2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
0
No votes
Raiders 1-12
4
36%
Draw
0
No votes
Storm 1-12
1
9%
Storm 13+
6
55%
 
Total votes: 11

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greeneyed
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2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Sunday 17 July, 4:05pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Jersey Flegg: Canberra Raiders V Victoria Thunderbolts, 1:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers. Wind easing. Cloudy. Windy. Very high (95 per cent) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, with gusty winds and possible small hail. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h turning westerly in the middle of the day. Chance of any rain: 95 per cent Possible rainfall: 6 to 10 mm Min 9 Max 15

After a week off for the bye, the Raiders head to Melbourne for a clash with the Storm in Round 18. It is exactly the wrong time to be meeting the Storm, with Melbourne having recorded back to back losses to the Sea Eagles and Sharks. Melbourne hasn't lost three games in a row since 2015 - when they lost four games straight from Round 14 to Round 18.

Last round: 2022 Round 16. St George Illawarra Dragons 12 - Canberra Raiders 10. This was a match the Raiders put themselves in a position to win, but somehow again found a way to lose. It ended in refereeing controversy, with the NRL later admitting later that the Raiders should have been given a penalty in front in the dying seconds. They were denied the opportunity to force golden point. But the responsibility for the loss lay primarily with the team, not the officials. They Raiders produced errors at key points in the game - and failed to execute the strategy needed to win in the atrocious conditions.



More on Round 16: As I saw it

Team news: The Raiders will have prop Josh Papalii backing up after playing 33 minutes in Queensland's Origin win on Wednesday night. Corey Horsburgh will probably start at prop, with Papalii coming off the bench. Jack Wighton, 18th man for New South Wales, did not take the field on Wednesday, so he will be fresh. James Schiller returns to the interchange bench this week, in place of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. The top 17 is otherwise unchanged. Captain Elliott Whitehead (knee infection) and Nick Cotric (leg) are in doubt, but Ricky Stuart says both will be fit. Corey Harawira-Naera and Schiller will likely be called on, if needed.

Hooker Harry Grant is the only Storm player backing up from Origin III, with Cameron Munster ruled out of the Queensland team due to COVID. Munster should be right for Sunday. Kenny Bromwich (leg) and Felise Kaufusi (personal leave) will return. Hooker Brandon Smith has been suspended for three weeks, after calling the referee a cheat in the Sharks clash.

Late changes: Elliott Whitehead (knee), Nick Cotric (leg) and Corey Horsburgh were all ruled out of the Raiders' team on Saturday. Adam Elliott and James Schiller have moved into the starting team. Albert Hopoate will make his first grade debut for Canberra on the bench, while Corey Harawira-Naera and Emre Guler have also been added to the bench. The Storm's top 17 was left unchanged.

History: The Raiders have won only 14 of 50 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a meagre 28 per cent win rate. The Raiders broke a five game losing streak against Melbourne with a memorable 22-18 victory in Bleak City in Round 22 in 2019. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points. It was the Storm's worst ever collapse. Canberra followed up with another stunning, 12-10, victory in Week 1 of the 2019 finals - with a John Bateman try in the final stages delivering a match winning lead. They produced their third straight win against Melbourne in Round 3 of 2020. But things have gone downhill since then. The Storm has won the past five games in a row against the Raiders, including the 2020 Preliminary Final.


2022 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2021 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2021 Round 11 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm

The Raiders have won six of the 11 games played between the clubs at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, including the last three.

Form: Raiders: LWLWL
Storm: WWWLL

The Storm has produced recent wins against the Sea Eagles (28-8), Roosters (26-18) and Bronos (32-20). But they've now lost two weeks in a row. They fell to the Sea Eagles (36-30) at Brookvale in Round 16, despite making a late comeback. They scored four tries in the final six minutes. Then last Thursday night, the Sharks beat the Storm 28-6, with Melbourne scoring just one consolation try in the final three minutes.

The Raiders have been very inconsistent, though their losses have not been by large margins. They have recently lost to the Eels by eight, the Broncos by six and the Dragons by two. But the victories have also been by narrow margins - by six over the Roosters and by two over the Knights. The biggest problem has been inconsistent performance within matches - with poor second halves a continuing issue.

