The Canberra Raiders' run home

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greeneyed
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The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by greeneyed »

Top-eight shock set for stunning fall as NRL finals race heats up: The Run Home

11. CANBERRA RAIDERS (14, -90)

Run home: Sharks (H), Eels (A), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: An upset victory over Manly in Round 17 gives Canberra a little hope on the run home. The Sea Eagles were missing Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, but it doesn’t get easier, with some strong teams coming up in the draw. Canberra should beat the Dragons, and the Warriors is the other game that looks winnable.

Projected results: LLLWLLLL

Predicted finish: 13th (16 points)

Read more: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-pr ... 89ef3efd55
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greeneyed
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by greeneyed »

I’d have it as…

Definite loss: Storm
Very difficult: Eels, Sea Eagles, maybe the Roosters
Winnable: Sharks, Knights, Dragons, Warriors

Five wins might be enough.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Northern Raider »

So many coin flip games for us in the run home. Could win 5. Could win none.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Most years you need to go 12-12 to make the finals, but I get the impression this will be one of the years where 11-13 is sufficient.

So going 5-3 for the rest of the year will be required at a minimum I would say.

You can probably forget about beating the Storm, Eels and a full strength Manly.

Roosters results over the last 2 months have actually been very ordinary so you wouldn't put them in the unwinnable category.

Unfortunately I have precisely 0% trust in Raiders to bank supposedly "winnable" games. In fact there is not much evidence that Sharks, Knights and even Dragons aren't, frankly, just better teams than us at present.

I will be quite surprised if we make the finals.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by -PJ- »

No one to blame but themselves.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Northern Raider »

Mickey_Raider wrote: July 16, 2021, 9:07 am Most years you need to go 12-12 to make the finals, but I get the impression this will be one of the years where 11-13 is sufficient.

So going 5-3 for the rest of the year will be required at a minimum I would say.

You can probably forget about beating the Storm, Eels and a full strength Manly.

Roosters results over the last 2 months have actually been very ordinary so you wouldn't put them in the unwinnable category.

Unfortunately I have precisely 0% trust in Raiders to bank supposedly "winnable" games. In fact there is not much evidence that Sharks, Knights and even Dragons aren't, frankly, just better teams than us at present.

I will be quite surprised if we make the finals.
It's amazing to think that we're 6-10 yet only 1 win out of the 8. Most notably the team in 8th spot is the one we play this week. Effectively the result is a 2 game swing. Go 6-11 and we're toast. At 7-10 we're right back in it.

As for Sharks, Knights and Dragons being better. Knights at full strength I'd say yes, although their form can be flaky. Dragons not so much. Think they've over achieved this year. A lot depends on how they rebound from their latest disruption. Sharks I'm not conceding to. They have a very low ceiling IMO.

The key is how our own squad lifts. Without the micro analysis a lot depends on our spine firing. Particularly Wighton and Hodgo regaining their form. That might mean a change of role for Hodgo in playing that first receiver role and Starling at dummy half.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by papabear »

The more we see starling in at dummy half and hodgson roaming the better we look.

Also Papalii looked excellent in origin and his club form continues to improve, thus I think we look ok. We wont be getting to 11 wins though - Unless a lot of things go our way, realistically I can see us losing out (or only winning the dragons game as said in the predictor).

This weekend is really the end of the line for us - lose this one and it is really over...
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by afgtnk »

No Ricky Stuart team is scraping into the 8. We've been crap for the majority of the season so far, we'll continue to be crap for the remainder.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Northern Raider »

You're a regular ray of sunshine as always. :lol:
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by afgtnk »

Just looking at basic facts and the probability of things. In 17 years prior coaching he hasn't once finished in positions 6-8. I struggle to think of a coach with his longevity who has a similar record.

Every time a team of his ends up in the finals, they're a genuine contender. They don't go in limping and then whimper out. When he has a suck season, his team usually sucks systemically.

