- RTW
- David Furner
- Posts: 3762
- Joined: July 29, 2008, 7:05 pm
- Favourite Player: Laurie Daley
- Location: Brisbane
Re: The run home
What has not been mentioned is that Manly and Wests may very well need to beat us to make the 8.
I think Manly have turned a corner and are every chance of sneaking into 8th spot, the advantage is that we have tough games leading into the finals.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think Manly have turned a corner and are every chance of sneaking into 8th spot, the advantage is that we have tough games leading into the finals.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Re: The run home
So you have the Bulldogs or Broncos in front of us?BlameItOnTheBooger wrote:Not being negative here, just realistic. I'm very happy that we are in the top 8, and think we are the 5th best team in the comp this year. And I think we're a top 4 team next year.
That said - we are almost no chance of finishing top 4. We'll almost certainly finish 5 or 6 and that means a home semi first up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Re: The run home
I agree with the Mathis above. 4 wins guarantees top 4 but we could also get there with 3. For the confidence of fans it would be great to knock off the Sharks or storm but the other wins aren't easy.
Manly and tigers will probably be scrapping for the 8 and can both throw the ball around and be very dangerous. Eels will have nothing to lose which is always dangerous.
Massive game on Saturday. Would be awesome to end the Sharks run assuming they beat the Titans tonight.
Manly and tigers will probably be scrapping for the 8 and can both throw the ball around and be very dangerous. Eels will have nothing to lose which is always dangerous.
Massive game on Saturday. Would be awesome to end the Sharks run assuming they beat the Titans tonight.
Re: The run home
Manly would be at brookvale and tigers leichhardt?
Either way two of the worst officiated locations against boths sides playing for a spot in the 8.
Meanwhile the dogs still have matches against souths and knights... and tbh brisbane has fallen into a well of **** at the moment.
If only we didn't drop soo many easy easy easy wins. Anyway it doesnt really matter, if we finish fourth or fifth we are most likely playing the dogs in week two it is just a matter of where the game is.
Either way two of the worst officiated locations against boths sides playing for a spot in the 8.
Meanwhile the dogs still have matches against souths and knights... and tbh brisbane has fallen into a well of **** at the moment.
If only we didn't drop soo many easy easy easy wins. Anyway it doesnt really matter, if we finish fourth or fifth we are most likely playing the dogs in week two it is just a matter of where the game is.
- Raidersfan
- Ruben Wiki
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: March 16, 2013, 4:39 pm
- Favourite Player: George Clooney
Re: The run home
This comment from a News article
"Actually i was not impressed with the raiders, if they where a serious threat to the top three they would have scored another 30 points"
"Actually i was not impressed with the raiders, if they where a serious threat to the top three they would have scored another 30 points"
I don't post facts