2024 Round 5 v Eels: Teams and Previews *Teams p1*

[The Nickman]

Both my predictions wrong

Mooney done at the club now surely. It's actually getting a bit odd at this point

I remember you saying the same things about Savage last year... calm down.

[greeneyed]

Ricky Stuart blasted the Canberra Raiders and threatened change. His team will surprise you



Simi Sasagi - who hasn't played an NRL game since 2022 - is poised to make his Raiders debut after being included on the bench for a clash with the Parramatta Eels at Canberra Stadium on Sunday night. However, coach Ricky Stuart has opted against wholesale changes to his side, after the loss to the Sharks.

Elliott Whitehead is still sidelined with a calf injury while winger Albert Hopoate will spend another week nursing arm burns before he can make his return. Ata Mariota joins Canberra's starting line-up with Zac Hosking ruled out after suffering a concussion.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239

Ricky Stuart warns Canberra’s collapse will be “dealt with”: https://canberradaily.com.au/ricky-stua ... ealt-with/

[Canberra Milk]

Both my predictions wrong

Mooney done at the club now surely. It's actually getting a bit odd at this point

I remember you saying the same things about Savage last year... calm down.

To be fair, I think both cases have been odd. I'm not sure why we bought Saulo over the top of Mooney and slowed his progression. I can only think that Saulo/Guler/Horse are a good 5 years older than him each, and Stick prefers props to be a bit older, not rush them in... somewhat regardless of form

Anyway like the Savage case last year I agree with other commenters above, it's got to the point there's not much to say on it that hasn't been said already

[Hong Kong Raider]

I applaud Ricky for basically sticking with the same team and giving them a chance to redeem themselves.

Sasagi deserved his spot after what I saw on the weekend in NSW Cup. He’s probably the 2nd best edge forward atm that we have! I like having someone that can play in the back line on the bench due to HIAs.

Levi deserved his spot but I agree with others Woolford on the bench would have made our team stronger.

Mooney will get his chance soon. He’s on a different level to Saulo and Guler. I hope there’s been honest and transparent feedback between the coaching staff and him as to what’s needed to be selected. Hope he kills it again in reserve grade.

[Crusader]

So which club do we think Mooney will be carving up at next year?

Get your guesses in…

Dogs or Knights

[President Clinton]

Both my predictions wrong

Mooney done at the club now surely. It's actually getting a bit odd at this point

I remember you saying the same things about Savage last year... calm down.

To be fair, I think both cases have been odd. I'm not sure why we bought Saulo over the top of Mooney and slowed his progression. I can only think that Saulo/Guler/Horse are a good 5 years older than him each, and Stick prefers props to be a bit older, not rush them in... somewhat regardless of form

Anyway like the Savage case last year I agree with other commenters above, it's got to the point there's not much to say on it that hasn't been said already

I thought Savage came back from the break a few kgs overweight and then suffered injuries that set him back.

[Crusader]

Does this confirm the end of the Guler era

[Hong Kong Raider]

What I would be interested in is what brand of football that we will play this weekend. I hope we don’t just revert to the one pass hit ups but play eyes up football and still spread it in our own half if we see chances. That would worry Parra more.

[BJ]

All I can think re Mooney, maybe once Stick picks him, he'll pick him forever, like he does with other favourites

But it's very unlikely other clubs wouldn't be knocking and fairly hard

Exactly. There are a few clubs that need middle forwards. Some cough Melbourne cough could get him at an absolute bargain

I don’t believe Mooney is going anywhere for a bargain. His manager is after a solid contract upgrade from an above base contract current wage.

[Colk]

All I can think re Mooney, maybe once Stick picks him, he'll pick him forever, like he does with other favourites

But it's very unlikely other clubs wouldn't be knocking and fairly hard

Exactly. There are a few clubs that need middle forwards. Some cough Melbourne cough could get him at an absolute bargain

I don’t believe Mooney is going anywhere for a bargain. His manager is after a solid contract upgrade from an above base contract current wage.

