The run home

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bigkarl35
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The run home

Post by bigkarl35 »

After another great performance its fair to say its time to start dreaming. Experts always talk about premiership windows and I think (I have all year) that ours is well and truly open. We now have three years for mine (16, 17,18) to take our chance.

We now know that we must win 4 of our last 5 games to be guaranteed a top four berth. The Dogs and Cowboys must have a loser (a draw still works in our favour).

Our run

Sharks A
Storm H
Parra H
Manly A
Tigers A

I think we will absolutely win three but need to jag one of our next two to put destiny in our own hands.

Dogs

Knights A
Sea Eagles H
Broncos A
Cows H
Souths H

I think this is our best chance. Sea eagles, Broncos and Cows are all capable so two of them would make life much easier.

Cows

Tigers A
Roosters A
Warriors H
Bulldogs A
Titans H

If Thurston finally busts his hammy then there are a lot of games they could drop but if he plays they likely win them all.

I can't wait. Lets hope Sharks win a tough game tomorrow to avoid the bounce back then we may pick them off after a five day turn around. I think we can beat Storm if we play Raiders footy and the others just have to be put away like good teams do.
edwahu

Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by edwahu »

Our draw is pretty tough with Manly and the Tigers hitting form and away. 3 out of 5 would be realistic and may get us top 4. I could see the Dogs losing 3.

5th and a home semi may be as good a result in some ways.
Last edited by edwahu on July 31, 2016, 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by Northern Raider »

Fair assessment. Round 25 could be decisive with Cowboys playing Bulldogs. Means one of them gets the points and the other misses out.

A lot will depend on how long Thurston is out. Cowboys could conceivably lose every game he misses.
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by cat »

i worked it out we need 3 out of 5 wins for top 4

i also worked out it will be a raiders storm grand final :)
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by cat »

edwahu wrote:Our draw is pretty tough with Manly and the Tigers hitting form and away. 3 out of 5 would be realistic and may get us top 4. I could see the Dogs losing 3.

5th and a home semi may be as good a result in some ways.

otherwise its storm away......
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by Raidersfan »

History shows you need a minimum of 34 points to make the 4 .. for us that means 35 .. which means we need 3 wins from the next five games. Ain't going to easy. Still not the end of it if we finish 5th.
Last edited by Raidersfan on July 31, 2016, 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bigkarl35
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by bigkarl35 »

5th would be ok but we would be away after 1 week rather then playing for a home preliminary final or week 2 at home.
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by Ilanraiders »

We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by Raidersfan »

Ilanraiders wrote:We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
That's a fairly long range weather forecast mate
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bigkarl35
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Re: The run home. We need 4 of 5 for top 4

Post by bigkarl35 »

Raidersfan wrote:History shows you need a minimum of 34 points to make the 4 .. for us that means 35 .. which means we need 3 wins from the next five games. Ain't going to easy. Still not the end of it if we finish 5th.

Yeah i had a look at the history books and i think 35 is the mark ( 3 wins ) but both teams are capable. History also suggests 1 top 4 team goes out in 2 games . I think that could be cows
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Re: The run home

Post by Raidersfan »

The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
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CJ42
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Re: The run home

Post by CJ42 »

Raidersfan wrote:
Ilanraiders wrote:We got this!! Happy days..........
Sharks face a 5 day turn around and we have the storms at home I really do believe we can win these two games but only if we stay injury free.
Raiders all the way!!!
That's a fairly long range weather forecast mate
:lol:


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Re: The run home

Post by Northern Raider »

Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor. :)
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Re: The run home

Post by CJ42 »

Northern Raider wrote:
Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor. :)
Yeah me too.


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Re: The run home

Post by Northern Raider »

SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
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Re: The run home

Post by Schifty »

Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
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greeneyed
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Re: The run home

Post by greeneyed »

Schifty wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
Correct. We could finish top four and never get a home final.
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Re: The run home

Post by Raidersfan »

CJ42 wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:
Raidersfan wrote:The advantage we have is that we don't have to worry about the score .. F/A means nothing .. we just have to win
Ironically our F/A is pretty good. I'd much rather be on 30 points right now and the F/A was a factor. :)
Yeah me too.
Well I don't agree, so there !
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bigkarl35
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Re: The run home

Post by bigkarl35 »

Schifty wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
How do you know its at the sfs
bigkarl35
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Re: The run home

Post by bigkarl35 »

greeneyed wrote:
Schifty wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
Correct. We could finish top four and never get a home final.
Melbourne has the same capacity and played there last year. That cant be right
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Re: The run home

Post by Schifty »

bigkarl35 wrote:
Schifty wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
How do you know its at the sfs
I believe week 3 finals are "Home Region"

So we have to play at SFS and Cowboys would play at Sun.corp.

