The Canberra Raiders' run home

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Azza
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Azza »

Raiders you diabolical
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by papabear »

if we make the finals - its because everyone outside of the top 6 are kidding themselves.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by mongoose »

if we scrape into the 8 it would be crazy, shows how terrible this comp is outside the top 5-6 teams....

Anyway looks like we will be fighting it out with:

Dragons - Really hard to get a read on the Dragons this year, sometimes they look like they can match it with some of the top 6 teams, other games they're just awful.

Sharks - I think they're a better team than what they showed against us, they weren't ready for our much quicker game and constant offloads though. Seems like we're a bogey side for them in recent seasons.

Knights - They rely too much on Ponga to create anything. Their attack is terrible outside of him.

Titans - Can score quick points when things are going their way but they're one of the worst teams in the comp at stopping momentum. If we played them the last 2 weeks we would have beaten them comfortably.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by gerg »

papabear wrote:if we make the finals - its because everyone outside of the top 6 are kidding themselves.
Conversely if we don't make the finals everyone outside the top 6 are kidding themselves.

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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

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The run home: Each team’s outlook heading into final stretch

Canberra Raiders
9th 16pts -74

Round 19: Eels (A)
Round 20: Knights (A)
Round 21: Dragons (H)
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)

Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 16th

Consecutive wins over Manly and Cronulla draws them level with the eighth-placed Sharks on points. The Raiders have endured a frustrating season, with much of the mojo that got them to a grand final two years ago appearing to have worn off with just five wins in the first 16 rounds. Five of their final seven games come against current top-eight sides, including away clashes against Parramatta and Melbourne.

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/01/the ... l-stretch/
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Northern Raider »

greeneyed wrote: July 21, 2021, 1:45 pm The run home: Each team’s outlook heading into final stretch

Canberra Raiders
9th 16pts -74

Round 19: Eels (A)
Round 20: Knights (A)
Round 21: Dragons (H)
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)

Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 16th

I love this bit. To finish 4th we need to win every game and hope all other teams from 4th-8th lose everything. To finish 16th we have to produce the duck egg and see the Dogs go undefeated. :lol:
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Hong Kong Raider »

Experts' View: Who'll finish 7th and 8th: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/21/exp ... h-and-8th/

Interesting to see the experts' tips. Kimmorley tipped Wests to make the 8, which would be ironic given that it is rumored that we are interested in Brooks.

I have to say their draw and Newcastle's are very easy, compared to ours. I've always thought it's not a fair competition until you play all the teams home and away twice.

Interesting that some clubs like Melbourne (Aaron Woods), Parra (Milford), Penrith (TPJ) looking at reinforcements for the rest of this year, whereas we have been relatively quiet in the recruitment space despite the injuries. We definitely have cap space this year with GWilliams leaving. I know we have been linked to Brooks, but that is for next year.
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Re: The run home: Raiders ladder predictor

Post by Billy Walker »

Billy Walker wrote: July 16, 2021, 7:41 pm
zim wrote: July 16, 2021, 3:58 pm Given recent form I'm going to wait to see what Billy has to say.
I’m leaning towards us making it and not totally ruling out that we might even get there with a little bit of momentum that will concern some of the higher placed teams.

Alternatively we may not make it but hopefully we do :shock:
I like how this is shaping up….
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by zim »

You've never steered us wrong Billy.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by greeneyed »

One more year without the wooden spoon

Canberra Raiders
9th. 16pts. -72
Round 20: Knights (A)
Round 21: Dragons (H)
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 15th

Toppled the high-flying Eels to record a third straight win for the first time this year and push to the edge of the top eight. Four of their final six games come against current top-eight sides, with clashes against the Storm, Sea Eagles and Roosters to make life tough as they attempt to climb another spot or two on the ladder.

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/01/the ... l-stretch/
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders_Pat »

I've done a ladder predictor and I reckon if things go within reason it will be Storm, Bunnies, Panthers and Manly in the top four, followed by Roosters, Eels and Sharks - in that order. Then I think it will be us and Titans duking it out for 8th. I don't like the Dragons' chances at all. Knights are a chance and Tigers are a very slim chance due to their easy runs home. All of the possibilities are incredibly unpredictable teams though.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by greeneyed »

Alan Tongue has Canberra Raiders in groove for NRL top eight

Former Raiders captain Alan Tongue says a top eight finish for Canberra looks achievable if they play with the same attitude they had in their win over Parramatta.

