Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos
Saturday 20 April, 7:35pm
Lang Park
Gates open: 6:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Rain increasing.
Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 90 per cent. Possible rainfall: 2 to 15 mm Min 17 Max 25The Canberra Raiders head to Brisbane in Round 7 for a clash with the Broncos at Lang Park.
Last round: 2024 Round 6. Canberra Raiders 21 - Gold Coast Titans 20. A win in the last minute of golden point. A golden charge down from Chevy Stewart kept the game alive. A golden run from Ethan Strange provided the opportunity for the match winner. And Jamal Fogarty delivered the golden field goal. It was extraordinary finish.
The Raiders probably shouldn't have been in the situation where all that was necessary. They had the possession and territory to have won the game decisively. Canberra led 20-10 with less than 10 minutes remaining, after James Schiller scored in the corner. But somehow, the Raiders conceded two tries to Titans winger Alofiana Khan-Pereira in the space of four minutes. And Titans centre Brian Kelly kicked his first goal in eight years - from the sideline, after the hooter had sounded - to force golden point.
More on Round 6: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders second rower Zac Hosking dislocated his shoulder in the win over the Titans on Sunday night. He is having scans to determine if surgery will be needed, but will be sidelined for at least 6-8 weeks. Ata Mariota replaces Hosking in the second row, with Simi Sasagi added to the bench.
The Broncos have some high profile players on their injury list, including Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas. They are unchanged from last week.
Late changes: On Friday evening, the Raiders omitted Zac Woolford, Nick Cotric and Peter Hola from their squad. The starting 17 for the Broncos was left unchanged.
History: The Raiders have won 23 of 56 matches against the Brisbane Broncos, with one draw. That’s just a 41 per cent win rate. The Raiders suffered a six game losing streak against the Broncos between 2014 and 2018. But Canberra has now won four of the past six contests between the clubs. It was a fairly narrow win for the Raiders in 2019 (26-22), but there were big margins in 2020 (36-8) and 2021 (38-16). That trend was halted in Round 14 of 2022, when Brisbane produced a six point win at Lang Park (24-18).
The Raiders produced one of their best perfomances of the 2023 season when they beat the Broncos (20-14) in Round 6. Canberra had Joe Tapine, Jack Wighton, Xavier Savage, Nick Cotric, Danny Levi, Matt Frawley and Ata Mariota on the sidelines. Canberra had just come off a 53-12 drubbing at the hands of the Panthers. But some outstanding defence and Jarrod Croker's goal kicking won it for the Green Machine at Lang Park. It wasn't pretty In Round 26 at Canberra Stadium, with the Raiders losing, 29-18.
2023 Round 26: Broncos 29 defeated Raiders 18
2023 Round 6: Raiders 20 defeated Broncos 14
2022 Round 14: Broncos 24 defeated Raiders 18
2021 Round 14: Raiders 38 defeated Broncos 16
2020 Round 14: Raiders 36 defeated Broncos 8
The Raiders have won just five of the 25 games played in Brisbane between the clubs.
Form: Raiders: WLLWW
Broncos: WLWLW
The Broncos are coming off a 28-14 win over the Redcliffe Dolphins at Lang Park on Friday night. However, they haven't put back to back wins together all season. They have produced recent wins over the Rabbitohs (28-18) and Cowboys (38-12) - as well as recent losses to the Panthers (34-12) and Storm (34-32). The Raiders have three wins from their past five.
Betting: The Broncos are $1.40 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.97. The Raiders have 8.5 points start in the line betting. The Broncos' odds have shortened over the week.
Stat attack: The Raiders sit in third place on the ladder - on points differential. But it is still a congested competition table. The Cowboys, Dolphins and Panthers are also on eight competition points. Meanwhile there are five teams - including the Broncos - on six points that are outside the top eight. One loss and teams will tumble pretty quickly.
The Raiders rank first in the league for possession share and completion rate. It's an unusual spot for the Raiders to be in, really. Canberra also ranks first in the NRL for post contact metres, kick metres, dummy half runs and fewest missed tackles. That tells you a fair bit about the Raiders' style of play in 2024.
2024 Season record: Raiders 4 and 2 (3rd, +48), 1 and 2 away
Broncos 3 and 3 (10th, +16), 3 and 0 at home
Attack: Raiders 26 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 3rd on average tries scored
Broncos 25 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 5th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 5th on average tries conceded
Broncos 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th on average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 54 per cent, Broncos 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 84 per cent, Broncos 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1807 running metres per match, ranked 3rd
Broncos 1698 running metres per match, ranked 7th
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Broncos 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 5, Broncos 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 4, Broncos 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Broncos 7 per match
Kicking: Raiders 671 kicking metres per match, ranked 1st
Broncos 581 kicking metres per match, ranked 9th
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1355, Broncos 1433 per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 26, Broncos 28 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 12, Broncos 14 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 89 per cent, Broncos 89 per cent
Errors: Raiders 10, Broncos 13 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Broncos 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 7, Broncos 5 per match
My tip: The statistics suggest that the Raiders will be right in the contest with the Broncos. Yet the Broncos are clear favourites. That's not entirely surprising. Brisbane love playing at Lang Park and have won their past five games straight at home. They've got a 57 per cent win rate at the ground. They have some injury concerns. But they showed how dangerous they can be in the win over the Dolphins, even without key players like Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas.
The Raiders have their own injury woes. Their last game form was not strong. And they have just a 20 per cent win rate against the Broncos in Brisbane. They have won just three from 15 games against the Broncos at Lang Park, since it was rebuilt. So lots of things point to a Broncos win. I am hoping that we might see an against all odds victory - like we saw last year against the Broncos in Brisbane. But the head says Broncos by eight.
Canberra Raiders
1. Chevy Stewart
2. James Schiller
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Ata Mariota
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Simi Sasagi
16. Trey Mooney
17. Pasami Saulo
18. Kaeo Weekes
19. Emre Guler
Injury/Suspension
Albert Hopoate, Burns (Round 8)
Elliott Whitehead, Calf (Round 8-9)
Corey Horsburgh, Groin (Round 11-13)
Jordan Rapana, Knee (Round 11-13)
Zac Hosking, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Indefinite)
Brisbane Broncos
1. Reece Walsh
2. Corey Oates
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Selwyn Cobbo
5. Jesse Arthars
6. Ezra Mam
7. Jock Madden
8. Corey Jensen
9. Billy Walters
10. Fletcher Baker
11. Jaiyden Hunt
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Xavier Willison
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Tristan Sailor
18. Martin Taupau
20. Jordan Pereira
Injury/Suspension
Payne Haas, Knee (Round 8)
Brendan Piakura, Ankle (Round 8)
Adam Reynolds, Hamstring (Round 8-9)
Deine Mariner, Back (Round 9-10)
Officials
Referee: Chris Butler
Touch judges: Jon Stone, Jarrod Cole
Video referee: Kasey Badger
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLBroncosRaiders
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