Betting: The Raiders are $3.50 long shots, with the Storm paying $1.31. The Raiders have 9.5 points start in the line betting.

Stat attack: This is a clash between third (Storm) and 11th (Raiders) on the ladder. The Storm has scored more tries than any team in the competition, while the Raiders rank 11th in that department. They are also second for line breaks (Raiders equal last) and try assists (Raiders 12th) - and fourth for line break assists (Raiders 12th). Both teams love to run from dummy half, with the Storm ranking first, the Raiders third, on that score.

The Raiders have produced more handling errors than any team in the competition (Storm 14th), while the Storm completes at 80 per cent (Raiders 74 per cent). The Storm has conceded more penalties than any team, while the Raiders rank fourth.

Defence is the area where the numbers for the two teams are not so different. That primarily reflects the fact that the Storm is conceding more points this year.

Melbourne fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (14) is second only to Rabbitohs back Alex Johnston for most tries scored this year. Now he's back from injury, he'll be a key player to watch for the Raiders' defenders. Canberra's top try scorers are Hudson Young, Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko - all with six each. Raiders prop Joe Tapine ranks first in the NRL for post contact metres and fourth for running metres.

2022 Season record: Raiders 7 and 9 (11th, -41)
Storm 11 and 5 (3rd, +181)

Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on tries scored
Storm 29 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked first on tries scored

Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked sixth for fewest tries conceded
Storm 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked fourth for fewest tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Storm 51 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Storm 80 per cent

Running: Raiders 1426 running metres per match
Storm 1499 running metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Storm 31 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 3, Storm 5 per match

Try assists: Raiders 2, Storm 4 per match

Offloads: Raiders 12, Storm 10 per match

Kicking: Raiders 472 kicking metres per match
Storm 489 kicking metres per match

Tackling: Raiders 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Storm 87 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1344 running metres conceded per match
Storm 1254 running metres conceded per match

Errors: Raiders 11, Storm 9 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Storm 7 per match

Key match-ups:

Xavier Savage and Ryan Papenhuyzen: Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has stuck with Xavier Savage at fullback, with the Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to play NSW Cup this week. Nicoll-Klokstad is still returning to full fitness after a serious hamstring injury. Savage has speed and huge potential, but only 13 NRL appearances to date. He's still learning his craft and has an error in him, but I won't be surprised if Savage retains the No. 1 jersey for the rest of the year, with CNK heading to the Warriors in 2023. In 10 games, Savage has four tries, two try assists, five line breaks, 23 tackle breaks and an average 133 running metres to his name. Ryan Papenhuyzen was in outstanding form in the opening two months of the season, before being injured in the Round 9 clash with the Dragons. He returned two weeks ago and is getting back into the groove. In 2022 he has scored 14 tries and produced nine try assists, 11 line breaks, 35 tackle breaks and an average 124 running metres gained. Papenhuyzen wins this match-up for mine, clearly. He'll be tough to contain.

Jack Wighton and Cameron Munster: Five eighth Jack Wighton has been in good form so far this year. But he had a shocker in the loss to the Dragons. He produced a try assist, two line break assists and two forced line drop outs. But he also made six errors. In his 12 appearances this year, he's posted three tries, six try assists, nine line break assists, forced nine line drop outs and run an average of 88 metres. His opponent this week, Cameron Munster, is also a strong runner. He's averaged 129 running metres per game in 2022 - and has seven tries 12 try assists, nine line break assists and four forced line drop outs. Munster edges Wighton on the numbers in this match-up.

Joe Tapine and Jesse Bromwich: If Joe Tapine is not the best prop in the NRL right now, he'd be awfully close. He's averaged 162 running metres per game, running over 200 metres five times. He's the king of post contact metres. He's scored one try and posted 40 tackle breaks, 27 offloads and a 96 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Defences have a lot of trouble just getting him to ground, and he is producing quick play the balls. Jesse Bromwich's numbers aren't close. He's also scored one try. But he has produced just 11 tackle breaks, 15 offloads and 89 average running metres as well. Tapine the clear winner of this match up.

My tip: The Storm are justifiably hot favourites in this match. Almost all the numbers indicate a big Melbourne victory. But the Storm has been disrupted by injury, and their recent form has been very un-Melbourne like. So, I'm saying there's a chance for the Green Machine. An awful lot will have to go right for Canberra. They'll need to play for 80 minutes for a start. Am I saying it's likely? No. But I'm hoping they can come away with a famous win. The head tells me... Storm by 12.