"To think a few weeks ago it seemed a fair mountain to climb, but they showed in the performance the other night there is a real desire and intent to what they're doing and I think a few of the combinations are starting to come together as well.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by BringinKris »

Raiders_Pat wrote: July 26, 2021, 2:05 pm I've done a ladder predictor and I reckon if things go within reason it will be Storm, Bunnies, Panthers and Manly in the top four, followed by Roosters, Eels and Sharks - in that order. Then I think it will be us and Titans duking it out for 8th. I don't like the Dragons' chances at all. Knights are a chance and Tigers are a very slim chance due to their easy runs home. All of the possibilities are incredibly unpredictable teams though.
I've got the same top seven in that order as well. For eighth, I have a cluster of teams on 11 wins 13 loses that includes us. I think if we lose against the Knights on Saturday it is season over however. Haven't been this fired up for a match this year.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders_Pat »

BringinKris wrote: July 26, 2021, 11:24 pm
Raiders_Pat wrote: July 26, 2021, 2:05 pm I've done a ladder predictor and I reckon if things go within reason it will be Storm, Bunnies, Panthers and Manly in the top four, followed by Roosters, Eels and Sharks - in that order. Then I think it will be us and Titans duking it out for 8th. I don't like the Dragons' chances at all. Knights are a chance and Tigers are a very slim chance due to their easy runs home. All of the possibilities are incredibly unpredictable teams though.
I've got the same top seven in that order as well. For eighth, I have a cluster of teams on 11 wins 13 loses that includes us. I think if we lose against the Knights on Saturday it is season over however. Haven't been this fired up for a match this year.
We can afford to lose the Storm and Manly games. Everything else is pretty much must win... including our final game at home vs Roosters unless we're lucky with other results.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Hong Kong Raider »

Kind of like the situation we found ourselves in 1989 .....

Storm may rest players if they beat Penrith this weekend. Manly are beatable even with Turbo (I watched their game against Wests last weekend). Roosters are unpredictable. We will need to beat them and Manly in the semis anyway so might as well start now and go into every game like it's sudden death. May even play better that way judging from what happened with Parra.

We need to take it one week at a time and get our injured players back on board.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by greeneyed »

For and against: Will the Canberra Raiders make the finals?

With their second-half fadeouts now seemingly a distant memory and strong wins over Manly and Parramatta in recent weeks, the Raiders have the teams in the top eight looking over their shoulder.

Sitting in ninth and with games against the Knights and Dragons coming up, Ricky Stuart's men have the chance to gain momentum and secure a third straight finals appearance.

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/27/for ... he-finals/
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders_Pat »

Hong Kong Raider wrote: July 27, 2021, 2:09 pm Kind of like the situation we found ourselves in 1989 .....

Storm may rest players if they beat Penrith this weekend. Manly are beatable even with Turbo (I watched their game against Wests last weekend). Roosters are unpredictable. We will need to beat them and Manly in the semis anyway so might as well start now and go into every game like it's sudden death. May even play better that way judging from what happened with Parra.

We need to take it one week at a time and get our injured players back on board.
I think our best hope for the season that's not a high statistical improbability for us is beating Roosters in week one of the finals and getting bailed out in week two. You never know what may happen with injuries though.

But we've been horribly inconsistent for most of the year and as you say, we need to take it one game at a time. We need to get the job done this week.
Last edited by Raiders_Pat on July 27, 2021, 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders666 »

I've got us finishing 9th
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

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Raiders666 wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:09 pm I've got us finishing 9th
It will be 8th or 9th. I really think it will come down to the final game against the Roosters at home.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Hong Kong Raider »

Raiders_Pat wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:07 pm
Hong Kong Raider wrote: July 27, 2021, 2:09 pm Kind of like the situation we found ourselves in 1989 .....

Storm may rest players if they beat Penrith this weekend. Manly are beatable even with Turbo (I watched their game against Wests last weekend). Roosters are unpredictable. We will need to beat them and Manly in the semis anyway so might as well start now and go into every game like it's sudden death. May even play better that way judging from what happened with Parra.

We need to take it one week at a time and get our injured players back on board.
I think our best hope for the season that's not a high statistical improbability for us is beating Roosters in week one of the finals and getting bailed out in week two. You never know what may happen with injuries though.

