2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
2
20%
Raiders 1-12
4
40%
Draw
1
10%
Dragons 1-12
1
10%
Dragons 13+
2
20%
 
Total votes: 10

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greeneyed
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2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunday 3 July, 4:05pm
Wollongong Stadium
Gates open: 2:15pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Rain. Windy. Possible heavy falls. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds southeasterly 35 to 55 km/h. Chance of any rain: 100 per cent Possible rainfall: 120 to 150 mm Min 14 Max 15

The Raiders head to Wollongong for a clash with the St George Illawarra Dragons in Round 16. With the Dragons sitting in eighth, just two competition points ahead of the Raiders, it is a critical match for the Green Machine's top eight chances.

Last round: Canberra Raiders 20 - Newcastle Knights 18. The Canberra Raiders had done almost everything possible to lose against the Newcastle Knights. A match in which they led 14-0 close to half time. With two minutes remaining, it looked like the Raiders would again fail to score a point in the second half - for the seventh time this year. Enter Hudson Young. With the Raiders trailing by four, he kicked ahead on the third tackle into a vacant in goal. He then steamed through the defensive line and grounded the ball himself. It was an audacious, stunning play from the second rower. The Fogarty conversion sealed the last gasp win for the Green Machine.



More on Round 15: As I saw it

Team news: Jack Wighton is back for the Raiders at five eighth, after missing the clash with the Knights and Origin II due to COVID. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns two weeks early from a hamstring injury. He's been named on the bench. The Raiders have only Josh Papalii backing up from Origin, and he played only 27 minutes in Origin II. He has been used in baffling fashion by Queensland coach Billy Slater. He played for only 17 minutes at the start of Origin II - and brought on at the death after the game was lost. But he should be fresh.

The Dragons have named an unchanged top 17 and the squad is almost at full strength. They are only missing Josh McGuire (groin). Ben Hunt suffered an ankle injury in Origin II but has been named at halfback.

Late changes: Neither team made changes to their top 17 on Saturday afternoon. The Raiders retained Matt Frawley and Trey Mooney on the extended bench. The Dragons retained Jaiyden Hunt and Jayden Sullivan in their squad of 19.

History: The Raiders have won 21 of 34 games against St George Illawarra, and drawn one. Between 2003 and 2013, the Raiders were the Dragons' "hoodoo" team, with Canberra losing just one of the 16 matches played. The Dragons broke the hoodoo with four wins in a row between 2014 and 2016. But the Raiders have now won four of the past five clashes. In Round 15 last year at Wollongong, the Raiders led the Dragons 20-8, early in the second half. They then suffered a horrible second half fade, ultimately losing, 22-20. In Round 21 on the Gold Coast, the two teams were tied at 12 apiece at half time. Raiders hooker Tom Starling scored the only try of the second half, inside the first five minutes. A Jarrod Croker penalty goal sealed the 20-12 victory for Canberra, with 10 minutes remaining.


2021 Round 21: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons


2021 Round 15: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons


2020 Round 18: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons


2020 Round 8: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons

The Raiders have won five of the 10 games played against St George Illawarra, and drawn one.

Form: Raiders: WLWLW
Dragons: LWWLW

The Dragons are coming off a 32-12 victory over the Rabbitohs - a match in which they scored six tries in the space of 22 minutes in the first half. They led 32-0 at the 30th minute and did not score again. They posted recent wins over the Bulldogs (34-24) and Warriors (24-18) - and losses to the Cowboys (31-12) and Titans (20-16).

Betting: The Raiders are $1.65 favourites, with the Dragons paying $2.25. The Dragons have 2.5 points start in the line betting. Canberra's odds have shortened slightly over the week.

Stat attack: This is a clash between eighth (Dragons) and 11th (Raiders) on the ladder. There is virtually a struck match between the attacking records of the two teams - on a per game basis. The Raiders have a slightly better defensive record.

While the Raiders have become more conservative in their attacking style over the season, they still rank poorly in terms of their error and completion rates. Only the Rabbitohs have a worse completion rate than Canberra. The Raiders are still in the top two teams for offloads - though they have become much more effective. The Green Machine is also in the top four for tackle breaks (Dragons rank 12th). However, only the Knights make fewer line breaks than the Raiders. The Dragons are in the middle of the pack in that department.

