Raiders Scouting Thread

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ALX22
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by ALX22 »

Interesting thread.

What position do you see Corey Horsburgh playing if an NRL debut occurs in the next 2 years? Lock or Prop?
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

ALX22 wrote: April 23, 2018, 9:13 pm Interesting thread.

What position do you see Corey Horsburgh playing if an NRL debut occurs in the next 2 years? Lock or Prop?
Thanks.

He played lock. I suspect thats where his future lies. Though prop and lock are similar these days. Guler is the other option.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by greeneyed »

I do like the look of Horsburgh. Just some other thoughts after the weekend, watching Mounties at the Central Coast and North Sydney. And even though Mounties lost at North Sydney, I enjoyed going there for the first time ever. Not been there before... ever... Reptar... had lunch at The Greens... very nice place considering the age of the bowls club nearby.

Guler, top prospect.

O'Hagan... he's got a lot of promise at half, if he can be brought on properly.

I'm not sure Paul Roache is going to make it beyond Under 20s. Lachlan Cooper did some good things at five eighth on Sunday, will also have to lift though.

Stefano Hala... he is big and will need more fitness probably. Lots of potential. Huge amount of potential.

Big drop back for Kalani Going this week to the Woden Valley Rams... not sure what's going on there.

Seb Kris again missing from Mounties Jersey Flegg this week... must be injury. Would be nice to know...

Murchie and Knight are best first grade fringe... Garvey... not sure what he's done, to be overlooked constantly, but he is actually worthy of a shot too. Murchie the best long term first grade prospect.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Matt wrote: April 23, 2018, 7:49 pm
RCG wont be cheap. If Paulo is worth 700K, u would have to think RCG is at least that, but probably north of that.

King at 20 would be lower end. 250-350K?

Terepo possibly a little more 300-400K.

As for our guys, Boyd must be 500-600K. Lui similar to Terepo 300-400. Knight would be min wage, 150-200K.
Terepo on $300k-$400k??? :shock:

He's been a fringe 1st grader at an underperforming club for many years now. Would be a lot closer to the NRL minimum $100k than what you are suggesting. Decent depth signing in the Dunamis Lui category but not on the money you're suggesting. Raiders are in cap trouble because we are paying too many players inflated contracts. We don't want to add another.

I agree Boyd is a must keep. He can be the foundation of our prop rotation. I don't mind our current prop depth with guys like Knight and Gubb plus Guler coming through. We only need 1 establish 1st grade prop to replace Paulo. RCG might be the right guy to target especially if we lose Paps as well. With 2 of our highest paid forwards leaving we could comfortably accommodate RCG.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

Northern Raider wrote: April 24, 2018, 9:12 am
Matt wrote: April 23, 2018, 7:49 pm
RCG wont be cheap. If Paulo is worth 700K, u would have to think RCG is at least that, but probably north of that.

King at 20 would be lower end. 250-350K?

Terepo possibly a little more 300-400K.

As for our guys, Boyd must be 500-600K. Lui similar to Terepo 300-400. Knight would be min wage, 150-200K.
Terepo on $300k-$400k??? :shock:

He's been a fringe 1st grader at an underperforming club for many years now. Would be a lot closer to the NRL minimum $100k than what you are suggesting. Decent depth signing in the Dunamis Lui category but not on the money you're suggesting. Raiders are in cap trouble because we are paying too many players inflated contracts. We don't want to add another.

I agree Boyd is a must keep. He can be the foundation of our prop rotation. I don't mind our current prop depth with guys like Knight and Gubb plus Guler coming through. We only need 1 establish 1st grade prop to replace Paulo. RCG might be the right guy to target especially if we lose Paps as well. With 2 of our highest paid forwards leaving we could comfortably accommodate RCG.
He has 85 NRL games since 2013. That's around 20 games a yr (remembering we are only 7 games into yr 5). That's not fringe. Also, 9.6mill divided by 30 is 320K. Therefore, 300K probably isn't that bad.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

So Terepo is in his 6th season of NRL and he’s played 85 games. Somebody in and out of 1st grade like that qualifies as a fringe player. If you want to pay these guys at or above average wage you will have a pretty ordinary squad.