Maybe this year will buck the long-standing trend, who knows. With the way we've been disappointed though, I highly doubt it.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Botman »

I’m with akshsha on this one
We’ve been a bad football team all year long, including the opening 4 games which we played mostly very poorly and tooting our own horn about how good it was to be 3-1 despite playing so poorly

The reality is we’ve maintained that level of play and the variance of results have now equalised. We are exactly where we deserve to be and there is no reason to think things will drastically change

Though I would obviously love to be wrong
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by zim »

Given recent form I'm going to wait to see what Billy has to say.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by gangrenous »

Botman wrote: The reality is we’ve maintained that level of play and the variance of results have now equalised.
What a strange way to say we got significantly worse after CNK got hurt
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Botman »

gangrenous wrote: July 16, 2021, 7:25 pm
Botman wrote: The reality is we’ve maintained that level of play and the variance of results have now equalised.
What a strange way to say we got significantly worse after CNK got hurt
Go back and watch that sharks game, the warriors game... even the tigers and titans games where we coasted easily... we were so god damn far off the pace it wasnt funny. We all (me included!) thought it was a good side winning ugly... we now know that level of play was simply who the 2021 Canberra Raiders were. We've stayed right there the entire season.

If you think we'd a contender with CNK in the team and playing that level of footy, then I have swampland in Florida to sell you.
Last edited by Botman on July 16, 2021, 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Billy Walker »

zim wrote: July 16, 2021, 3:58 pm Given recent form I'm going to wait to see what Billy has to say.
I’m leaning towards us making it and not totally ruling out that we might even get there with a little bit of momentum that will concern some of the higher placed teams.

Alternatively we may not make it but hopefully we do :shock:
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by gangrenous »

Botman wrote:
gangrenous wrote: July 16, 2021, 7:25 pm
Botman wrote: The reality is we’ve maintained that level of play and the variance of results have now equalised.
What a strange way to say we got significantly worse after CNK got hurt
Go back and watch that sharks game, the warriors game... even the tigers and titans games where we coasted easily... we were so god damn far off the pace it wasnt funny. We all (me included!) thought it was a good side winning ugly... we now know that level of play was simply who the 2021 Canberra Raiders were. We've stayed right there the entire season.

If you think we'd a contender with CNK in the team and playing that level of footy, then I have swampland in Florida to sell you.
That’s not what I said.

However you certainly said we continued on at exactly the same level of play and just natural variance got us. That’s Bull.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Botman »

You’re welcome to that opinion
I don’t share it.

We, and I firmly include myself in that, kept finding excuses for the very ordinary standard of play we were operating at
Even in wins, the games we sort of coasted through, what we have seen this year was on display for large portions of those games. Clunky, disjointed attack. Forward pack lacking in legs. Lack of line speed. No defensive intensity.
It was alright though… early season. We’re not close to our best and 3-1

The tigers game was just first game rust. Understandable
The Sharks game was played in horrendous conditions. Easy to dismiss
The warriors game we focused on the one bad forward pass call. Nice distraction
Titans game, a better performance but we’re warming…

Na, I can see now this was just who the 2021 Raiders were. And so it has been so.
Based on performance, we were a bad football team in the opening 4 weeks of the season, and we’ve been a bad football team since. The foundation of this stinky season had been laid. The die was cast. If that's not how you see it, cool.Im not really interested in relitigating the CNK debate. My position hasnt change and nor will until i see something from him to make me change it. I dont think your is changing either. So agree to disagree.
Last edited by Botman on July 16, 2021, 8:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by greeneyed »

Knowing the Raiders, we will beat the Storm and lose to the Sharks, Warriors, Knights and Dragons.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by afgtnk »

greeneyed wrote: July 16, 2021, 8:32 pm Knowing the Raiders, we will beat the Storm and lose to the Sharks, Warriors, Knights and Dragons.
Doubt it. That's hallmarks of a Furner side, not Stuart.

