Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors
Friday 21 July, 6:00pm (8:00pm local)
Mt Smart Stadium
Gates open: 3:15pm (5:15pm local)
NSW Cup: Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors: 3:30pm (5:30pm local)
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502, Kayo
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Rain. Periods of rain, persistent in the morning with heavy falls and possible downpours, easing in the evening. Southeasterlies, strong at times, gusting 90 km/h in exposed places before dawn. Min 8 Max 15
In Round 21, the Raiders head to Auckland for the first time since 2019 - hoping for some revenge for spoiling the 300 game milestone for captain Jarrod Croker.
Last round: 2023 Round 19. Canberra Raiders 36 - St George Illawarra Dragons 26. It seems to happen very single week. The Canberra Raiders let the opposition back into the game. The Raiders led 24-6 at half time against the Dragons. But they went on to lose the second half 20-12. It's the seventh time in a row that the Raiders have "lost the second half". Coach Ricky Stuart made it clear after the match he was tired of that happening. Very tired.
More on Round 19: As I saw it
Team news: Josh Papalii (hamstring) returns at starting prop for the Raiders. Pasami Saulo (concussion) made a comeback last Sunday in NSW Cup, and has Ben added to the bench. Corey Horsbugh also returns from Origin duties. Ata Mariota drops to the interchange, while Matt Frawley, Peter Hola and Trey Mooney drop out of the top 17.
For the Warriors, Marata Niukore (suspension) and Bunty Afoa (concussion) return, with Mitch Barnett and Tom Ale dropping to the bench. Josh Curran and Bayley Sironen are out.
Late changes: The Raiders made no changes to their top 17 on Thursday evening. Matt Frawley and Nick Cotric have been retained on the extended bench. The Warriors brought Bayley Sironen and Josh Curran in on the bench. Tom Ale has been omitted, with Freddy Lussick dropped to the reserves list.
History: The Raiders have won 26 of 49 games played against the Warriors. The Green Machine has taken out five of the past 10 matches between the clubs - and two of the past five. 2023 has seen a resurgence in the form of the Warriors. But that's hardly a dominant recent record for Canberra - against a team that has only scraped into the finals once in the past decade.
In Round 3 of 2021, the Raiders led 25-6 at home at half time, before the Warriors staged a comeback to win by three points, 34-31. The NRL later admitted that a Warriors try in the 59th minute to Ben Murdoch-Masila should have been disallowed, due to a forward pass from Kodi Nikorima. The Raiders got some late season revenge, and kept their finals hopes alive, with a 28-16 win over the Warriors in Mackay.
In Round 8 of 2022, it was another controversial defeat for Canberra - with Matt Lodge milking a penalty which allowed the Warriors to force golden point. Given Corey Horsburgh's high contact on Lodge was not a genuinely reportable offence, the bunker should not have intervened. But they did. The last minute penalty goal saw the Warriors draw level, 20-20, before Shaun Johnson kicked the winning field goal in golden point time. The Green Machine followed up with a 26-14 win over the New Zealand outfit in Round 19 at Canberra Stadium - a much needed victory in a late season charge to the finals.
Just six weeks ago, the Warriors produced a big, 36-16, win in the 300th NRL match of Raiders captain Jarrod Croker. It was a very disappointing performance from Canberra, with five tries conceded in the second half.
Auckland has not been a happy hunting ground for the Raiders. They have won only eight from 20 games at Mt Smart Stadium - and eight from 21 in Auckland. They've won 10 from 23 in New Zealand.
2023 Round 15 - Warriors 36 defeated Raiders 14
2022 Round 19 - Raiders 26 defeated Warriors 14
2022 Round 8 - Warriors 21 defeated Raiders 20
2021 Round 24 - Raiders 28 defeated Warriors 16
2021 Round 3 - Warriors 34 defeated Raiders 31
Form: Raiders: WLWWW
Warriors: WWLWW
The Warriors are coming off a huge, 44-12 win over the Sharks - a team that has been in the top four for much of the past few months. They have lost just once in their past five games - a 28-6 defeat at the hands of the Rabbitohs in Auckland. They have other recent wins over the Raiders (36-14), Dragons (48-18) and Eels (46-10).
The Raiders have won 10 of their past 12 matches. But the two losses - to the Sea Eagles (42-14) and Warriors (36-14) - have been big ones.
Betting: The Warriors are $1.41 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.93. The Raiders have 7.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have lengthened slightly over the week.
Stat attack: A battle between fourth and fifth. But the other statistics for these two teams would have any Raiders fan worried. Look at the points differential for the two teams, for a start.
