Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Sunday 5 June, 4:05pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 11:50am
Jersey Flegg: Canberra Raiders V Cronulla Sharks, 12:05pm
NSW Cup: Canberra Raiders V Newtown Jets, 1:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers increasing. Windy. Cloudy. Very high (90 per cent) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Gusty winds in the morning. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h. Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm Chance of any rain: 80 per cent Min 5 Max 12
The Raiders are again at home in Round 13 and face the Roosters in contest that will be devoid of the two teams' Origin stars.
Last round: 2022 Round 12. Parramatta Eels 28 - Canberra Raiders 20. It was a great game of football. Unfortunately, the Canberra Raiders are not in the class of the top teams, at least not yet. This is a rebuilding period. The Eels have been up and down, but they were "up" yesterday. They are a very dangerous attacking team and they showed how dangerous at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders were right in the match at half time, able to profit from the Eels' inability to defuse a couple of kicks and some inattention in goal line defence. But in the second half, the Raiders could not take advantage of a huge territorial and possession advantage. They could not score a single try. The Eels scored two. And when Eels five eighth Dylan Brown scored in the 65th minute, it was pretty much game over.
More on Round 12: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders are without prop Josh Papalii and five eighth Jack Wighton due to Origin. Corey Horsburgh replaces Papalii, while Matt Frawley will stand in for Wighton. Trey Mooney will make his NRL debut on the bench, while Corey Harawira-Naera has also been added to the interchange list. James Schiller drops to 18th man.
The Roosters have James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou and Lindsay Collins on State of Origin duty. Joseph Suaalii has been named on the Blues' reserves list, but will likely be available for the Roosters, subject to passing concussion protocols. He's been named on the wing by Roosters coach Trent Robinson. Joseph Manu moves to fullback, replacing Tedesco, while Billy Smith comes in on the wing for Daniel Tupou. Siosiua Taukeiaho shifts to prop, with Sitili Tupouniua comes into the second row. Egan Butcher has been added to the bench.
Late changes: Raiders forward Corey Harawira-Naera has been ruled out due to COVID protocols, with James Schiller coming in on the bench. Harry Rushton and Brad Schneider remain on the reserves list. Roosters prop Jared Harawira-Naera has been ruled out with a hamstring problem. Fletcher Baker comes in at starting prop, while Daniel Suluka-Fifita has been added to the bench.
History: The Raiders have won 30 of 68 matches against the Sydney Roosters. The Green Machine has been victorious in four of the past 10 games - and only two of the past eight.
The Roosters won all three games played between the clubs in 2019, including the Grand Final. In Round 10 of 2020, the Raiders won the Grand Final re-match, 24-20, in a courageous performance at the Sydney Cricket Ground. However, the Roosters got the win (18-6) in Round 17 as Canberra Stadium. In Week 2 of the 2020 finals, the Green Machine denied the Roosters the opportunity to win a third premiership in a row. They defeated the Sydney outfit, 22-18, at the Sydney Cricket Ground - getting some small measure of revenge for the 2019 decider.
The Raiders were thrashed by the Roosters in both contests last year. They lost 44-16 at Gosford in Round 12 - and followed up with a 40-16 defeat in the final round of the regular season at Mackay.
The Raiders have won 14 of 22 games played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium, but lost the last two, in 2019 and 2020.
2021 Round 25 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2021 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2020 Finals Week 2 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2020 Round 17 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
2020 Round 10 Canberra Raiders V Sydney Roosters
Form: Raiders: LLWWWL
Roosters: LWWLW
The Roosters are coming off a 36-16 win over the Cronulla Sharks at Shark Park on Saturday night. They suffered a shock loss to the Bulldogs (16-12) in Round 8 - and also lost to the Panthers (32-12) at the Sydney Cricket Ground two weeks ago. They have also recently produced a big win over the Titans (44-16), and finished in front of the Eels (31-24) in Magic Round.
Betting: The Roosters are $1.54 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.50. The Raiders have 5.5 points start in the line betting. The Roosters odds have shortened over the week.
Stat attack: This is a clash between sixth (Roosters) and tenth (Raiders) on the ladder. The Roosters are equal fifth in attack, while the Raiders are in the bottom four. The Roosters rank third for line breaks and fifth for running metres. Their half Luke Keary ranks equal fourth for try assists. Fullback James Tedesco ranks second for running metres and third for kick return metres. That's two reasons why the Roosters will miss Tedesco on Sunday.