Simple math dictates you need plenty of guys on or near minimum to fill out you squad if you want experienced top line players. For every guy in the squad on $500k you need somebody on minimum. For every player on $700k you need 2 on minimum. Guys like Terepo are the squad fillers who get the lower money. It’s still way ahead of what they would earn in NSW Cup or a regular non football job. We had to let Baptiste go because the club couldn’t keep his $300k contract under the cap. That’s simply too much money for a backup. No way Terepo justifies that type of coin.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by edwahu »

Terepo missed nearly a year with a pec injury as well.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

edwahu wrote: April 24, 2018, 10:39 am Terepo missed nearly a year with a pec injury as well.
He’s still never locked down a permanent 1st grade spot.

I rate him and still think he’s worth signing but would be paying the $300k-$400k Matt was suggesting. No way the Eels or any other team are going to offer that money so why should we?
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

Northern Raider wrote: April 24, 2018, 10:50 am
edwahu wrote: April 24, 2018, 10:39 am Terepo missed nearly a year with a pec injury as well.
He’s still never locked down a permanent 1st grade spot.

I rate him and still think he’s worth signing but would be paying the $300k-$400k Matt was suggesting. No way the Eels or any other team are going to offer that money so why should we?
I think your maths isnt much chop here mate. 26 rounds a yr, 24 games (its changed this yr obviously), he is avging 20 a yr. Thats not fringe. Thats top 17 with injuries/ suspensions.

As for $ value. I'm making it up on the fly. I have no clue as to what players are on. But working backwards from Jrs 700K, Id say half that seems fair for a guy who will likely play game 100 this yr. If you get him on less, then your laughing.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

According to Rugby League Projects:

Terepo:
2013 = 17 games
2014 = 21 games
2015 = 13 games
2016 = 23 games
2017 = 7 games (pec injury)
2018 = 4 games (returned from said injury in Rd 4)
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by zim »

I wouldn't touch Lloyd Perret. He has the same motivation issues that some of our current players have even when he should be busting his **** to cement a spot.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by greeneyed »

There are only 25 rounds this year.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by BigPapa »

Terepo and Perret talk about going backwards.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Northern Raider »

Matt wrote: April 24, 2018, 11:38 am
Northern Raider wrote: April 24, 2018, 10:50 am
edwahu wrote: April 24, 2018, 10:39 am Terepo missed nearly a year with a pec injury as well.
He’s still never locked down a permanent 1st grade spot.

I rate him and still think he’s worth signing but would be paying the $300k-$400k Matt was suggesting. No way the Eels or any other team are going to offer that money so why should we?
I think your maths isnt much chop here mate. 26 rounds a yr, 24 games (its changed this yr obviously), he is avging 20 a yr. Thats not fringe. Thats top 17 with injuries/ suspensions.

As for $ value. I'm making it up on the fly. I have no clue as to what players are on. But working backwards from Jrs 700K, Id say half that seems fair for a guy who will likely play game 100 this yr. If you get him on less, then your laughing.
81games over 5 seasons around 16, not 20. Not sure how you came to that figure. Yes, injury may have had an effect but he’s hardly a stalwart of what is an underperforming team. If you think he’s worth $300k-$400k I’m sure his manager would love to speak to you.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by reptar »

BigPapa wrote: April 24, 2018, 3:14 pm Terepo and Perret talk about going backwards.
Moonwalking, even.
Gina Riley: Oh, come on, John. That’s a bit old hat, the corrupt IOC delegate.
John Clarke: Old hat? Gina, in the scientific world when they see that something is happening again and again and again, repeatedly, they don’t call it old hat. They call it a pattern.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by zim »