The Raiders have spent much of the season among the bottom four teams for tries scored per game. They are presently running 13th in that department. They rely on their forwards creating second phase play (10 offloads per game, ranked fourth) and on dummy half running (10 per game, ranked sixth). They rank fifth for one pass hit ups, and last for general play passes. A lot of their tries are coming from kicks. Only the Bulldogs have made fewer line breaks per game than the Raiders. No team has made fewer tackle breaks per game than the Raiders - though their post contact metres are middle of the pack. On the plus side, Jamal Fogarty's kicking has become a real weapon.
The Warriors also rely on a power game in the forwards - but they have more than that in the arsenal. They like a one pass hit up (ranked third), but they throw the ball around more (ninth for general play passes). They rank third for line breaks per game (six, compared with four for the Raiders). In their past six games, they have scored 30 or more points five times, and 40 or more three times. They now rank sixth for most tries per game.
The Raiders' left edge defence was a real problem in their last outing. They better beware on Friday night. The Warriors score 45 per cent of their tries on their right edge - and only 25 per cent on the left. Both teams don't mind going down the middle. The Raiders score 36 per cent of their tries in the middle third, the Warriors 30 per cent.
If you thought all that was a bit scary, the Warriors' defence has been even better. They rank third for the fewest tries conceded per game (Raiders 13th). They are top four for fewest running metres conceded (Raiders sixth) and fewest line breaks conceded (Raiders ninth). Neither team miss a lot of tackles or make a lot of ineffective tackles. The trouble is, the Warriors are stopping the tries, the Raiders are not (due to kicks or simply not being in the position to make a tackle).
Warriors players to watch? Shaun Johnson, Shaun Johnson and Shaun Johnson. But don't forget five eighth Luke Metcalf, hooker Wayde Egan and fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. All the play makers. Johnson ranks third in the NRL for try assists and first for all kicks, attacking kicks and kick metres. Prop Addin Fonua-Blake and former Raider Nicoll-Klokstad are in the top four players for most run metres. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (15) is equal fifth for most tries.
Stats leaders for Canberra? Joe Tapine ranks fourth for most post contact metres (Fonua-Blake runs first), while Hudson Young is equal fifth for most offloads (30). Fullback Seb Kris ranks fourth for kick return metres.
2023 Season record: Raiders 11 and 6 (4th, -55)
Warriors 11 and 7 (5th, +110)
Attack: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on average tries scored
Warriors 24 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 6th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 25 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 13th for fewest average tries conceded
Warriors 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd for fewest average tries conceded.
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Warriors 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Warriors 79 per cent
Running: Raiders 1595 running metres per match
Warriors 1681 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Warriors 33 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Warriors 6 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Warriors 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 10, Warriors 7 per match
Kicking: Raiders 596 kicking metres per match
Warriors 586 kicking metres per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 33, Warriors 32 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 15, Warriors 14 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Warriors 88 per cent
Errors: Raiders 10, Warriors 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Warriors 6 per match
My tip: The Warriors are in seriously good form and deserved favourites in this match. I'd like to think the Raiders could get some revenge for the #Croker300 defeat. One positive thing is that the Raiders have a good away record (6-3), while the Warriors are 5 and 4 at home. But overall, the numbers don't look good. I'm sorry to say it, but I'm tipping the Warriors by 8+. I hope I'm seriously wrong.
Canberra Raiders
1. Sebastian Kris
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Jarrod Croker (c)
4. Matt Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Ata Mariota
18. Matt Frawley
19. Nick Cotric
Injury/Suspension
James Schiller, Quad (Round 22)
Xavier Savage, Hamstring ((Round 26)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Indefinite)
Elijah Anderson, Patella tendon (Season)
Jordan Martin, ACL (Season)
Danny Levi, Jaw (Likely season)
New Zealand Warriors
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Rocco Berry
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Luke Metcalf
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Bunty Afoa
11. Jackson Ford
12. Marata Niukore
13. Tohu Harris
14. Dylan Walker
15. Mitchell Barnett
18. Bayley Sironen
20. Josh Curran
17. Freddy Lussick
22. Taine Tuaupiki
Injury/Suspension
Edward Kosi, Knee (Round 26)
Ali Leiataua, Hamstring (Indefinite)
Te Maire Martin, Leg (Indefinite)
Jazz Tevaga, Calf (Indefinite)
Valingi Kepu, Foot (Season)
Officials
Referee: Todd Smith
Touch judges: Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, Drew Oultram
Video referee: Matt Noyen
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLWarriorsRaiders
NRL teams: Click here
NRLW teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