Canberra Raiders prop Joe Tapine ranks first in the NRL for post contact metres, fifth for runs and running metres and fifth for offloads. No player has made more decoy runs than Dragons prop Blake Lawrie. On the negative side of the ledger, no player has made more handling errors than Dragons centre Zac Lomax.

2022 Season record: Raiders 7 and 8 (11th, -39)
Dragons 7 and 7 (8th, -72)

Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on tries scored
Dragons 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on tries scored

Defence: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal sixth on fewest tries conceded
Dragons 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 11th on fewest tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Dragons 49 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Dragons 75 per cent

Running: Raiders 1528 running metres per match
Dragons 1421 running metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 32, Dragons 28 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 3, Dragons 4 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Dragons 3 per match

Offloads: Raiders 13, 8 per match

Kicking: Raiders 494 kicking metres per match
Dragons 498 kicking metres per match

Tackling: Raiders 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Dragons 85 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1353 running metres conceded per match
Dragons 1470 running metres conceded per match

Errors: Raiders 12, Dragons 11 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Dragons 5 per match

Key match-ups:

Xavier Savage and Cody Ramsey: Xavier Savage has retained the Raiders' No. 1 jersey, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad coming back from a hamstring injury on the bench. Savage has spent the last month at fullback while CNK was sidelined - and nine appearances this year in all. He's been improving markedly every week he's been in firsts. The 20 year old still has an error in him, and he is still developing his defensive game. But the strike he offers in attack means he needs to be brought through as quickly as possible. This season, he's got three tries, two try assists, four line breaks, 21 tackle breaks and an average of 131 running metres.

He's up against another young speedster this week, in Cody Ramsey. He's also spent the last month at fullback, having displaced Moses Mbye. In his seven games this year, he's produced two tries, two try assists, four line breaks, 24 tackle breaks and an average of 114 running metres. Ramsey, 22, has 28 NRL appearances. Raiders fans will remember him scoring two tries in his NRL debut in 2020 at Wollongong. The Raiders won that game 37-8, but the only thing the media was interested in that day was Ramsey. Ramsey is a little further on with his development, and his defence is probably a bit better than Savage. But based on this year's numbers overall, I'll call this match-up a draw.

Jamal Fogarty and Ben Hunt: Jamal Fogarty now has a month of footy in green behind him, after the Canberra recruit spent the first half of 2022 on the sidelines with a knee injury. He's not only been shaking off some cobwebs, but is also still settling into a new club. He's been solid, with three try assists, four forced line drop outs, 64 average running metres and 253 average kicking metres to his name.

His opponent this week, Ben Hunt, is under some doubt, after injuring his ankle while playing for Queensland in Origin II. He's got three tries, four forced line drop outs, 101 average running metres and 415 average kicking metres in 14 appearances this year for the Dragons. He's also kicked three 40/20s. No player in the NRL engages the line than Ben Hunt. He's third in the NRL for try assists and fifth for kick metres. He's also second in the NRL for missed tackles. But when he's playing well, the Dragons are playing well, so the Raiders will need to make sure they contain him and cut his decision making time. There's not a lot of difference in the numbers for these two players on a per game basis - but Hunt wins this match-up for mine.

Hudson Young and Jayden Su'A: Since being dropped to NSW Cup earlier this year, Raiders second rower Hudson Young has been in the best form of his senior career. He's posted five tries, five line breaks, a line break assist, 14 offloads, 106 running metres per game and and 32 tackles per game. There are those who say he's a better middle, than an edge, forward. But he's the best second rower at the club right now, by a big margin. Jayden Su'A is at his third NRL club, having previously played four seasons with the Broncos and three with the Rabbitohs. In eight games with the Dragons this year, he's scored four tries and produced three line breaks and seven offloads. He's also averaged 114 running metres and 19 tackles per game. This match up is a clear win for Hudson.

