Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Good call last night...well done if you were on.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 18 Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks

The Raiders played their best game of the year, and interestingly it was without Wighton at No. 6 due to rep duties.

Frawley’s kicking game was amazing and it was the key to the Raiders building pressure and tiring the big Manly forward pack. Off the back of this fatigue, Starling and Sam Williams scored three tries by playing direct and running the ball at the tiring forwards.

It was the first time the Raiders had clearly executed a game plan and it must have been tempting for Stuart to retain this halves pairing and move Wighton to 1 or the centres.

While the Raiders did look much better, it was a heavily weakened Manly team and a close to full strength Sharks team will pose a much bigger challenge this weekend.

The Sharks form had been very impressive and although they have won 5 of their last 6, that winning streak has mainly been due to a soft draw over the past 6 weeks. The Broncos showed that controlled, disciplined footy is enough to worry this Sharks line up and I do think the Raiders have an edge in terms of star power.

While the Raiders are still missing Whitehead, I think the Raiders turned a corner in their win against Manly and the move north to get them out of Canberra and in camp for a month, might help the squad get over some of the division that had obviously been bubbling away in the nation’s capital.

On my ratings, this game could go either way but have had a small play at the Raiders on the head to head. I will keep it small because I still have concerns about just how cohesive this Raiders team is at the moment. Happy to see odds have shortened from the decent price earlier in the week, so let us hope Raiders can get the W.

Predicted score
Raiders 20
Sharks 20
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 19 Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders

Eels 1.18
Raiders 5.00
Eels -15.5 / Raiders +15.5


The Eels are establishing themselves as one of the real contenders to the Storm and the Panthers, and if I had to pick a team that could beat those two in the semi-finals, it would be the Eels or Manly.

However, the loss of Moses is a big blow and although I rate Arthur, he is still finding his way which we saw in the second half against the Titans. The Eels lack the killer instinct without Moses which is the only reason I am not taking the Eels at the minus here.

The Raiders have finally gone back to back and appear to be a much happier camp of late. Countering this, the loss of young gun Savage and Wighton this weekend is a cruel blow for a team that has already lost their first choice full back and halfback.

I like the control that Frawley and Williams will provide, but in defence, the Eels edge runners are as good as any in the competition and Coach Arthur will be sure to target Sam Williams all night long.

The Raiders forward pack is still looking pretty strong, with Hudson Young, Joe Tapine, Josh Papalii and CHN all providing plenty of attacking spark with their offloads and strong running games.

If the Raiders do what the did to Manly a fortnight ago and kick well and complete their sets, they could turn this into a real contest, but I think the Eels will have too much strike power out wide, with the return of Ferguson reuniting the Eels lethal back 3.

The bookies have this line about right. For the more speculative bettors, I like the chances of the Raiders keeping this close in the first half, the half time draw is around 12.00.

Predicted score
Eels 28
Raiders 16
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons

Raiders 1.29
Dragons 3.60
Raiders -10.5 (1.91) / Dragons +10.5 (1.91)


The Raiders came crashing back to earth last weekend, after their purple patch of form was shown to be not much more than a mirage.

Against weakened teams that were off their game, the Raiders played disciplined and aggressive footy. But when the Knights controlled the early possession, the Raiders defensive was shot to bits.

Wighton was horrible and his poor 2021 form is finally being called out by the media. When the unhappy camp rumours swirled around the Raiders, there were some that said Wighton was one that was not too happy, and his form and attitude does indicate something is not right.

In 16 games, Wighton has four tries, six try assists, three line breaks and six line break assists. His halves partner, the unheralded Sam Williams, in only nine games, four tries, four try assists, three line breaks and three line break assists.

Considering Wighton is the NSW No. 6, reigning Dally M and the Raiders highest paid player, his coach should be getting a lot more in the attacking department. Wighton’s kicking game continues to be off, with Matt Frawley showing in Wighton’s absence what this team can do when they get repeat sets and control the game.

Luckily for the Raiders, they are up against a Dragons team whose 2021 campaign has fallen off the rails since the infamous BBQ. While they welcome back some key players from suspension, they have lost their best player and leader in Ben Hunt.

Guys like Lomax and Ravalawa will provide some strike power out wide, but they have not played much footy in recent months and could struggle if the Raiders turn up with lots of energy.

