2024 Round 9 v Sea Eagles: Game Day

[greeneyed]

2024 Round 9 v Sea Eagles: Game Day



Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles
Friday 3 May, 6:00pm
Brookvale Oval
Gates open: 4:30pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League, Kayo
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Chance of any rain: 100 per cent. Possible rainfall: 7 to 35 mm Min 14 Max 20

The Raiders head to the northern beaches of Sydney in Round 9 - after an embarrassing defeat and a very short turnaround - for a clash with the Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval.

Last round: 2024 Round 8. Cronulla Sharks 40 - Canberra Raiders 0. It was a beautiful, slightly crisp Autumn afternoon. The ANZAC weekend, and the pre match ceremony was moving. The Viking Clap unusually then took place with both teams present on the field. It was a good build up to the clash, but it soon turned for the home fans. Danny Levi bombed a certain try mid way through the first half - dropping the ball cold. The Sharks promptly went to the other end. A 12 point turnaround. It was the beginning of the end.



More on Round 8: As I saw it

Team news: Raiders captain Elliott Whitehead (calf) returns in the second row, with Simi Sasagi dropping out of the top 17. It will be just the second appearance of the season for Whitehead. Young fullback Chevy Stewart has been dropped after only three matches in firsts. He’s been replaced by Albert Hopoate. James Schiller is the other casualty from the loss to the Sharks, with Nick Cotric preferred on the wing. No other players have been dropped, but Pasami Saulo has been ruled out with a back injury. Emre Guler has been added to the bench.

Sea Eagles second rower Haumole Olakau'atu has been banned for two matches for a dangerous throw on Eels forward Shaun Lane. Half back Daly Cherry-Evans has also charged for his part in the tackle, but successfully sought a downgrade to a Grade 1 charge at the judiciary on Tuesday night. He’s received a $750 fine instead of a two week ban and is free to play. Olakau'atu has been replaced by Ethan Bullemor. Prop Toafofoa Sipley (knee) will return on the bench.

Late changes: The Raiders retained Simi Sasagi and Zac Woolford on their reserves list on Thursday evening, while the Sea Eagles left their unchanged when reducing their list to 19 players.

History: The Raiders have won 23 of 63 games against the Manly Sea Eagles, and drawn one. Since late 2004, the Raiders have won only eight of 30 contests, and three of the past 10. If you add in matches against the Northern Eagles, the numbers are no better. Overall, Canberra has won 25 of 69 contests, a pretty awful 36 per cent win rate.

In 2021, an Origin affected match at Brookvale Oval saw the Green Machine get an unexpected, 30-16, win. But six weeks later, the Sea Eagles proved to be the bogey team again, beating the Raiders, 19-18, at Lang Park. A Daly Cherry-Evans field goal, with less than two minutes remaining, proved to be the match winner. It put Manly ahead by seven, and a last gasp try from the Raiders was too late. The Sea Eagles added to the Raiders' woes by beating them in Mudgee, 25-6, in Round 4 of 2022. Canberra finally got a little revenge in Round 24 - blowing the Sea Eagles away, 48-6, at Canberra Stadium.

But it was a sorry tale for Canberra in last year's only contest between the clubs - beaten 42-14 at home. A supposedly lame Tom Trbojevic scored a hat trick.

The Raiders have a poor record at Brookvale, winning 11 of 30 matches played. The Raiders have won only three of the past 10 matches at the ground.


2022 Round 12 Sea Eagles 42 defeated Raiders 14 at Canberra Stadium


2022 Round 24 Canberra 48 defeated Sea Eagles 6 at Canberra Stadium


2022 Round 4 Sea Eagles 25 defeated Raiders 6 at Glen Willow Stadium, Mudgee


2021 Round 23 Sea Eagles 19 defeated Raiders 18 at Lang Park


2021 Round 17 Raiders 30 defeated Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval

Form: Raiders LWWLL
Sea Eagles LWDWW

The Sea Eagles are coming into this game after back to back wins over the Titans (34-30) and Eels (32-18). They were flawed performances, but they still got there. They haven't been beaten since the Round 4 loss to the Dragons (20-12). They've also had a recent win over the Panthers (32-18) and a draw against the Warriors (22-22) in Auckland. The Raiders now sit on big, back to back losses.

Betting: The Sea Eagles are $1.20 favourites, with the Raiders paying $4.45. The Raiders have 13.5 points start in the line betting. The odds of a Raiders win have blown out significantly, following the news that Daly Cherry-Evans was cleared by the judiciary.

Stat attack: The Raiders were on top of the ladder after the opening two rounds. But this week, they've fallen to 10th, the first time this season they've been out of the top eight. Canberra had a positive points differential of 48 points after Round 6 - the best in the competition. After two big losses, they are now in negative territory.

