Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday 2 September 7:30pm
Melbourne Park
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two. Becoming windy. Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h becoming northerly 30 to 45 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 60 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0-2 mm Min 10 Max 17
Round 25 2017. A 46-28 win over the Newcastle Knights. Canberra did what they had to do... get the two competition points. Ultimately, it would not prove to be enough. Other results in Round 25 meant that the Raiders' season is effectively over.
It was a good performance, with the props building the platform early. But it would have been a more satisfying one had the Raiders not conceded two tries to the Knights in the final five minutes. If the match had stopped at the 75th minute mark, it would have been a 30 point victory. But the game of rugby league lasts 80 minutes. Clinical teams keep the pressure on until the 80th minute. Clinical teams don't concede five tries in a match. It underlined just why Canberra did not make the top eight in 2017.
2017 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
More on Round 25: As I saw it
In the final round of the regular season, the Canberra Raiders travel to Melbourne to meet the ladder leading Storm. Sia Soliola returns to the team at lock, after being suspended for five weeks for a late, high tackle on Billy Slater in the last match-up between the clubs. The Melbourne crowd will no doubt give Soliola a "warm welcome". As a result, Elliott Whitehead moves back to the second row, with Joe Tapine to the bench. Clay Priest drops to the reserves list. Blake Austin will play his 100th NRL match in the game, while Sia Soliola plays his 150th. There are no team changes for the Melbourne Storm.
Late changes: On Friday night, the Canberra Raiders omitted Jeff Lima and Royce Hunt from their squad to take on the Melbourne Storm. Clay Priest and Michael Oldfield remain on the reserves list. The Melbourne Storm have omitted Dale Finucane and Tim Glasby.
Matt's Match-ups: Which players win the skins?
Franko's Five: Coming soon
History: Canberra has won just 11 of 39 matches against the Melbourne Storm; it is Canberra's worst winning percentage against any current NRL team. Between 2003 and 2009, Canberra suffered a 14 game losing streak against the men in purple, but things have improved more recently. In this decade, Canberra has won five of the 12 contests.
In 2016, the Raiders produced a magnificent 22-8 victory in Round 23. It was one of Canberra's best performances in many, many years. And in the 2016 Preliminary Final at Melbourne Park, the Raiders lost by just two points. But just six weeks ago, we witnessed a disappointing 20-14 loss - in what was billed a "must win" clash. The Raiders looked the better team for 30 minutes of the first half. Then in the second, with Cameron Smith and Billy Slater off the field, Canberra could not take advantage - and simple errors cost them the match.
There have only been six games played at Melbourne Park, with the Raiders winning three. Prior to that, however, Melbourne was certainly not a happy hunting ground. Canberra won just one match from 12 games at the Storm's previous home ground, Olympic Park.
2017 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2016 Preliminary Final Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
2016 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
In this week's "History Happens" we go back to Round 10 of 2011, when the Raiders produced a huge upset and broke an 11 drought in Melbourne. Let's hope for a similar result this Saturday!
2011 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
Form: The Raiders have a WWWLW record in their past five matches, while the Storm is on a six game winning streak. In their most recent clash, the Storm gave the South Sydney Rabbitohs an absolute thrashing at Melbourne Park, 64-6.
Betting: The Storm is firm favourite in this match, paying $1.30, the Raiders $3.65. The Raiders have 10 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have lengthened over the week.
Stat attack: It's a match up between first and 10th on the competition ladder. The Raiders have an 11-12 record, while the Storm is 19 and four. Canberra has a only a 5-6 record away, while the Storm is 8-3 at home.
Attack: The Raiders rank well in attack - third in the NRL, with 24 points and 4.1 tries per match - but the Storm is No. 1 (26.1 points and 4.7 tries per match).
The Storm has a higher completion rate than the Raiders (77 per cent, 75 per cent for the Raiders); the Raiders average nearly 11 errors per match, the Storm 10.3. Only the Cowboys receive more penalties than the Raiders (7.3 per match); the Storm rank third (seven per match). However, no team concedes more penalties than the Storm (7.3 per match, compared with 6.5 for the Raiders). That says a lot about how the Storm play. They're prepared to "play on the edge" of the rules - in the ruck and standing off side. Both the Raiders and the Storm average a 49 per cent possession share.
The Storm average more running metres than the Raiders (1423 metres per match, 1372 for the Raiders) - but both average around 9.3 metres per run. The Storm rank third for kicking metres in the NRL (492 metres per match, 405 metres for the Raiders). That reflects Melbourne's strong tactical kicking game. The Storm is first in the NRL for line breaks (6.5 per match, 5.1 for the Raiders). Only the Storm out ranks the Raiders for try assists (3.9-3.6 per match), while Canberra outranks the Storm in tackle breaks (33.7-29.4 per match) and offloads (9.8-9.3 per match).
Defence: The Storm has the best defence in the league. Melbourne concedes only 14.3 points (2.4 tries per match), while Canberra concedes 20.2 (3.4 tries) per match. The Storm concedes fewer running metres and line breaks than any team in the NRL. The Storm give up just 1318 running metres per match, compared with 1411 for the Raiders. The Storm let through just 3.3 line breaks per match - but the Raiders are not too far away on 3.9. The Raiders concede 10 offloads per match, the Storm 9.4. Both teams concede around 25 missed tackles per match - but Canberra actually has a better tackle efficiency rate.
Our tip: The Melbourne Storm will be presented with the minor premiership on Saturday night. They are number one on the ladder, and rank first in both attack and defence. While Canberra's attack is not too far off the Storm, the Raiders' attack has gone backwards this year - after ranking first in 2016. But the real difference between the two teams this weekend is in defence. Defence was the Raiders' relative weakness in 2016 - and they've fallen down the rankings on that score too (from seventh to 10th).
The Storm look like absolute certainties for the 2017 premiership, with daylight second. They are in dominant form. It will be Cooper Cronk's final home game - and Cameron Smith will equal Darren Lockyer's record for most matches played in the NRL. The Storm always goes well on these sorts of occasions. Canberra now has nothing to play for but pride. I fear for the scoreline, after Melbourne put the cleaners through the Rabbitohs last weekend. I hope the Raiders put in a good performance, because rebuilding for 2018 must start now. But I'm tipping the Storm will win this one, by plenty.
What they're saying:
Shannon Boyd on the return of Sia Soliola: "He's a big boy Sia. He'll be ready to go out and get into them after what happened last time we played them, so look out. He'll be massive for us against Melbourne. He's a good leader and he always shows the boys the way and leads out front."
Jack Wighton: "We really let ourselves down in tight games so it's something we're going to have to fix next year if we're going to be contenders. They're on fire down there in Melbourne so it's going to be a big job if we're going to do it [this week].
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Shannon Boyd
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Sia Soliola
14. Kurt Baptiste
15. Joe Tapine
16. Dave Taylor
17. Luke Bateman
19. Clay Priest
21. Michael Oldfield
Melbourne Storm
1. Billy Slater
2. Suliasi Vunivalu
3. Will Chambers
4. Curtis Scott
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Cameron Munster
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith ©
10. Jordan McLean
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Tohu Harris
14. Kenny Bromwich
16. Nelson Asofa Solomona
17. Slade Griffin
19. Joe Stimson
21. Nate Myles
18. Robbie Rochow
20. Young Tonumaipea
Officials:
Referees: Grant Atkins, Dave Munro
Sideline Officials: Chris McMillan, Jason Walsh
Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Luke Patten
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLStormRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
NSW Premiership teams: Click here
Holden Cup teams: Click here
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