On my ratings, I have the Raiders about 12 points better here and so not much value on offer.

Predicted score
Raiders 30
Dragons 18
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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That's a big predicted margin!
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Ah man we're getting spanked now

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 22 Melbourne Storm V Canberra Raiders

Storm 1.05
Raiders 11.00
Storm -25.5 / Raiders +25.5


A month ago the Storm were so far ahead of everyone that you would be lucky to find a punter willing to bet on any other team to win the 2021 Premiership.

But I think they have slowly started to drift back to those teams hot on their tails in recent weeks. In Round 19 they beat the Cowboys by 4 points in Townsville. While the Storm made a lot of errors in that match, the Cowboys (a team currently sitting 14th) managed to go with the Storm for the entire game.

Then last week, against a Manly team that made 12 errors, completed at 67 per cent, conceded seven penalties and six ruck infringements, the Storm were losing the game shortly after half time. Manly lost due to some silly errors while trying to defuse kicks.

Anyone that still thinks this Storm is unbeatable, is not watching closely enough. They are probably the same people that said the Panthers were unbeatable at this point in the 2020 season.

While the Storm are a chance to welcome back big Nelson, the Raiders have won four of their last five matches and although they were average against the Dragons, I think the Raiders goal line defence was very impressive.

With guys like Papalii, Wighton, Whitehead, Hodgson, Tapine, Rapana and Sutton, this Raiders line up is still full of internationals, while guys like Starling, Young and Guler are all hitting their straps. So I think they will cover the huge line they have been given here.

Although the six again rule is still being enforced, the referees have stopped giving away petty six agains to the dominant teams, so we have stopped seeing so many blowouts in recent weeks.

Although having guys like Papenhuyzen and Grant on the bench is a great luxury, having two great fullbacks and hookers is good for depth during the season, but it is not as important during an 80 minute period. If anything, I think the return of Papenhuyzen may have disrupted their rhythm, as it has coincided with their form dropping off.

While I think the class of the Storm will shine through for the win during the second half, 25 points is a big line! The Raiders are a good chance of being in this game at half time.

Predicted score
Storm 25
Raiders 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles

Raiders 3.00
Sea Eagles 1.39
Raiders +8.5 / Sea Eagles -8.5


I feel like the Raiders had every chance to beat the Storm and although they failed to get the job done, the fact that they came so close suggests to me that perhaps they are a much bigger chance of an upset here.

The Raiders bombed one try over line, Wighton failed to reach touch at a crucial stage and they dropped some ball when on the attack…but still had chances to win with 10 minutes left.

With CNK back in the squad, and the aging Croker replaced…I think this Raiders team is stronger here than they were last week. While Starling is a loss, Hodgson playing the 80 minutes at 9 is not beyond him and could help him warm into the game, rather than overplaying his hand.

The Raiders forward pack looks strong again and although they had some moments of fatigue in the first half against the Storm, they finished over the top of the Storm. Against a Manly team missing a few forwards, I think the battle in the forwards will be very even.

The loss of Tommy T has rightly moved the markets massively, with bookies attaching about 8 points to the brilliant fullback.

Despite Funa appearing as the replacement on NRL.com, I have little doubt he will be moved to the wing. While Garrick has shown he can fill in at 1 and Manly have shown they can without Tommy T, I do think the Raiders are now a really good shot here. Although the Raiders backline is short on experience, with Kris, Harley, Timoko and Simonson are all young and lacking in experience, they are all very athletic and I am happy to see Coach Ricky has realised that youthful energy is key in 2021.

Although I think the Raiders might again fall short, I think this will be a great game, with the Raiders big name players such as Wighton, Hodgson and Papalli standing tall.

Predicted score
Manly 22
Raiders 14
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Sorry guys, running SUPER late this week

2021 Round 24 New Zealand Warriors V Canberra Raiders

Warriors 2.72
Raiders 1.46
Sea Eagles 1.39
Warriors +6.5 / Raiders -6.5


The Warriors have shown a lot of fight in recent weeks, despite losing their two best players a month ago (RTS and Tohu Harris) and dealing with a few key suspensions.

To his credit, Coach Brown has been very active in the second-hand player market, recruiting guys like Matt Lodge, DWZ and Chad Townsend…not to mention the amazing pick up of Reece Walsh earlier in the year.