Perret I would consider a backward step, or at least a side ways step to another lazy player but on a lot less money.... so maybe that's the plus?
Terepo puts in. On the right coin he'd be an excellent bench / depth signing but you'd also need to sign a starting prop.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by BigPapa »

zim wrote: April 24, 2018, 4:19 pm Perret I would consider a backward step, or at least a side ways step to another lazy player but on a lot less money.... so maybe that's the plus?
Terepo puts in. On the right coin he'd be an excellent bench / depth signing but you'd also need to sign a starting prop.
We can make our depth signings later or promote from players already here. Our first priority should be signing a starting prop with Paulo all but gone.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by zim »

That's just not how the process unfolds.
Or at least not in any way that you would agree with.

Talking about signing depth (or the club signing depth right now) has no bearing at all on what their priorities are privately.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by BigPapa »

zim wrote: April 24, 2018, 4:44 pm That's just not how the process unfolds.
Or at least not in any way that you would agree with.

Talking about signing depth (or the club signing depth right now) has no bearing at all on what their priorities are privately.
I see us in a similar boat to the Tigers last year Woods was linked with a move to the Dogs as was a few of their other players. In the end they signed several new players but Packer and Matulino were thier key signings imo. The sooner we sign Paulos replacement the better we need to get the ball rolling while there is still decent players available.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by sprintman »

Don’t think anybody of note would join us under the current regime
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Raider47 »

Can you do a coach and CEO post please too?
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Dusty »

I would argue that there are no decent quality signings off contract except RCG


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14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by BigPapa »

sprintman wrote: April 25, 2018, 10:03 am Don’t think anybody of note would join us under the current regime
You're right let's give up before we even start.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Lucy »

BigPapa wrote:
sprintman wrote: April 25, 2018, 10:03 am Don’t think anybody of note would join us under the current regime
You're right let's give up before we even start.
No. We don't give up. We remove the problem. We let the coach walk. Then we have a new regime. New prospects. New opportunities.

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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

This instalment of the Raiders scouting thread will look at Props. Thus far we have looked at Halves and Prop. I’ll look to do a write up for each position as I get time. I’ll be looking at those players off contract in the NRL in both 2018 and 2019 for options. However, I might add the odd ‘surplus’ or ‘disgruntled’ player I think might be worth a shot. I am not across the ESL, so I won’t be looking there.

Lock

Let’s have a look at what the Raiders are currently working with:
Lock: Charlie Gubb*
Backup: Corey Horsbugh
Off Contract: Iosia Soliola, Luke Bateman, Emre Guler

* Contract with option in clubs favour.
# May have signed elsewhere

So, according to the simplistic depth formula, we need:
Lock: None
Bench: Four

Due to the nature of contracts, and the apparent worthlessness of the paper they are written on, we will look at the next two seasons of options. The reason for this is, the term ‘early release’ is becoming more and more of a common occurrence.

The source I use for off contract players doesn’t separate Lock as its own position. They fall in the prop and backrow lists. I have tried to separate them out, so if there is a player missing you would consider a prop, I may have moved them to that list and vice versa.

Lock players off contract in 2018:
Luke Bateman, Greg Eastwood, Shaun Fensom, Paul Gallen, Luke Yates, David Gower, Iosia Soliola, Jason Clark, Tui Kamikamica, Simon Mannering, Beau Scott, Ryan Simpkins

Lock players off contract in 2019:
James Fisher-Harris, Bunty Afoa, Sam Burgess, Charlie Gubb, Agnatius Paasi, Ligi Sao, Francis Tualau, Billy Magoulias, Kyle Turner, Cameron Murray

I’m not going to have a list of players ‘we could never get’ as this is a terrible mentality to recruitment to start with. However, I think we have to be realistic about our options, and I also think we need to be serious about our needs. Therefore, here is my ‘no fly zone’ and a brief reason why.