The Raiders are still the team with the best share of possession so far this year (Sea Eagles second). They also rank first for kick metres. Second for most post contact metres and dummy half runs. Third for completions and supports. But most of their numbers have quickly taken a turn for the worse.

The Sea Eagles rank first for missed tackles. The Raiders are now third in that department, after missing a whopping 64 tackles against the Sharks. Manly ranks second for ineffective tackles (Raiders 13th) and third for most errors (Raiders sixth).

Tom Trbojevic is equal first in the NRL for most errors (17), alongside Ben Hunt and Zac Lomax. Obviously, Trbojevic delivers other things as well. He is equal first in the NRL for line break assists (9) and is Manly's top try scorer this year (5). Xavier Savage (5) and James Schiller (5) are the leading try scorers for the Raiders.



2024 Season record: Raiders 4 and 4 (10th, -16), 1 and 3 away
Sea Eagles 5 and 2, 1 draw (4th, +39), 4 and 0 at home

Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked equal 10th on average tries scored
Sea Eagles 27 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 6th on average tries scored

Defence: Raiders 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th on fewest average tries conceded
Sea Eagles 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 12th on fewest average tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 53 per cent, Sea Eagles 52 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 81 per cent, Sea Eagles 76 per cent

Running: Raiders 1755 running metres per match
Sea Eagles 1706 running metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Sea Eagles 30 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 6 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 3 per match

Offloads: Raiders 8, Sea Eagles 9 per match

Kicking: Raiders 638 kicking metres per match
Sea Eagles 562 kicking metres per match

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1435, Sea Eagles 1432 per match

Missed tackles: Raiders 32, Sea Eagles 36 per match

Ineffective tackles: Raiders 12, Sea Eagles 16 per match

Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Sea Eagles 86 per cent

Errors: Raiders 11, Sea Eagles 12 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 5 per match

Penalties awarded: Raiders 6, Sea Eagles 6 per match

My tip: The Sea Eagles are warm favourites, deservedly so. They will miss Haumole Olakau’atu, but Daly Cherry-Evans has avoided suspension. The statistics are closer than you might think. They do point to some weaknesses in the Sea Eagles' game, notably, their defence. But the head says that this should be a win, and a good one, for the home team. Sea Eagles by 13+. I wish it were not so.

Canberra Raiders

1. Albert Hopoate
2. Xavier Savage
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Nick Cotric
6. Ethan Strange
7. Kaeo Weekes
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Morgan Smithies

14. Tom Starling
15. Ata Mariota
16. Trey Mooney
17. Emre Guler

18. Simi Sasagi
20. Zac Woolford

Injury/Suspension
Pasami Saulo, Back (Round 11)
Corey Horsburgh, Groin (Round 11-13)
Jordan Rapana, Knee (Round 11-13)
Jamal Fogarty, Bicep (Round 20-22)
Zac Hosking, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Indefinite)

Manly Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Jason Saab
3. Tolutau Koula
4. Reuben Garrick
5. Tommy Talau
6. Luke Brooks
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Taniela Paseka
9. Lachlan Croker
10. Josh Aloiai
11. Ethan Bullemor
12. Corey Waddell
13. Jake Trbojevic

14. Karl Lawton
15. Toafofoa Sipley
16. Nathan Brown
17. Matthew Lodge

18. Aaron Woods
19. Jakob Arthur

Injury/Suspension
Ben Trbojevic, Hamstring (Round 10)
Haumole Olakau’atu, Suspension (Round 11)

Officials

Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Phil Henderson, Wyatt Raymond
Video referee: Adam Gee

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLManlyRaiders

NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here



Plus follow us on X: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[The Greenhouse]

[Kryptonite]

Game day, strap yourself in for the Levi **** show , cue Benny Hill theme


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[The Nickman]

Ugh, is that tonight? Ugh.

[bonehead]

Ugh, is that tonight? Ugh.

get up and about mate

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[Billy Walker]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

[thevikingclap on ig]

Raiders 13+

[-PJ-]

I’m bracing for a good ole fashion ambush tonight.

Raiders by 2

Nah just kiddin, we’ll be pantsed.

[dubby]

The forwards really need to step up tonight after last week's poor performance.

[Regs Revolution]

Gonna be absolute dreadful conditions out there tonight. Similar to the broncos game which means we’re toast!

Funny thing is, had a dream last night it was 30-30 after 20 mins and we were down 93-30 by the 36th minute

I kid you not, the score line might not be far off it. Manly by 30+

[Regs Revolution]

Who remembers Round 8, 2014?

[Finchy]

Gonna be absolute dreadful conditions out there tonight. Similar to the broncos game which means we’re toast!

Funny thing is, had a dream last night it was 30-30 after 20 mins and we were down 93-30 by the 36th minute

I kid you not, the score line might not be far off it. Manly by 30+

I’d believe conceding 93 points as being within the realms of possibility with this squad. It’s the scoring 30 points before halftime part that’s fanciful.

