Canberra Raiders v Canterbury Bulldogs
Friday 17 May, 6:00pm
Lang Park
Gates open: 4:30pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League, Kayo
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two. Cloudy. High chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 70 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Min 15 Max 24
This Magic Round clash will be a celebration of the 30th anniversary of the Raiders' 1994 Grand Final victory over the Bulldogs. For those in green, anyway. The Canberra players from that team will gather in Brisbane for a reunion, with hooker Steve Walters sounding the Viking horn to start the match.
Last round: 2024 Round 9. Canberra Raiders 26 defeated Manly Sea Eagles 24. It was a comeback for the ages. A night that will long be remembered in the history of the Green Machine. The Raiders were beaten 40-0 the previous week. In Round 9, they went to Brookvale Oval for a meeting with the Sea Eagles on a five day turnaround. Without doubt a bogey ground, without doubt a bogey side. After 30 minutes, the home team led 20-0. Remarkably, the Raiders came back from that, taking the lead for the first time in the 77th minute - with Hudson Young scoring the match winning try. It is only the fourth time Canberra has come back after being down by 20 points or more.
More on Round 9: As I saw it
Team news: Jordan Rapana (knee) returns to the team at fullback, with Sebastian Kris shifting back to centre. Albert Hopoate drops out of the top 17, and has been named as 18th man. Josh Papalii has been named at starting prop, but he still might be a late switch to the bench. Papalii started on the bench against the Sea Eagles and it was a successful tactic. Corey Horsburgh (groin) and Pasami Saulo (back) will spend more time on the sidelines.
The Bulldogs have named an unchanged top 17. Unusually, no player has been named in the No. 18 jersey, after Blake Taaffe was the 18th man last week.
Late changes: The squads will be reduced to 19 players on Thursday evening. The Raiders are 1-17, with Albert Hopoate and Zac Woolford remaining on the reserves list. Bulldogs forward Jacob Preston has been added to the second row, with Jaeman Salmon dropping out of the squad. Poasa Faamausilli comes in on the bench. Blake Taaffe and Jake Turpin remain on the extended bench.
History: The Raiders have won 36 and lost 37 matches against the Canterbury Bulldogs, nearly a 50 per cent win rate. The record has been even more favourable recently, with Canberra winning nine of the past 10 clashes - and the last eight in a row.
The two teams met in Magic Round in 2021 and it wasn't too comfortable for the Green Machine. Josh Papalii was sent off and Jack Wighton was sin binned - and the Raiders just managed a two point victory. It wasn't the best performance from the Raiders in the 14-4 win over the Dogs in 2022 either. It was, at least, the end of a five game losing streak for Canberra.
Last year, the Raiders produced a 34-30 win over the Dogs at Lang Park during Magic Round. It was a much closer encounter than it really should have been. It wasn't exactly convincing later in the year either - with Canberra winning, 36-24, at Canberra Stadium.
2023 Round 25: Raiders 36 defeated Bulldogs 24
2023 Round 10: Raiders 34 defeated Bulldogs 30
2022 Round 9: Raiders 14 defeated Bulldogs 4
2021 Round 10: Raiders 20 defeated Bulldogs 18
2020 Round 16: Raiders 34 defeated Bulldogs 20
The Raiders have won both matches played against the Bulldogs at Lang Park.
Form: Raiders WWLLW
Bulldogs WLWWL
The Bulldogs are coming off a 16-10 loss to the Panthers at Penrith. They have posted recent wins over the Knights (36-12) and Tigers (22-14). The Raiders dramatically turned things around in their last outing, after conceding 74 points in back to back losses against the Broncos (34-10) and Sharks (40-0).
Betting: The Bulldogs are $1.62 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.30. The Raiders have 3.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: Canberra has a slight advantage in attack, but the Bulldogs have been clearly superior in defence. They rank in the top three teams for average points conceded so far (Raiders 11th). The Bulldogs also rank first for the fewest running metres conceded (Raiders 9th).
The Raiders' advantages over other teams during the early part of the season are in the process of being eroded. They are now equal first with the Warriors for possession share - and second for set completions behind the Titans. The Raiders are no longer the No. 1 team for kicking metres or post contact metres.
2024 Season record: Raiders 5 and 4 (7th, -14), 2 and 3 away
Bulldogs 4 and 5 (9th, +19), 0 and 5 away
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on average tries scored
Bulldogs 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th on fewest average tries conceded
Bulldogs 17 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd on fewest average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 52 per cent, Bulldogs 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 82 per cent, Bulldogs 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1727 running metres per match
Bulldogs 1600 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Bulldogs 30 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Bulldogs 6 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Bulldogs 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Bulldogs 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 628 kicking metres per match
Bulldogs 630 kicking metres per match
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1416, Bulldogs 1299 per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 31, Bulldogs 38 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 12, Bulldogs 16 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Bulldogs 87 per cent
Errors: Raiders 10, Bulldogs 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 4, Bulldogs 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 6, Bulldogs 5 per match
My tip: The Bulldogs are favourites in this game. They have shown a good deal of improvement in 2024, after seven years in the doldrums. They last made the finals in 2016, and took the wooden spoon in 2021. They weren't far off the spoon last year, finishing 15th. But they now have a chance of breaking their eight game losing streak against the Raiders. Their defence is particularly good. The Raiders have been seriously impacted by injury. However, the likely return of Rapana, and the big comeback win against the Sea Eagles, will give the Green Machine a boost. They'll also be very keen to produce a win, with the Raiders' 1994 premiership winning team watching on. The milestone match effect does worry me a bit. The Raiders have not recently done well in those games. On balance, the numbers and injury lists point to a Bulldogs win. But I am going to be optimistic. Raiders by six.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matt Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Kaeo Weekes
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Ata Mariota
16. Trey Mooney
17. Emre Guler
18. Albert Hopoate
19. Zac Woolford
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Groin (Round 12-13)
Jamal Fogarty, Bicep (Round 20-22)
Zac Hosking, Shoulder (Round 21-22)
Pasami Saulo, Back (Indefinite)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Indefinite)
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Connor Tracey
2. Jacob Kiraz
3. Bronson Xerri
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Matt Burton
7. Drew Hutchison
8. Max King
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Samuel Hughes
11. Viliame Kikau
17. Jacob Preston
13. Kurt Mann
14. Bailey Hayward
15. Josh Curran
16. Kurtis Morrin
19. Poasa Faamausili
20. Blake Taaffe
21. Jake Turpin
Injury/Suspension
Ryan Sutton, Knee (Round 12)
Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Knee (Round 12)
Chris Patolo, Knee (Round 14-16)
Karl Oloapu, Neck (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Matt Noyen, Chris Sutton
Video referee: Adam Gee
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersBulldogs
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Plus follow us on X: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