What they're saying:

A departing Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on Xavier Savage: "There's still a lot of development in his game, which is a scary thing for the other teams as well - because he's got so much talent already and to think that he's still got a lot of development to do it's a good thing for him. Once he gets a bit of that development under his belt he's going to be a really top-ended fullback."

Canberra Raiders

1. Xavier Savage
5. Jordan Rapana
3. Matt Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
15. James Schiller
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
16. Adam Elliott
13. Ryan Sutton

14. Tom Starling
20. Corey Harawira-Naera
21. Emre Guler
22. Albert Hopoate

18. Brad Schneider
19. Ata Mariota

Injury/Suspension

Elliott Whitehead, Knee (TBA)
Nick Cotric, Leg (TBA)
Corey Horsburgh (TBA)
Semi Valemei, Knee (Rd 19-20)
Harry Rushton, Fractured jaw (Rd 25)
Trey Mooney, Ankle (Indefinite)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Nick Meaney
3. Marion Seve
4. Justin Olam
5. Dean Ieremia
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Harry Grant
10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenny Bromwich
13. Josh King

14. Tyran Wishart
15. Tui Kamikamica
16. Alec MacDonald
17. Jordan Grant

19. Chris Lewis
21. Young Tonumaipea

Injury/Suspension

Brandon Smith, Suspended (Rd 21)
Xavier Coates, Ankle (Rd 24)
Trent Loiero, Back (Indefinite)
Grant Anderson, Arm (Indefinite)
Christian Welch, Achilles (Season)
George Jennings, Knee (Season)
Reimis Smith, Pectoral (Season)

Officials

Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Phil Henderson, Drew Oultram
Video referee: Grant Atkins

NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLStormRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2022 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
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Kryptonite
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite »

Would anyone be surprised if we get up for this one in Melbourne and the Storm lose 3 on the trot for the first time since they were caught with 2 sets of books?
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Botman
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Botman »

Yeah. Me.
I'd be pretty **** surprised.
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Azza
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Kryptonite wrote:Would anyone be surprised if we get up for this one in Melbourne and the Storm lose 3 on the trot for the first time since they were caught with 2 sets of books?
Yes.

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Billy Walker
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Kryptonite wrote: July 11, 2022, 1:43 pm Would anyone be surprised if we get up for this one in Melbourne and the Storm lose 3 on the trot for the first time since they were caught with 2 sets of books?
Nah we got this easy I reckon
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InFernos_Raiders
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by InFernos_Raiders »

One change please.
James Schiller out
Corey Harawira-Naera in
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BJ
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BJ »

Anyone hearing Cotric has a leg strain?
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

BJ wrote: July 14, 2022, 3:53 pm Anyone hearing Cotric has a leg strain?
Yeah, I just read about it then.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by thevikingclap on ig »

Whitehead also in doubt with a knee infection.
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BJ
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BJ »

The Nickman wrote:
BJ wrote: July 14, 2022, 3:53 pm Anyone hearing Cotric has a leg strain?
Yeah, I just read about it then.
Anyone know what the deal is?
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bonehead
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by bonehead »

BJ wrote:
The Nickman wrote:
BJ wrote: July 14, 2022, 3:53 pm Anyone hearing Cotric has a leg strain?
Yeah, I just read about it then.
Anyone know what the deal is?
yeah cotric could have a leg strain

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greeneyed
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

bonehead wrote: July 14, 2022, 5:36 pm
BJ wrote:
The Nickman wrote:
BJ wrote: July 14, 2022, 3:53 pm Anyone hearing Cotric has a leg strain?
Yeah, I just read about it then.
Anyone know what the deal is?
yeah cotric could have a leg strain

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And if he can't play will be replaced by Schiller. And if Whitehead is ruled out, he will be replaced by CHN.
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Off
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Off »

So this **** is the free to air game again

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This place is woke.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

I’m so glad this game is Sunday afternoon and doesn’t interfere with my Saturday in the slightest
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by bonehead »

The Nickman wrote:I’m so glad this game is Sunday afternoon and doesn’t interfere with my Saturday in the slightest
I'm so glad I'll be sitting out tinkering with the weber and just watching bits on my phone