The Sydney outfit has a better defensive record than the Raiders, but the difference there is not as pronounced. The Roosters have conceded 38 tries, the Raiders 42.
2022 Season record: Raiders 5 and 7 (10th, -41)
Roosters 7 and 5 (6th, +53)
Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on tries scored
Roosters 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked equal fifth on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked seventh on fewest tries conceded
Roosters 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal fifth on fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Roosters 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Roosters 74 per cent
Running: Raiders 1491 running metres per match
Roosters 1683 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Roosters 31 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Roosters 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Roosters 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 13, Roosters 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 488 kicking metres per match
Roosters 490 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Roosters 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1340 running metres conceded per match
Roosters 1340 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Roosters 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Roosters 6 per match
Key match-ups:
Nick Cotric and Joseph Suaalii: Nick Cotric had an unhappy season last year with the Bulldogs, and has had a slow start to 2022 since returning to the Raiders. But he's really lifted in the past month. He's got two tries, 41 tackle breaks, four line breaks and 111 running metres per game. Joseph Suaalii is an 18 year old with a huge reputation and 12 NRL appearances to his name. This year he's scored five tries and made five line breaks and 13 tackle breaks. He's also averaged 131 running metres. But his defensive numbers are not as strong as Cotric's. Overall, this match-up is close to a draw, but Suaalii's attacking numbers sure look good.
Jamal Fogarty and Luke Keary: Jamal Fogarty made his debut for the Raiders last week, after spending the first 11 rounds on the sidelines, recovering from a preseason knee injury. He showed some good signs, producing a try assist, 48 running metres and 260 kicking metres. He should be able to take some pressure off Jack Wighton for the kicking game. Luke Keary has struggled a little in taking over as the Roosters' dominant half. But he's still posted 11 try assists, six line break assists, nine line drop outs and an average of 62 running metres and 352 kicking metres per game. Still impressive. Keary takes this match-up in my view.
My tip: The Roosters are not the dominant team they used to be - and the numbers for the two teams in this clash are surprisingly close in some departments. But the Roosters are still a very strong club with great depth. That's why I suspect they will adjust better to the loss of Origin players than the Raiders. Taking Josh Papalii and Jack Wighton out of the Raiders leaves some huge holes. The other concern is the lack of points in the second half against the Eels. Second half fades have been a big problem all season - and we were hopeful they'd been addressed in the past month. But perhaps not. The head is telling me Roosters, by a narrow margin. As always, when tipping the opposition, I hope I'm wrong. Roosters by six or less.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart after the loss to the Eels: "While ever they're turning up with that type of effort we'll keep developing into the team we want to get to. We're certainly not intimidated by any team. If we can hold onto some combinations now and not have any more injuries, and keep Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty together, and keep the hookers playing the way they are. We've got Xavier Savage there at the back learning how to play 'one' and he did a wonderful job tonight I thought. He's going to develop into a very good young player. So if we keep those combinations and get some cohesion we'll naturally keep improving as a football team."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Matt Frawley
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Corey Horsburgh
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott
14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
17. Trey Mooney
18. James Schiller
19. Harry Rushton
21. Brad Schneider
Injury/Suspension
Corey Harawira-Naera, COVID protocols (TBA)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Hamstring (Rd 18-19)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Sydney Roosters
1. Joseph Manu
2. Billy Smith
3. Paul Momirovski
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Joseph Suaalii
6. Sam Walker
7. Luke Keary
10. Siosiua Taukeiaho
9. Drew Hutchison
15. Fletcher Baker
11. Angus Crichton
12. Sitili Tupouniua
13. Nat Butcher
14. Connor Watson
16. Egan Butcher
17. Terrell May
19. Daniel Suluka-Fifita
18. Lachlan Lam
21. Tom Carr
Injury/Suspension
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Hamsting (TBA)
Victor Radley, Ankle (Rd 19)
Renouf Atoni, Knee (Indefinite)
Sam Verrills, Collarbone (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Adam Gee
Touch judges: Drew Oultram, Kasey Badger
Video referee: Chris Butler
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NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here
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