I should paraphrase. Relative to a bloke who is playing first grade (and he has more talent than a few middle forwards playing first grade) he would be a bargain

[Hong Kong Raider]

Does this confirm the end of the Guler era

Probably not as he signed a new contract.

Looked the goods in 2019. But since 2021 when he came back from his injury suffered against St George in 2020, there’s been countless complaints in the match threads about us losing momentum when Guler comes on - due to his slow play the balls, dropped balls, penalties or dumb **** plays in general. Hell, the forward pack even had to point and direct him to run forward in a game v Nth Qld at GIO in 2022 when we lost with a 12 point lead. He’s slow as a turtle as well. May have been useful in the Warren Ryan 80s era when there was a 5 metre rule.

Played only one half of a good game since returning from injury in 2021 - 2nd half v Melbourne Storm at AAMI in 2022.

When our depth was tested with Papa and Horse out and we needed our senior forwards to stand up, Ata, Mooney and even Saulo stood up and had better games than him in the finals match v Newcastle last year.

[Botman]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

[Hong Kong Raider]

Why don't you share with us the stats of his performance compared to the other forwards

[Azza]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

I mean it's generally easier to hold the ball if you largely stand still.

[Seiffert82]

All I can think re Mooney, maybe once Stick picks him, he'll pick him forever, like he does with other favourites

But it's very unlikely other clubs wouldn't be knocking and fairly hard

Exactly. There are a few clubs that need middle forwards. Some cough Melbourne cough could get him at an absolute bargain

I don’t believe Mooney is going anywhere for a bargain. His manager is after a solid contract upgrade from an above base contract current wage.

Mooney 100% knows he's in line to replace Papa in a year or so.

Sent from my CPH2021 using Tapatalk

[NoMan]

All I can think re Mooney, maybe once Stick picks him, he'll pick him forever, like he does with other favourites

But it's very unlikely other clubs wouldn't be knocking and fairly hard

Exactly. There are a few clubs that need middle forwards. Some cough Melbourne cough could get him at an absolute bargain

I don’t believe Mooney is going anywhere for a bargain. His manager is after a solid contract upgrade from an above base contract current wage.

Mooney 100% knows he's in line to replace Papa in a year or so.

Sent from my CPH2021 using Tapatalk

Might be worth re-signing him long term then.

[Colk]

All I can think re Mooney, maybe once Stick picks him, he'll pick him forever, like he does with other favourites

But it's very unlikely other clubs wouldn't be knocking and fairly hard

Exactly. There are a few clubs that need middle forwards. Some cough Melbourne cough could get him at an absolute bargain

I don’t believe Mooney is going anywhere for a bargain. His manager is after a solid contract upgrade from an above base contract current wage.

Mooney 100% knows he's in line to replace Papa in a year or so.

Sent from my CPH2021 using Tapatalk

Does he? Why wouldn’t you play him in this instance.

I can understand being tentative about spine positions but forwards playing on the bench shouldn’t warrant such an approach.

[Botman]

Why don't you share with us the stats of his performance compared to the other forwards

Havent done a proper work up on that. Just an offhanded look at Emre as i commented recently that if you dont like errors Emre's not your guy... and then it clicked with that "hang on, i dont actually recall him being a high error player!"

A quick look has
Mariota 4
Saulo 3
Tapine 6
Papalii 2
Hors 6
Elliott 10
Young 17

Id have to dig a little more into the games and minutes, and then look at other middles acorss the league to look at what it the norm.
Makes it tough with Fox Sports Stat Lab not having historical years... like i cant look back at 2023 right now, only 2024 stats
but backrowers aside who are often taking short balls at the line which is a high error rate play, i dont think any of our middles are particularly error prone. All things considered i bet people dont actually think Guler only made an error 1 per month last year.

To be clear though, he is not in my top 17 for our club. I've got him as our 6th best prop.

[Hong Kong Raider]

These are meaningless stats, given the disparity of time played across the forwards. What you need is errors / minute. I'd like to look at stats from 2022 onwards so you have a reasonable sample size.