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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

bonehead wrote: July 16, 2022, 8:07 am
The Nickman wrote:I’m so glad this game is Sunday afternoon and doesn’t interfere with my Saturday in the slightest
I'm so glad I'll be sitting out tinkering with the weber and just watching bits on my phone

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Just to confirm do you mean you’ll be watching the game or surfing sites Boner?
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gangrenous
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by gangrenous »

“The Weber” isn’t his BBQ if that helps.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by raiderskater »

Cotric, Whitehead, Horse out

Hopoate, CHN, Guler in

This is either going to be one of those classic silly Raiders ambushes where we just surprise them

or we're gonna die

and there's not much in between
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Makaveli »

Storm have been pretty **** last few weeks

Trust we'll play them back into form

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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by RedRaider »

What a season of injury this has been for the Raiders. It began in the preseason with Hodgo, HSS and Fog and has compounded like all Clubs as the season has moved on.

It is vital to start the season well.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Game day - all you doom and groomers will eat your words when we roll them later today. Mark my words!
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by daley6 »

No way they run out like this today, worst bench ever, when is ata mariota getting a run he in front of guler surely
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by daley6 »

Whos the 2nd prop on the bench?? Surely elliot and chn will swap before kickoff
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Azza
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

ID say this was going to be embarrassing, but I reckon we're all used to it by now.

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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

bonehead wrote: July 16, 2022, 8:07 am
The Nickman wrote:I’m so glad this game is Sunday afternoon and doesn’t interfere with my Saturday in the slightest
I'm so glad I'll be sitting out tinkering with the weber and just watching bits on my phone

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Barbecuing alone hey Boney?
Ata Mariota’s #1 fan. Bless his cotton socks.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Storm are playing terrible. ..Raiders by 12
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Finchy »

Raiders666 wrote: July 17, 2022, 10:00 am Storm are playing terrible. ..Raiders by 12
So are the Roosters, who aren’t even in the top 8. They have a thousand injuries, and just put 54 points on the Dragons. We couldn’t score 10 against them.

We don’t have the ability to score points even when we are playing well. The Storm have been bad the last few weeks, and have a few good players out. So chalk us up for a big loss.

Papenhuyzen to score 4.
Ata Mariota’s #1 fan. Bless his cotton socks.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

Finchy wrote: July 17, 2022, 10:05 am
Raiders666 wrote: July 17, 2022, 10:00 am Storm are playing terrible. ..Raiders by 12
So are the Roosters, who aren’t even in the top 8. They have a thousand injuries, and just put 54 points on the Dragons. We couldn’t score 10 against them.

We don’t have the ability to score points even when we are playing well. The Storm have been bad the last few weeks, and have a few good players out. So chalk us up for a big loss.

Papenhuyzen to score 4.
Our defence has been solid though. I think a 26-12 type loss might be on the cards, similar to last time
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Crusader »

Im just gonna throw it out there

1. Whitehead out is a loss but it is an chance for that hungry player to step in

2. We dont see much of Schiller but he takes solid hitups, cotric hasnt been cotric for a while so this is schillers make it or break it game

3. Papa backs up, its clear his fitness isnt up to scratch but he needs to be subbed at the right time

4. CHN, we are missing that flare he has and need it today

5. We can frustrate melbourne and win this game, its a big ask but it can be done

Will be competitive for us to win or a thrashing we lose, we need that sharks game mentality for this one
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Crash Ball »

I would've like to see Mariota get the nod over Guler but I guess experience counts against a team like the Storm.

Hopefully Hoppa actually gets on the park, he looks like he has stepped up a gear compared to his previous first grade stint.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Guler ?

I thought he’d left the country.
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

-PJ- wrote: July 17, 2022, 11:46 am Guler ?

I thought he’d left the country.
Put in a couple of pretty huge stints for reggies the last couple of weeks actually. Playing 70-75 mins a game.
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Azza
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Storm by the length of questions bum hair

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Seiffert82
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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Seiffert82 »

Good chance for Guler to prove something.

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Re: 2022 Rd 18 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Fortunately I’ll be preoccupied at the Leeds v Villa game and don’t need to worry about Storm ending our season today.
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