No Fly Zone 2018
Greg Eastwood – He has a heart issue, he has a weight issue, and isn’t getting younger.
Paul Gallen – He will retire soon. But no way I want ‘Enemy #1’ in our side.
David Gower – He is a career backup journeyman. Pass.
Jason Clark – He is straight out of the Dave Tyrell mould. Plays a role, but isn’t talented.
Simon Mannering – I can’t see him leaving the Warriors, he is closing on retirement, and is getting more injury prone.
Beau Scott – He is barely holding his spot in an average Eels side. He is aging too.
Ryan Simpkins – This guy can’t catch a break injury wise. He is a hard worker, but depth only.

Young players with good reputations, but we need to win now: None.

Players I have no information on: None.

Ex-Raiders:
Shaun Fensom – Ricky Stuart couldn’t afford the bus driver and had to let him go.

Options 2018:
Luke Yates – He is young, willing, all effort and aggression. However, he is another player in the Bateman mould. You can’t have multiples of the same guy in one squad.
Tui Kamikamica – Tui played at the World Cup for the Fijians. He is a big kid, very much in the Viliame Kikau mould. He has a very tough pack to crack in Melbourne, and highly sort of in Melbourne. He could be worth a punt.

No Fly Zone 2019
Agnatius Paasi – He has one good year. It was after his gang buster Auckland Nines. Warriors bought him after that and he hasn’t been the same.
Ligi Sao – He looks like a handy depth player to me. Fringe top 17 at best. He looks capable at this level, but he would be very low on my priority list, and thus not worth it.
Francis Tualau – He may have made an impact against us in the preseason clash on the Sunshine Coast, but he keeps being left out of a poor Bulldogs side. My question is why?
Kyle Turner – He has a neck issue, is too slow, and is a Dallas Johnson type lock forward; injury prone and no longer relevant in the modern game.

Young players with good reputations, but we need to win now: None

Players I have no information on: None

Options 2019:
James Fisher-Harris (JFH) – He is playing out of his skin at the moment. Providing some serious starch and aggression to the Panthers pack. He is one of a few Panthers that they will struggle to hold onto. He can play 80 minutes in the middle third, as he did against the Cowboys the other night. He can also play on an edge should that be required.
Bunty Afoa – He has proved me wrong in the past 18 months. I really didn’t think much of him after he played his second game against us in 2016. Like JFH, he can play good minutes in the middle or play on an edge. Not as physical as JFH, but is still productive.
Sam Burgess – Crazy not to consider one of the best forwards in the game. However, he is likely a package deal with his brothers. That said, if Paulo and Boyd are gone, spaces might be avaliable. As good as it would be to get a Sam Burgess, you would have to throw the bank and kitchen sink at him, and then open up three Top 30 slots.
Billy Magoulias – Normally he would fall into the ‘youngsters with talent’ category, but he is better than that. He is being groomed to be Paul Gallen’s heir. Physically he is almost a carbon copy, both in height and weight, but also toughness. He loves contact, is aggressive and can ball play a little.
Cameron Murray – The Rabbitohs have moved Sam Burgess to prop to accommodate this kid. He is tough and very willing. He plays lock in a similar way to that of Elliott Whitehead, more work rate than impact, but he looks a special talent.

Re-Sign existing:
Luke Bateman – He is a squad player and fringe Top 17. You need these in your Top 30.
Iosia Soliola – Lock and prop aren’t too dissimilar anymore, but I love his conversion to prop. I love that he allows us to split Paulo and Boyd. He is leading our defensive line and asking the team to follow. While he is doing that, I want him.
Charlie Gubb – Unfortunately his injuries have not given us a chance to really assess his worth yet, but, he is a solid top 17 prop or lock option and depth at worst.
Emre Guler – Raiders picked him up from the Rabbitohs while playing in their junior setup. He has played junior representative footy, and is now doing a very good job for Mounties. You keep him as long as possible.