But we've been horribly inconsistent for most of the year and as you say, we need to take it one game at a time. We need to get the job done this week.
I really don't even know if Roosters will get top 4 as Parra have a tough draw playing all the teams above and around them. So we may be playing them if we make it. We put ourselves in a sudden death situation. You just don't know what may happen. Seen it all before with 1989 and 1995 - one year we won 9 straight to win GF and another year we lost only 2 games yet lost to Canterbury in the prelim final and Canterbury won from 6th position and were not looking good going into the finals. We just have to play our best at the right time. It's a shame we don't have new reinforcements and Savage is injured.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders666 »

Raiders_Pat wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:12 pm
Raiders666 wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:09 pm I've got us finishing 9th
It will be 8th or 9th. I really think it will come down to the final game against the Roosters at home.
It all boils down to the Titans really... If they win all the games they should then we won't make it
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders_Pat »

Raiders666 wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:19 pm
Raiders_Pat wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:12 pm
Raiders666 wrote: July 27, 2021, 3:09 pm I've got us finishing 9th
It will be 8th or 9th. I really think it will come down to the final game against the Roosters at home.
It all boils down to the Titans really... If they win all the games they should then we won't make it
Not necessarily... Titans have Storm and Bunnies which they won't win. If they win all of their other games and we win all of ours besides Storm and Manly, we will go through.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders_Pat »

If we lose vs Roosters in the final round then it might come down to whether Titans beat Warriors, which they probably will...
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Raiders666 »

Depends on how the Sharks go without Johnson too
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

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The run home: How each team's placed heading into the final stretch

Canberra Raiders
9th. 18pts. -82
Round 21: Dragons (H)
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)

A shot at a fourth straight win fizzled out with a poor showing against the Knights as a big chance to move into the top eight went begging for Canberra in round 20. Three of their final five games come against current top-eight sides, with clashes against the Storm, Sea Eagles and Roosters to make life tough as they attempt to climb into the finals zone.

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/01/the ... l-stretch/
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Northern Raider »

Will 3 out of 5 be enough?
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by afgtnk »

It's probable I'd say. It all comes down to this week, really. Win this weekend, beat the Warriors, and jag one against the top 6.

Otherwise, jag two against the top 6. Bit of a stretch

Knights

Broncos
Sharks
Bulldogs
Titans
Broncos

Titans

Cowboys
Rabbitohs
Storm
Knights
Warriors

Sharks

Warriors
Knights
Tigers
Broncos
Storm

Dragons

Raiders
Panthers
Roosters
Cowboys
Rabbitohs

Sharks and the Knights have very soft runs, and the Knights are still behind us at the moment. If I was a betting man, and I'm not, I'd put money on us being done here.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Northern Raider »

Going to feel weird cheering for the Broncos on Thursday night.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Mickey_Raider »

A couple interesting games to watch over the next couple weeks.

Obviously we need to beat the Dragons.

But Broncos could do us a huge favour by upsetting Knights in Thursday.

Then Knights and Sharks will be taking points off each other the following Sunday.

Then Knights and Titans will be taking points off each other a fortnight later.

This one could fall many ways.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Hong Kong Raider »

We didn't help ourselves taking points off Knights. We could have knocked them out - that was a 4 point game. So we cannot expect Broncos minus Staggs to beat the Knights. In fact, we cannot expect to make the finals the way we played against the Knights.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

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Hong Kong Raider wrote: August 3, 2021, 12:34 pm We didn't help ourselves taking points off Knights. We could have knocked them out - that was a 4 point game. So we cannot expect Broncos minus Staggs to beat the Knights. In fact, we cannot expect to make the finals the way we played against the Knights.
Knights on the 4 day back up. They have put in plenty of shockers this season too. Win against the Broncos is no given.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Billy Walker »

It’s a fairly open 8 this year. Storm are obviously is cracking form, Panthers have been hit by injuries and are wobbly, South’s I’m not sold, Parra on the slide and the rest hot and cold. Scrape in and you could go deep into finals.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Hong Kong Raider »

Even if Broncos beat the Knights and the other sides take points off each other, there’s no guarantee we will beat the Dragons this weekend
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by Azza »

Forget it. We stink.
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Re: The Canberra Raiders' run home

Post by -PJ- »

We really do.
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