My tip: Most of the numbers suggest that there's not a lot of difference between these two teams. But even though the Raiders are lower on the ladder the Dragons, Canberra probably deserves to be the slight favourite. Both teams can be inconsistent, and you can't be sure that either team will turn up with their their heads switched on. But if the Raiders play to their potential - and play for more than 40 minutes - they should beat the Dragons. Hopefully, the nature of their last gasp win over the Knights has given them a confidence boost. And the knowledge they can overcome this year's second half woes. Both teams will know how critical it is that they win this game for their top eight hopes. I can't say I'm tipping with any degree of confidence, but I'll go with the Green Machine. Raiders by six.

What they're saying:

Ricky Stuart on Joe Tapine: "The change in Joe Tapine is the reaction and change of speed in his game. I know our defence coaches have been working tirelessly on that with him on that, over the last three or four years. I think he's got the ability to lead New Zealand at some stage of his career. He's growing in regards to his leadership and the standards he's setting for himself. I'm really excited for him the way he's playing."

Canberra Raiders

1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott

14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
17. Corey Horsburgh

18. Matt Frawley
20. Trey Mooney

Injury/Suspension

James Schiller, Shoulder (Rd 18-19)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)

St George Illawarra Dragons

1. Cody Ramsey
2. Mathew Feagai
3. Moses Suli
4. Zac Lomax
5. Mikaele Ravalawa
6. Talatau Amone
7. Ben Hunt
8. Jack de Belin
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Blake Lawrie
11. Jack Bird
12. Jaydn Su'A
13. Tariq Sims

14. Moses Mbye
15. Francis Molo
16. Aaron Woods
17. Michael Molo

21. Jaiyden Hunt
20. Jayden Sullivan

Injury/Suspension

Josh McGuire, Groin (Indefinite)

Officials

Referee: Peter Gough
Touch judges: Jon Stone, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video referee: Grant Atkins

NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here

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Billy Walker
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Game day - May nobody drown! Could be a memorable one I think. Like the snow game this will be flood game if it happens.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by daley6 »

Could this game be postponed??Anyone know the rules??
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

daley6 wrote: July 3, 2022, 8:18 am Could this game be postponed??Anyone know the rules??
They certainly postponed some games last year so I think they can, if needed.

Most outdoor sports have some kind of agreement about conditions being deemed unsafe/unplayable. It's just how they interpret from a scale of cricket- stops for drizzle- to soccer or league where they generally press on through snow or puddles.

Anyone in wollongong got an idea of whether it's just very wet or completely underwater?
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Fairly large parts of western Sydney have evacuation orders. It’s supposed to be worse on the coast and Wollongong was predicted to cop a fair dousing. I’d certainly throw in a brolly I reckon!
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by sms316 »

It’s been filthy in the Gong the last day or so but the radar is giving me some hope. I’ve got a seat in the Raiders area and intend on going if the bad stuff keeps pushing west.

BTW - this is Wollongong Golf Club this morning which is next door.

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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by sms316 »

And it’s pissing down again….
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by daley6 »

Wow if the grounds like that
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

sms316 wrote: July 3, 2022, 9:14 am And it’s pissing down again….
Thanks for the local updates though :thumbsup
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Off »

Just give em the 2, stay in bed it's gunna happen anyway,

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Last edited by Off on July 3, 2022, 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
This place is woke.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

Even I as Savage's biggest fan am a bit concerned as to how he will handle this wet 😂😬
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

Canberra Milk wrote: July 3, 2022, 9:19 am Even I as Savage's biggest fan am a bit concerned as to how he will handle this wet 😂😬
I predict 3 lose carries and 2 shocking tackle attempts leading to tries
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Look forward to us screwing this up

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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Thomas Raider »

It's been horrible weather last 2 days here in Wollongong,good luck to those going to the game. You're gunna need it :D
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

Dragons 13+. Put money on it.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

Game day!! Go the Raiders!!!
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Finchy wrote:Dragons 13+. Put money on it.
How munch

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2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by gangrenous »

Finchy wrote:Dragons 13+. Put money on it.
Risky bet in this weather. Going to be a game of water polo at this rate.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

Azza wrote: July 3, 2022, 10:10 am
Finchy wrote:Dragons 13+. Put money on it.
How munch

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$50
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by sms316 »

Updated... patron information

Due to the significant rainfall experienced across the past 48hrs, and further rainfall forecasted across the day; the decision has been made to cancel the Knock-On Effect NSW Cup preliminary fixture schedule ahead of todays feature NRL fixture.