Final Thoughts:
Raiders have youth and depth on their side as far as Lock goes. Guler and Horsbugh look like special talents. They are still very young, and a little raw, but give them a yr or two and they will be pushing for the NRL.

You need to keep at least one of Soliola, Bateman and Gubb in your Top 30, maybe two. They will only ever be solid to good, NRL players, but they are a requirement of any squad as part of the cap. As I’m writing this, Bateman has re-signed, so, do you take another? For mine, you keep Soliola.

With Luke Bateman re-signing, we don’t need a Luke Yates. Sam Burgess is a pipe dream. I would pass on Billy Magoulias because we have two youngsters of similar age and ability.

In terms of prioritising the remaining options:
1. James Fisher-Harris (JFH) is my #1 pick of these options. Penrith won’t be able to keep everyone in their forward pack. I want Reagan Campbell-Gillard first, JFH second, Leota third.
2. Bunty Afoa is my second pick. His versatility and the fact that he is a proven product.
3. Cameron Murray is only a marginal third, with experience being the thing I’m most worried about.
4. Tui Kamikamica is the player I’d take a punt on if the other guys didn’t work out. He is a Fijian talent, can could potentially be anything.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Dusty »

Liam Knight?


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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

Dusty wrote: May 7, 2018, 6:01 pm Liam Knight?


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Is a prop. Whats the Q?
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by edwahu »

He moved to lock for Mounties a while back. Guler played lock on the weekend and did a good job.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Matt »

edwahu wrote: May 7, 2018, 7:13 pm He moved to lock for Mounties a while back. Guler is now also playing lock.
Fair enough then.
As has been mentioned, prop and lock are very similar these days, but i had him on the prop list.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by edwahu »

I don't know whether he and Guler are really options, I think they are building up their motors.

IMO and depending on Papalii, Horsburgh will be the most likely long term lock. If Papii goes I would think he will push for the spot by the end of next year.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by SeeBee101 »

Horsburgh is still too young... Guler has a couple years on him and he looks the goods. Pumped out 70+ minutes (14 runs, 125 metres, 32 tackles) on the weekend. Been pretty consistent all season too.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by edwahu »

SeeBee101 wrote: May 7, 2018, 7:49 pm Horsburgh is still too young... Guler has a couple years on him and he looks the goods. Pumped out 70+ minutes (14 runs, 125 metres, 32 tackles) on the weekend. Been pretty consistent all season too.
They are the same age, almost to the day.

I doubt Guler has the mobility defensively to play lock for those minutes in firsts. As I said I suspect playing him there is more about building his endurance as a prop.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by Dusty »

Matt wrote:
Dusty wrote: May 7, 2018, 6:01 pm Liam Knight?


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Is a prop. Whats the Q?
Prop, Lock, edge

I was wanting to know why he wasn’t an option there


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14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by zim »

Matt wrote:
edwahu wrote: May 7, 2018, 7:13 pm He moved to lock for Mounties a while back. Guler is now also playing lock.
Fair enough then.
As has been mentioned, prop and lock are very similar these days, but i had him on the prop list.
Ryan Carr loves stuffing around with his roster.
Knight's an out and out prop.
He's named Makatoa at prop all season and he'll never be a prop unless the interchange drops to something like 4.
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Re: Raiders Scouting Thread

Post by edwahu »

zim wrote: May 7, 2018, 8:39 pm
Matt wrote:
edwahu wrote: May 7, 2018, 7:13 pm He moved to lock for Mounties a while back. Guler is now also playing lock.
Fair enough then.
As has been mentioned, prop and lock are very similar these days, but i had him on the prop list.
Ryan Carr loves stuffing around with his roster.
Knight's an out and out prop.
He's named Makatoa at prop all season and he'll never be a prop unless the interchange drops to something like 4.
I don't think you can blame Carr, Makatoa has been playing prop for two years. Everytime I watch him there he does actually play the prop role too.
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