[Mickey_Raider]

I live 5 mins from Brookie and it is pissing down here. Forecast suggests that it is not going to let up all day either.

Looking forward to getting rinsed both on the field and on the hill tonight.

[Colk]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

[Colk]

Gonna be absolute dreadful conditions out there tonight. Similar to the broncos game which means we’re toast!

Funny thing is, had a dream last night it was 30-30 after 20 mins and we were down 93-30 by the 36th minute

I kid you not, the score line might not be far off it. Manly by 30+

I’d believe conceding 93 points as being within the realms of possibility with this squad. It’s the scoring 30 points before halftime part that’s fanciful.

We wouldn’t score 30 points against the Sea Eagles across two games let alone one. Not with this current side anyway

[The Nickman]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

Another massive bite, Billy! Well done

[Colk]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

Another massive bite, Billy! Well done

Can’t help myself obviously

[-PJ-]

Who remembers Round 8, 2014?

Yeah got flogged.

Do you remember Round 13 1998 ?

[Finchy]

We've only won 8 of our last 30 games against Manly over the past 20 years. Absolute bogey team. Even worse record than against our other bogey teams (Melbourne and Brisbane) over the same period.

[Regs Revolution]

Who remembers Round 8, 2014?

Yeah got flogged.

Do you remember Round 13 1998 ?

No. But we won. Wishful thinking that will be the scoreline PJ.

One could only hope.

[Billy Walker]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

Just Crabtric

[Botman]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

Just Crabtric

What is there to worry about, friend?
Ricky is the coach, he has the best seat on what the team needs, and has picked his best 17.

[BJ]

I’m only worried that the scoreboard attendant might get RSI.

[Azza]

I live 5 minutes from brookvale, it’s a swamp here today. We’re gonna get pasted. At least the blood will wash away quickly

[Mickey_Raider]

I live 5 minutes from brookvale, it’s a swamp here today. We’re gonna get pasted. At least the blood will wash away quickly

Harbord Diggity Digs before the game or what

[Dylan’s Raiders]

I live 9 hours away from Brookvale oval and it’s overcast here - hope it helps.

I hope we get beaten by only a little so I can still enjoy the rest of the weekends footy.

[Azza]

I live 5 minutes from brookvale, it’s a swamp here today. We’re gonna get pasted. At least the blood will wash away quickly

Harbord Diggity Digs before the game or what

Overpriced and pretentious since they renovated it. More finchy’s vibe. I prefer the pizzas at Harbord bowling club

[Brew]

Game day - I’m concerned about Crabtrics lack of pace against the swift manly backs. If he doesn’t let too many in we should get the win

You are not worried about Hopoate’s lack of pace or height at fullback? Not worried about Levi and Starling offering zilch at dummy half again? Or is just Cotric you are worried about.

Just Crabtric

What is there to worry about, friend?
Ricky is the coach, he has the best seat on what the team needs, and has picked his best 17.

Finally Onboard! Welcome


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[Ilanraiders]

Game day!! Go the Raiders!!

[Finchy]

I live 5 minutes from brookvale, it’s a swamp here today. We’re gonna get pasted. At least the blood will wash away quickly

Harbord Diggity Digs before the game or what

Overpriced and pretentious since they renovated it. More finchy’s vibe. I prefer the pizzas at Harbord bowling club

Pretentious? Moi?

[Drandyt]

I live 5 minutes from brookvale, it’s a swamp here today. We’re gonna get pasted. At least the blood will wash away quickly

Surely that gives us a chance?

[The Nickman]

It's funny, isn't it. In most scenarios, you'd say wet or dreadful weather benefits the underdogs, but not us.

With us, it's always anything slightly different and we're cooked. Wet weather, loss of a key player, loss of an opposition key player, milestone game, the wind changes direction, short turnaround, lack of carparks in behind the western grandstand, a shortage of hotdogs and you know we're absolutely ****.

[Azza]

It's funny, isn't it. In most scenarios, you'd say wet or dreadful weather benefits the underdogs, but not us.

With us, it's always anything slightly different and we're cooked. Wet weather, loss of a key player, loss of an opposition key player, milestone game, the wind changes direction, short turnaround, lack of carparks in behind the western grandstand, a shortage of hotdogs and you know we're absolutely ****.

Harsh but fair.

[Botman]

I was just coming here to pump the tyres up and bit and talk about how horrendous weather can be a great talent equaliser and provides the poorer team a larger number of game scripts that provide a positive outcome

But it seems Nicko has already pissed in that bowl of cornflakes

[Dylan’s Raiders]

After Brisbane, I don’t see wet weather as an equaliser. Broncos don’t hold onto the ball in dry weather let alone wet weather and we were lucky not to be beaten by more than 30.

Manly are virtually full strength, at home - I cannot see us winning this one.