Unless they've changed things..
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Re: The run home

Post by Raidersfan »

^^^
So what you're actually saying Schifty is that you don't really know .. you're guessing .. you haven't googled it
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Re: The run home

Post by bazzamcgrath »

How is our " Hone region" in Sydney?
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Re: The run home

Post by Notaroboticfish »

Schifty wrote:
bigkarl35 wrote:
Schifty wrote:
Northern Raider wrote:SO whats the deal with home finals this year? If we finish top 4 but lose in week 1 do we get a home semi against a winning team from the knock out finals?
Yep.

But if we finish 3rd and win week one I believe we get a week 3 Home final at the SFS.

So in theory could be playing Melbourne there.
How do you know its at the sfs
I believe week 3 finals are "Home Region"

So we have to play at SFS and Cowboys would play at Sun.corp.

Unless they've changed things..
We'd play at SFS or ANZ, however the Cowboys would get to play in Townsville.
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Re: The run home

Post by DarkRaider »

If we finish top 4 the worst case scenario is a week 2 elimination final in Canberra against a bottom half of the 8 team. I'd gladly give up the Canberra final to play a "home" prelim in Sydney though. Ensures that we wouldn't have to face a daunting elimination road trip to Melbourne or Townsville.
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Re: The run home

Post by Notaroboticfish »

DarkRaider wrote:If we finish top 4 the worst case scenario is a week 2 elimination final in Canberra against a bottom half of the 8 team. I'd gladly give up the Canberra final to play a "home" prelim in Sydney though. Ensures that we wouldn't have to face a daunting elimination road trip to Melbourne or Townsville.
If we finish top 4 and play and elimination final in Melbourne or Townsville, that means that we will have also got our home semi final.
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Re: The run home

Post by afgtnk »

Finishing within the top 4 is so, so, so crucial. It can't be understated.

Win in week 1 and we're obviously through to a Prelim in Sydney (which we'll get huge numbers to) with a week off.

Lose and we get a Semi in Canberra against either the Dogs, Broncos, Titans, Warriors (also include Panthers and Tigers as maybes), which we will pack out. We can beat anyone of them and will be very confident in doing so.

Get into a Prelim and anything can happen. As a fan, all I want is to finally get that whiff of a GF.... just once.
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Re: The run home

Post by Zip Zip »

It's true that a 'home' preliminary final would be in Sydney, but as the only team to not have made one in the NRL era, I wouldn't care where it was.

I just want us to make the GF, just once in my adult life.
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Re: The run home

Post by BlameItOnTheBooger »

Not being negative here, just realistic. I'm very happy that we are in the top 8, and think we are the 5th best team in the comp this year. And I think we're a top 4 team next year.

That said - we are almost no chance of finishing top 4. We'll almost certainly finish 5 or 6 and that means a home semi first up.


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Re: The run home

Post by AJL »

The worst case scenario is that one of the Cowboys and Bulldogs win 5 and the other wins 4. That would have one of them on 38 points and the other on 36, meaning we'd need 37 to get 4th. That's 4 wins to guarantee a top 4 spot. One win against the big 2 and then the last three against Parramatta, Manly and Wests.
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Re: The run home

Post by RTW »

What has not been mentioned is that Manly and Wests may very well need to beat us to make the 8.
I think Manly have turned a corner and are every chance of sneaking into 8th spot, the advantage is that we have tough games leading into the finals.


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Re: The run home

Post by CJ42 »

BlameItOnTheBooger wrote:Not being negative here, just realistic. I'm very happy that we are in the top 8, and think we are the 5th best team in the comp this year. And I think we're a top 4 team next year.

That said - we are almost no chance of finishing top 4. We'll almost certainly finish 5 or 6 and that means a home semi first up.


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So you have the Bulldogs or Broncos in front of us?


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Re: The run home

Post by pickles »

I agree with the Mathis above. 4 wins guarantees top 4 but we could also get there with 3. For the confidence of fans it would be great to knock off the Sharks or storm but the other wins aren't easy.

Manly and tigers will probably be scrapping for the 8 and can both throw the ball around and be very dangerous. Eels will have nothing to lose which is always dangerous.

Massive game on Saturday. Would be awesome to end the Sharks run assuming they beat the Titans tonight.
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Re: The run home

Post by papabear »

Manly would be at brookvale and tigers leichhardt?

Either way two of the worst officiated locations against boths sides playing for a spot in the 8.

Meanwhile the dogs still have matches against souths and knights... and tbh brisbane has fallen into a well of **** at the moment.

If only we didn't drop soo many easy easy easy wins. Anyway it doesnt really matter, if we finish fourth or fifth we are most likely playing the dogs in week two it is just a matter of where the game is.
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Re: The run home

Post by Raidersfan »

This comment from a News article
"Actually i was not impressed with the raiders, if they where a serious threat to the top three they would have scored another 30 points"
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