Out wide I have been impressed with the form of Hiku, while in the middle guys like Curran, Fonua-Blake, and E Katoa are all extremely dangerous with ball in hand.

The one characteristic the Warriors have shown over the past month or two, has been a willingness to fight all the way to full time. With a high completion rate and a good kicking game, they always give themselves a chance. So, taking them with a head start of more than 6 points against an inconsistent Raiders team is a good play in my opinion.

While the Warriors have been flogged by some of the top 4 teams this year, in every other game this year they have either won or been very competitive. In fact, they have lost 8 games by 8 points or less, including 6 games by 4 or less.

Therefore, although they will very likely miss the 8 this year, they have been a lot more competitive than their position on the ladder indicates.

While the Raiders have been highly competitive against both the Storm and Manly in recent weeks and have covered for us on both occasions, they continue to make errors at key times and their lack of an effective halves pairing has been costly.

While Wighton has shown moments of brilliance, his overall form is down on 2020…as is the form of Papalii…who would not be regarded as a top 5 prop in the NRL at the moment, after commonly been seen as the best prop in the world in 2019-20.

While I like that Ricky Stuart has named Frawley at 7 to improve the Raiders kicking game, and CNK should have a better impact this weekend after getting some time on the field, I do think this Raiders squad is at risk of being disjointed and potentially a little distracted by the sacking of Curtis Scott.

The fact that Scott joins George Williams as two players sacked during the season, with both players alleging the club had abandoned them, does not bode well for team harmony and I think the Warriors will keep this very close.

On my ratings, the Warriors could win this, but the Warriors have a knack for losing close games and Walsh’s goal kicking has not been great of late, so I think the Raiders might do just enough to get the win here.

Predicted score
Raiders 21
Warriors 20
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters

Raiders 2.21
Roosters 1.67
Raiders +2.5 (1.90) / Roosters -2.5 (1.93)


A rematch of the epic 2019 Grand Final, this match is set to be an absolute ripper. Fresh off their controversial flogging at the hands of Souths, the Roosters will be itching to get out there and reassert their physical dominance this weekend.

This weekend they welcome back JWH and Crichton in the middle, and J Moz and Ikuvalu out wide. They are four big inclusions, so I can see why the market has once again put the Roosters as favourites.

However there are a few reasons why I think the Roosters may be getting a little bit overrated by the bookies:

1) JMoz and Ikuvalu have been out for a little while, so I do not think they are going to come straight back in and hit top form. In fact, there is still a chance both guys are a late withdrawal in my opinion, as Coach Robinson would be crazy to risk them if they are underdone, with a likely elimination final ahead of them next weekend.

2) Manu is a huge loss. With so many guns already missing, Manu’s finishing skills will be sorely missed. With JWH still in doubt and the loss of Fletcher Baker, this Roosters team is still well down on troops.

3) Tedesco looks a little tired. He has played his absolute guts out in 19 games this year, as well three Origins…so I am sure his coach would love to have the luxury of giving his star fullback a week off (and I am not writing off the possibility he is rested in a late minute shock decision – because it is very unlikely the Roosters can move to 4th, as Manly will be very hard to beat, so Coach Robinson must be tempted to rest some big gun here and focus on a potential elimination game against the Knights in Week 1 of the finals).

4) The Roosters form has been anything but convincing. Not only were they flogged by Souths last weekend, they won in pretty unconvincing fashion against a depleted Dragons line up the week before, and were lucky to get the win against the Broncos the week before that…so they are limping into the finals if we are being honest about it.

As for the Raiders, they are hard to get a read on. On the downside, they still look very prone to errors and guys like Hodgson and Wighton are well below their best.

But as a positive, they have won 5 of their last 8, with two of those losses being close encounters with the Storm and Manly - both games they could have won.

With CNK back at 1, Rapana back on the wing, Tapine and Papalii playing great up front, and Young and Whitehead playing well in the second row, I think the Raiders have a bit more momentum than the Roosters (despite these two squads measuring up very closely on paper).

The Raiders also have more to play for, with this match a do or die affair, whereas the Roosters will know that whatever the outcome of this one, next week is judgement day for them. While both teams will be desperate, that factor could be the difference in the final 10 minutes and should be enough to see the Raiders get a narrow win.

Predicted score
Raiders 22
Roosters 20
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