Even if there's any interpretation to be gleaned from the above, they support the view that the errors are high compared to the other forwards. Further, it's not like Guler offloads or does anything with the ball compared to say, Tapine, Papa, or Horse, which may lead to more errors. My recollection of his play over the last 3 years is that he is prone to drop it stone cold or have a bad play the ball.

I thought I was fair in my comments on Guler above. I'd also like to analyse other metrics of his performance as well across all the forwards.

[Botman]

I was just doing a quick back of the hand stuff based on of all things... SuperCoach history!

Based on 2023 stats
Guler had 6 in about 981 minutes (0.006 errors p/m)
Ata had 4 in about 375 minutes (0.010)
Saulo 3 in about 615 minutes (0.004)
Tapine 6 in 1246 minutes (0.004)
Papa 2 in 811 minutes (0.002)
Hors 6 in 1360 minutes (0.004)

There is certainly an element of randomness you have to consider with this kind of thing too given the low number of errors you're talking about. The margins are razor thin and a single additional error or lack of one completely flips things
For example and i only looked at Guler in 2022:

1 error in 502 minutes (0.001 errors p/m)

TBH i dont think there is a lot of value in it. Too small a sample, too much randomness in such small error counts. Someone who knows more than me would probably say the CV on this is too high and cant be trusted to draw any meaningful conclusions.
And I dont think anyone is going to change their perception of Guler. And ill bet if you asked a Guler hater how many errors he makes, they'd say at least 1 every other game... and its not even close.

[gangrenous]

Good call Rick. Hope this team pulls it out against Parra!

[Bluesbrother]

So which club do we think Mooney will be carving up at next year?

Get your guesses in…

Dogs or Knights

Dragons

[Hong Kong Raider]

Guler had at least 2 errors alone in the second Nth Qld 2022 GIO game !

Thanks for the info. BTW I don't hate Guler, but his performances have frustrated me over the years given his upside in 2019. He didn't turn the corner like Horse. I think he is a FG and have said he would make FG at other clubs. But at the Raiders, what frustrates fans in previous years is that he is picked over other candidates that offer more impact than him as a bench forward.

[Ruben Daley]

Looked the goods in 2019. But since 2021 when he came back from his injury suffered against St George in 2020, there’s been countless complaints in the match threads about us losing momentum when Guler comes on - due to his slow play the balls, dropped balls, penalties or dumb **** plays in general.

Look, Guler isn’t in my 17 either but while we’re using simple stats to add to the discussion, Guler’s plays-of-the-ball aren’t particularly slow this season.

KNIGHTS
Saulo - 2.75
Hosking - 2.84
Smithies - 3.02
Tapine - 3.09
Papa - 3.36
Guler - 3.41
Ata - 3.73
Hudson - 4.41

TIGERS
Guler - 2.83
Papa - 2.83
Taps - 3.06
Smithies - 3.08
Saulo - 3.16
Ata - 3.31
Hosking - 3:39
Hudson - 3.60


Obviously, this isn’t going to sway anyone either but I think Guler isn’t quite as bad as made out.

Trey still should’ve played every game this season.

[Botman]

Yeah look i dont disagree broadly, that he's a FG player for a lot of clubs but not ours specifically because of how strong our middle forward room is... but i do think some of the criticism thrown at him is not fair, as above also shows. Certainly his work in Cup last week won't, or shouldnt, be good enough to get him in line of a call up.

I think given where the club is with middles, we'd have been better off letting Saulo and Guler walk and back youth. And i find it strange we didnt given that is exactly what we did with Sutton and it was proven to be 10000% the correct move.

[Dylan’s Raiders]

In general, team selections in 2024 have been good. We’ve seen players dropped and cup form rewarded but it’s just the Mooney non selection (amplified by him being off contact) which is puzzling and frustrating.

Sasagi has been playing very will at second row in cup and I suspect he will come on after 20 minutes with Ata to move into the middle rotation if this side is to remain as named.

[Botman]

Sasagi has been playing very will at second row in cup and I suspect he will come on after 20 minutes with Ata to move into the middle rotation if this side is to remain as named.