The NRL Telstra Premiership fixture between St. George Illawarra Dragons vs. Canberra Raiders will be proceeding as scheduled (Kick off at 4:05pm).

The Score Dragons v Score Raiders match has also been cancelled. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Go the Raiders...Should be an easy win
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Hudson Young 10 minutes in the bin before halftime for an attempted drowning of Jack de V
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

sms316 wrote: July 3, 2022, 10:26 am Updated... patron information

Due to the significant rainfall experienced across the past 48hrs, and further rainfall forecasted across the day; the decision has been made to cancel the Knock-On Effect NSW Cup preliminary fixture schedule ahead of todays feature NRL fixture.

The NRL Telstra Premiership fixture between St. George Illawarra Dragons vs. Canberra Raiders will be proceeding as scheduled (Kick off at 4:05pm).

The Score Dragons v Score Raiders match has also been cancelled. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

I guess that's why Michael Asomua is at Hoyts Belconnen watching Minions this morning.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Can we go back to our man sms316 for a live weather update….. how we looking?
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

They are talking about the possibility of up to half a meter of rain in some places around Sydney and Wollongong. That is hard to fathom. I still reckon it’s 50/50 whether we get a kick off today or end up with a Tuesday night match or something.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Brew »

Dragons said on their social media that the game will
Go ahead.

Only reserve grade is postponed


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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Last time we played in a deluge I remember Rapana at FB making about 5 errors and still being man of the match somehow (and I don't mean he didn't deserve it, just what a brilliant lunatic he was).

So fullbacks will drop it in the wet, whether it's CNK or Savage. Be a great game to learn in.

Kicking game is obviously huge in the wet. Ben Hunt is a really good kicking game usually, up in the top bracket. We'll need to hope Wighton has his boots on the right feet and that Fog continues with his good short kicking game to get on top.

Might be so wet that kicks hold up in goal too- get kicks in behind Ravalawa could be a plan. He's not the most agile turning winger.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Thomas Raider »

Billy Walker wrote: July 3, 2022, 11:22 am They are talking about the possibility of up to half a meter of rain in some places around Sydney and Wollongong. That is hard to fathom. I still reckon it’s 50/50 whether we get a kick off today or end up with a Tuesday night match or something.
Blowing a gale at the moment Billy Dubya,with intermittent heavy showers :(
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Brew wrote: July 3, 2022, 11:49 am Dragons said on their social media that the game will
Go ahead.

Only reserve grade is postponed


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Still a few hours to kick off though Brew. If this Biblical rain event hits hard in the next couple of hours - who knows. I suspect it will go ahead and I hope so - should be interesting conditions and the smartest team will win.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Billy Walker wrote: July 3, 2022, 12:40 pm
Brew wrote: July 3, 2022, 11:49 am Dragons said on their social media that the game will
Go ahead.

Only reserve grade is postponed


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Still a few hours to kick off though Brew. If this Biblical rain event hits hard in the next couple of hours - who knows. I suspect it will go ahead and I hope so - should be interesting conditions and the smartest team will win.
When have we ever been the smartest team?

When Whitehead and Hodgson arrived it was like the skies had parted and we saw the sun for the first time, simply because we actually had 2 players who understood rugby league. Now we are down to one brain again and it is carried around in an ageing body.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

Billy Walker wrote: July 3, 2022, 12:40 pm
Brew wrote: July 3, 2022, 11:49 am Dragons said on their social media that the game will
Go ahead.

Only reserve grade is postponed


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Still a few hours to kick off though Brew. If this Biblical rain event hits hard in the next couple of hours - who knows. I suspect it will go ahead and I hope so - should be interesting conditions and the smartest team will win.
Doesn’t bode well for us then. We may be a lot of things, but smart isn’t one of them
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

What sort of press conference are we expecting from the coach if the game does go ahead?
I have 17 boys in there who are…..
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by gangrenous »

a little damp
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by gangrenous »

Should get penalty rates for playing in this weather! Would be miserable.
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Re: 2022 Rd 16 V Dragons: Game Day

Post by bonehead »

Ilanraiders wrote:What sort of press conference are we expecting from the coach if the game does go ahead?
I have 17 boys in there who are…..
very wet and cold

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