Stuart's sides generally punch around their own weight or below, relative to their ladder position and form throughout a season.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Dr Zaius »

Don't do it to yourself. No good can come of this.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by -TW- »

I wish clubs were knocked out once they can't make the finals

That is the only way this suffering will end early

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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by FROG »

I can't see us making the 8. I've said it many times our problems are mental. I saw signs against manly and comments after the game to suggest we might have turned a corner. I'm also hopeful that by moving north the team could gel and we could get back on the horse, but I think we've left ourselves with too much to do (plus CNK isn't coming back). I just hope that once it's a foregone conclusion that we start to build for next year and provide players like Schneider with an opportunity to gain some experience.

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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by -PJ- »

-TW- wrote: July 16, 2021, 10:42 pm I wish clubs were knocked out once they can't make the finals

That is the only way this suffering will end early

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Unfortunately we can still make the finals.

So suck it up princess..

Sit through every excruciating second of play like the rest of us.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by RedRaider »

While I would always prefer to make the finals and the experience in big match pressure that brings to the squad, I just don't see it for us this year. The second half fade outs earlier in the season have cost us vital competition points. If we could point to a wave of form propelling us forward to the finals then I would not have this view. I will continue to barrack for the Raiders until the end of our final match. Sadly I don't think there will be finals footy for us this year.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Canberra Milk »

We certainly can make the 8. Whether we will though, I wouldn't put my hard earned on it
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Rickmando »

All making the 8 would do is get our numb nut head coach extended for another half decade.

Wake up folks and look past W’s and L’s. This club and team are so clearly off the pace of the better teams in the NRL in nearly every footballing aspect you can think of. It’s systemic change you should be agitating for, not whether we beat the Sharks or the storm in a game of outdated grind-ball
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Raider Azz »

Botman wrote:You’re welcome to that opinion
I don’t share it.

We, and I firmly include myself in that, kept finding excuses for the very ordinary standard of play we were operating at
Even in wins, the games we sort of coasted through, what we have seen this year was on display for large portions of those games. Clunky, disjointed attack. Forward pack lacking in legs. Lack of line speed. No defensive intensity.
It was alright though… early season. We’re not close to our best and 3-1

The tigers game was just first game rust. Understandable
The Sharks game was played in horrendous conditions. Easy to dismiss
The warriors game we focused on the one bad forward pass call. Nice distraction
Titans game, a better performance but we’re warming…

Na, I can see now this was just who the 2021 Raiders were. And so it has been so.
Based on performance, we were a bad football team in the opening 4 weeks of the season, and we’ve been a bad football team since. The foundation of this stinky season had been laid. The die was cast. If that's not how you see it, cool.Im not really interested in relitigating the CNK debate. My position hasnt change and nor will until i see something from him to make me change it. I dont think your is changing either. So agree to disagree.
I get your overall point but you also conveniently left out the fact we played 80% of the warriors game with 1 man on the bench and players playing on with injuries.

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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by gerg »

Raider Azz wrote:
Botman wrote:You’re welcome to that opinion
I don’t share it.

We, and I firmly include myself in that, kept finding excuses for the very ordinary standard of play we were operating at
Even in wins, the games we sort of coasted through, what we have seen this year was on display for large portions of those games. Clunky, disjointed attack. Forward pack lacking in legs. Lack of line speed. No defensive intensity.
It was alright though… early season. We’re not close to our best and 3-1

The tigers game was just first game rust. Understandable
The Sharks game was played in horrendous conditions. Easy to dismiss
The warriors game we focused on the one bad forward pass call. Nice distraction
Titans game, a better performance but we’re warming…

Na, I can see now this was just who the 2021 Raiders were. And so it has been so.
Based on performance, we were a bad football team in the opening 4 weeks of the season, and we’ve been a bad football team since. The foundation of this stinky season had been laid. The die was cast. If that's not how you see it, cool.Im not really interested in relitigating the CNK debate. My position hasnt change and nor will until i see something from him to make me change it. I dont think your is changing either. So agree to disagree.
I get your overall point but you also conveniently left out the fact we played 80% of the warriors game with 1 man on the bench and players playing on with injuries.