I think so too but i'd just cut out the middle man
Maybe they're worried about Sasagi playing 80 in his first FG in a little while but he looks fit to me, the type of guy who does have a motor
I'd start him and if i have to spell him, cross that bridge when we come to it

Also like the idea of that starting team actually having Smithies out at Edge over Mariota... think he is more likley to hang defensively than Ata. But i cant fault that too much. Ata has handled minutes at edge quite well this year

[Dylan’s Raiders]

I didn’t actually watch the press conference so only just saw this:

“Usually when our bench go on, we’ve been keeping the momentum over the the start of the season.

“When Joe and Papa went off tonight. I’ve got trust in those players to go on.

“But (against Cronulla) we lost everything. We lost all momentum. The whole game changed.”

More reason to split them up imo and despite Saulo improving his game, he doesn’t make enough metres and I can’t see that changing.

[dubby]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

While I agree, I still remember his dropped ball that was fortuitously awarded a penalty. I think that sticks in the minds of people.

And this place can be an echo chamber.

[dubby]

I didn’t actually watch the press conference so only just saw this:

“Usually when our bench go on, we’ve been keeping the momentum over the the start of the season.

“When Joe and Papa went off tonight. I’ve got trust in those players to go on.

“But (against Cronulla) we lost everything. We lost all momentum. The whole game changed.”

More reason to split them up imo and despite Saulo improving his game, he doesn’t make enough metres and I can’t see that changing.

Saulo is not a metre eater like Papa or Tapine. He attributes to momentum via a quick PTB and actually has decent footwork. He thwarts opposition momentum with his work around the ruck and kick chase.

[Billy Walker]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

Not on the GH - surely not

[Botman]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

While I agree, I still remember his dropped ball that was fortuitously awarded a penalty. I think that sticks in the minds of people.

And this place can be an echo chamber.

Defined irony.

[Billy Walker]

Funny about the dropped balls things, i was looking at that the other day
He played 25 games last year and had 6 errors... There is certainly a narrative out there about him that isn't always supported by facts.

While I agree, I still remember his dropped ball that was fortuitously awarded a penalty. I think that sticks in the minds of people.

And this place can be an echo chamber.

Amber amber amber….

[gerg]

I didn’t actually watch the press conference so only just saw this:

“Usually when our bench go on, we’ve been keeping the momentum over the the start of the season.

“When Joe and Papa went off tonight. I’ve got trust in those players to go on.

“But (against Cronulla) we lost everything. We lost all momentum. The whole game changed.”

More reason to split them up imo and despite Saulo improving his game, he doesn’t make enough metres and I can’t see that changing.

I noted this in sharks gameday thread before watching the press conference. It's something I noticed.

Vs Knights, Frizell scored in the 30th minute.
Vs Tigers, they got on a roll off the back of Api, scoring in the 24th and 27th minute
Vs Warriors, they scored in the 61st minute before Papalii came back on in the 63rd minute and Warriors backed it up quickly with another try in the 64th minute
Vs Sharks, they scored 4 tries while Papalii and Tapine were off.

And like I said in the sharks gameday thread I don't care if they desperately want to be on the field at the same time we are probably better to split them.

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[RedRaider]

I didn’t actually watch the press conference so only just saw this:

“Usually when our bench go on, we’ve been keeping the momentum over the the start of the season.

“When Joe and Papa went off tonight. I’ve got trust in those players to go on.

“But (against Cronulla) we lost everything. We lost all momentum. The whole game changed.”

More reason to split them up imo and despite Saulo improving his game, he doesn’t make enough metres and I can’t see that changing.

The momentum player for the Raiders in NSW Cup is Mooney. If the Coach is looking to maintain momentum then pick the player who can provide it.

On a completely separate note, there has just been a replay of the Good Friday match between St Helens and Wigan. That was as tough and hard as any NRL game I've watched this year. St Helens won 12-4. Played at high intensity and good pace. Based on that game the standard of footy in ESL for the top sides, is very high. They played it out at high tempo for the full 80 minutes too. Something for the Raiders players to learn from.