Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels
Sunday 7 April, 6:15pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 3:45pm
NSW Cup: Raiders v Eels: 4:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers. Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 80 per cent. Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm Min 11 Max 21
The Canberra Raiders are licking their wounds this week, and return to the safe haven of Canberra Stadium in Round 5. They host the Parramatta Eels on Sunday night - who will also be desperate after suffering a last gasp loss to the Tigers.
Last round: 2024 Round 4. Cronulla Sharks 36 - Canberra Raiders 22. It was an embarrassing performance from the Raiders. Dismal too. Those were words Raiders coach Ricky Stuart used after the match. To say it was diabolical is probably not going too far. The Raiders led 18-0, after 25 minutes, and then conceded the next five tries straight to the Sharks. It was a fade to put the regular Raiders' fades to shame. As someone said on social media, this fade even started before half time. Canberra's game plan of the opening few weeks - play it tight, up the middle, kick long and kick to the corners - was largely missing. No one with a calm, level head took control when it was needed.
More on Round 4: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders will be without second rower Zac Hosking, after he failed a concussion test in Sunday's match up with the Sharks. Elliott Whitehead also remains sidelined with a calf injury, so Ata Mariota will start in the second row this week. He'll be backed up by Simi Sasagi on the bench. Sasagi will make his NRL club debut in the match.
Coach Ricky Stuart has left his backline unchanged, with Albert Hopoate still unavailable due to the burns to his arm that he suffered in a barbeque accident. Stuart has also resisted the temptation to make changes to the prop rotation. He expressed concerns about the impact of his bench forwards after the loss to the Sharks.
The Eels have half Mitchell Moses on the sidelines for an extended period (until Round 12) due to a foot injury. Rookie Blaize Talagi has retained his place alongside Dylan Brown in the halves. Bryce Cartwright (ribs) will again be unavailable this week. Bailey Simonsson comes into the centres, with Morgan Harper dropping to the reserves list. Wiremu Greig has been added to the bench
Late changes: Both teams left their starting teams unchanged, 1-17, on Saturday evening. The Raiders retained Kaeo Weekes and Trey Mooney on the extended bench, while the Eels have kept Daejarn Asi and Morgan Harper as reserves.
History: Canberra has won 33 of 64 games against the Parramatta Eels. The Raiders have won five of the past 10 matches against the Eels - but just twice in the past seven.
In Round 6 of 2021, the Raiders trailed by two points at half time, but didn't score a point in the second half, crashing to a 35-10 defeat at Canberra Stadium. The Green Machine produced a courageous 12-10 win in Round 19 on the Gold Coast. Jordan Rapana produced a stunning try saving tackle on Maika Sivo at the death - securing the narrow victory.
In 2022, the Raiders led 20-16 early in the second half of the clash with the Eels at Canberra Stadium. But Raiders faded in the second half, with Parramatta running out 28-20 winners. The Raiders were later humiliated by the Eels, 40-4, in the Week 2 finals game at Western Sydney Stadium. Last year, the Raiders won the only clash between the two sides, 26-18 at Canberra Stadium.
The Raiders have won 19 of 25 games played against the Eels at Canberra Stadium. Parramatta has won only three times at the venue since the turn of the century - for an 18 per cent win rate. However, they've also won two of the past three of those games.
2023 Round 11: Raiders 26 defeated Eels 18 at Canberra Stadium
2022 Finals Week 2: Eels 40 defeated Raiders 4 at Western Sydney Stadium
2022 Round 12: Eels 28 defeated Raiders 20 at Canberra Stadium
2021 Round 19: Raiders 12 defeated Eels 10 at Robina Stadium
2021 Round 6: Eels 35 defeated Raiders 10 at Canberra Stadium
Form: Raiders: LWWLL
Eels: LWLWL
After a good start to the season, the Raiders are now sitting on back to back losses to the Warriors (18-10) and Sharks (36-22). The Eels are coming off a one point loss to the Tigers (17-16) at Western Sydney Stadium on Easter Monday. Aidan Sezer kicked the winning field goal in the final minute, while Clint Gutherson failed with a penalty goal attempt after the siren had sounded.
Betting: The Raiders are surprise $1.78 favourites, with the Eels paying $2.08. The Eels have 1.5 points start in the line betting. The Eels hav3 shortened slightly over the week.
Stat attack: Two weeks ago, the Raiders were on top of the competition ladder. But after a couple of losses, they have plunged to eighth. That happens at this time of year, of course. It is quite a congested table, with the leading six teams on six competition points. Both the Raiders and Eels are only two competition points adrift.
When you look at the numbers, there's very little separating the Raiders from the ninth placed Eels. They are the top two teams for set completions and possession share. The Eels rank first in the league for offloads - so that is something the Raiders will have to watch.
The Raiders and Jamal Fogarty lead the competition for most kick metres. Fogarty ranks second for all kicks (78) and attacking kicks (29), behind Shaun Johnson. Raiders fullback Jordan Rapana is third for most runs - but 13th for most run metres (677). Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards is the leader there, with over 1000 metres gained in four games. Canberra lock Morgan Smithies is the leading decoy runner (45) in the NRL.
2024 Season record: Raiders 2 and 2 (8th, +14), 1 and 0 at home
Eels 2 and 2 (9th, +13), 0 and 1 away
Attack: Raiders 23 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 4th on average tries scored
Eels 22 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked equal 8th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 8th on average tries conceded
Eels 19 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 10th on average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 53 per cent, Eels 54 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 84 per cent, Eels 84 per cent
Running: Raiders 1627 running metres per match, ranked 10th
Eels 1643 running metres per match, ranked 8th
Tackle breaks: Raiders 28, Eels 31 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 5, Eels 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Eels 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Eels 15 per match
Kicking: Raiders 692 kicking metres per match, ranked 1st
Eels 573 kicking metres per match, ranked 12th
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1386, Eels 1295 per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 27, Eels 28 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 12, Eels 12 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 89 per cent, Eels 88 per cent
Errors: Raiders 9, Eels 9 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Eels 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 6, Eels 8 per match
My tip: There is not much difference in the 2024 statistics of the two teams, with the Raiders a shade in front in a few key areas. Both teams lost in Round 4. But the Raiders' performance in their last outing was a very clear step below the Eels, for mine. So the fact the Raiders are narrow favourites was a bit of a surprise to me. Still, I'm going to allow the heart rule the head in tipping this game. Ricky Stuart has largely stuck with the team that lost to the Sharks, showing faith that they can turn it around. I've a feeling they will. Raiders by two.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. James Schiller
3. Matt Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joe Tapine (c)
11. Hudson Young
12. Ata Mariota
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Corey Horsburgh
16. Simi Sasagi
17. Pasami Saulo
18. Kaeo Weekes
20. Trey Mooney
Injury/Suspension
Albert Hopoate, Burns (Round 6)
Elliott Whitehead, Calf (Round 6)
Zac Hosking, Concussion (Round 6)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (TBA)
Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson
2. Maika Sivo
3. Viliami Penisini
4. Bailey Simonsson
5. Sean Russell
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Dylan Brown
8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
9. Joey Lussick
10. Junior Paulo
11. Shaun Lane
12. Ryan Matterson
13. J'maine Hopgood
14. Luca Moretti
15. Wiremu Greig
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. Kelma Tuilagi
19. Daejarn Asi
22. Morgan Harper
Injury/Suspension
Bryce Cartwright, Ribs (TBA)
Mitchell Moses, Foot (Round 12)
Officials
Referee: Adam Gee
Touch judges: David Munro, Drew Oultram
Video referee: Kasey Badger
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersEels
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