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That was a pivotal game for our season I believe. We somehow scrape out a win in that game, totally against the odds and I think we would have actually gained a lot of confidence and momentum. It's been diabolical since then.

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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Botman »

Raider Azz wrote: July 17, 2021, 1:22 pm
Botman wrote:You’re welcome to that opinion
I don’t share it.

We, and I firmly include myself in that, kept finding excuses for the very ordinary standard of play we were operating at
Even in wins, the games we sort of coasted through, what we have seen this year was on display for large portions of those games. Clunky, disjointed attack. Forward pack lacking in legs. Lack of line speed. No defensive intensity.
It was alright though… early season. We’re not close to our best and 3-1

The tigers game was just first game rust. Understandable
The Sharks game was played in horrendous conditions. Easy to dismiss
The warriors game we focused on the one bad forward pass call. Nice distraction
Titans game, a better performance but we’re warming…

Na, I can see now this was just who the 2021 Raiders were. And so it has been so.
Based on performance, we were a bad football team in the opening 4 weeks of the season, and we’ve been a bad football team since. The foundation of this stinky season had been laid. The die was cast. If that's not how you see it, cool.Im not really interested in relitigating the CNK debate. My position hasnt change and nor will until i see something from him to make me change it. I dont think your is changing either. So agree to disagree.
I get your overall point but you also conveniently left out the fact we played 80% of the warriors game with 1 man on the bench and players playing on with injuries.

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Fair point but it just kind of feeds into the point
we lost the game, we had a ton of injuries and guys playing hurt and poor officiating... it was easy to ignore the warning signs of the season ahead because we had other things we could blame it on

But the cracks in the foundation were clearly there and i just dont buy the idea that CNK was going to magically paper over cracks and stop them from being the season derailing issues they've proven to be.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by gangrenous »

CNK would have papered over the cracks to the point of being finalists. I have no doubt.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by greeneyed »

The run home: Each team’s outlook heading into final stretch

Canberra Raiders
9th. 16pts. -74

Round 19: Eels (A)
Round 20: Knights (A)
Round 21: Dragons (H)
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)

Consecutive wins over Manly and Cronulla draws them level with the eighth-placed Sharks on points. The Raiders have endured a frustrating season, with much of the mojo that got them to a grand final two years ago appearing to have worn off with just five wins in the first 16 rounds.

Five of their final seven games come against current top-eight sides, including away clashes against Parramatta and Melbourne.

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/01/the ... l-stretch/
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by -TW- »

If we play like we did on the weekend with some enterprise we could easily go 4-3 and finish 11-13 which probably finishes 8th


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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by greeneyed »

If we can beat the Eels, it really opens it up.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by CrabLord »

If we play to our expectations, being away performing okay. Winning the games we should win, I have us at 7th. If.

The likes of Cronulla, Newcastle, ST George etc. are a rabble. One of which we should break clear of. Again, IF we can play to our expectations.

I have us losing to Storm, and winning one of Parra, or Manly. Even dropping both of those games, winning the remainder should leave us a game clear at 7th. In my scenario an injury depleted Roosters at 6th is a week 1 finals lineup, with the next game likely a South Sydney match up where anything can happen.

Canberra no longer have any room for error, and this result is highly doable. We all know our team are the ultimate procrastinators who leave it to the last minute to make a run end of the season. Again, this is all a big if. Throw one more stupid game we should have won away, the season is over.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Mickey_Raider »

If we manage to scrape into the finals, this year will strongly resemble of those 2010/2012 Furner-esque years where we were diabolical for 2/3 to 3/4 of the year only to finally find something late.
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